Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 02-03-2018, 12:36 AM   #61
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 2,228
You say it's only a paper moon
sailing over a cardboard sea.....
HadEnuff is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 02-03-2018, 01:30 AM   #62
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: Seattle
Posts: 81
Quote:
Originally Posted by LOL! View Post
Maybe. Maybe not.

There were people not paying attention today, so this weekend they will have a chance to see what happened to their portfolios.

One group will say, "OMG! I lost a ton and need to get out."
Another group will say, "OMG! Buying opportunity!"

We won't know which is the larger group until next week.
Buying monday (so everyone else should probably wait and watch it go down even more due to my luck!)
limeyx is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 02:49 AM   #63
Moderator Emeritus
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 45,264
Well, I guess we are finally out of that dreamy la-la land where the market always soars upwards, day after day. Time to get back to the real world.
__________________
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61.
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 04:37 AM   #64
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,466
Quote:
Originally Posted by gayl View Post
Yeah well it isn't a loss unless you need to sell. I see a buying opportunity
down is down , realizing a gain is a tax able event .

there is no difference between closing a position each night and buying the same asset or even another in the morning vs keeping the same money in play over night in the same investment .

there is no such thing as only a loss on paper . if you fell by 50% your net worth is down 50% . it may come back or it may not . setting draw rates is based on portfolio value not whether you sell or not
mathjak107 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 04:49 AM   #65
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 17,101
Yawn. It’s all noise in the long term...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 50% equity funds / 30% bond funds / 20% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 05:11 AM   #66
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 29,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobLJ View Post
How long has it been since we saw a 5-10% correction? (of course corrections sometimes turn into bears.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
We had a very powerful correction from July of 2015 through Feb of 2016. It coincided with the crash in oil prices.

I think in August alone it dropped 10%, but it didn’t stop until Feb 2016.
I looked at my diary. Audrey has good memory.

On 2015/07/20, the S&P was at 2128. On 2015/08/25, it was at 1868. That's a 12.2% drop.

It climbed back up to 2078 on 2015/12/29, then crashed down to 1829 on 2016/02/11. That's another 12% drop.

But from 2128 in mid 2015 to early 2016, the total drop is only 14%.

The S&P did not regain the high of 2128 until July 2016. So, it's one year of no gain, which is not really that bad.

If one set his rebalance band at 10%, he could have made a few bucks (or not).
__________________
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 05:17 AM   #67
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 29,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
down is down , realizing a gain is a tax able event .

there is no difference between closing a position each night and buying the same asset or even another in the morning vs keeping the same money in play over night in the same investment .

there is no such thing as only a loss on paper . if you fell by 50% your net worth is down 50% . it may come back or it may not . setting draw rates is based on portfolio value not whether you sell or not
What you said is true, and I agree.

However, when I say "loss" instead of loss, I was referring to giving back some of the recent excessive gains that I did not really deserve.

Still, I prefer to keep all of that undeserved gain. I fail because I am just not a good market timer. How else would I want to lose a 6-figure sum in one week?
__________________
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 06:10 AM   #68
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,466
one thing i learned is at any point in time it is all your money the same as a bank account . it is just that investments have a variable balance .

but there is no such thing as it is the house's money . in fact i started in 1987 . today that money is a 7 figure portfolio . if i go by the term the "houses's money " i can lose 98% of my money and call it okay because it wsn't my money .

investors thinking things are only paper losses can make for some poor decisions .
mathjak107 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 06:13 AM   #69
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,466
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
Yawn. It’s all noise in the long term...
i hope at this age we have a long term lol .

the problem with bear markets is while they recover in nominal terms fairly quick , real returns are another story . we have had quite a few recoveries in nominal terms that were fairly short but actually took more than a decade in dollars to recover . waiting a decade just to break even at 65 can be rough .

but we all invest , hope for the best and keep our fingers crossed
mathjak107 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 06:22 AM   #70
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 6,472
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
Yawn. Its all noise in the long term...
+1 If I hold my chart at arm's length it still looks like a straight line upward. This morning I see that while I was 7 months ahead of my 7% plan, I'm now still 2 months ahead of plan.

Last night, out with friends, I picked up a dinner check for $600 and didn't think twice about the market.

Cash flow-wise, we live off our dividends; the monthly yields came in just fine on Wednesday morning--and will also at the end of this month.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
marko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 06:35 AM   #71
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 29,905
Talk about undeserved gains, I may want to take back what I said.

Investing is always perilous. Ideally, the market should go up a steady (insert your number here) 3-4% after inflation. But it doesn't. It goes up 20-30% one year, then drops 10% the next. And so, the occasional outsize gain is to make up for lousy years, such as after a "Wh***".

If the investor jumps in/out at the wrong time and loses money, it's his fault, or at least he does not know how the market works. If he stays in, he is compensated for the patience.

OK, I know how the market works. But can I do even better, meaning conquering greed and fear to buy when others are scared, and sell when they are greedy? Should I not get compensated for being the contrarian trader to provide market liquidity, to be the other side of the trade for those greedy/fearful people?

I looked at my own performance in the above mentioned period of July 2015 to July 2016, when the S&P dropped 14% from 2128, then climbed back up to the same point almost a year later.

It was not that great. I made 1.5%. Hah! That's about the same as the S&P dividend, given my AA. Actually, I should have made a bit more, because my cash also has some low yield to add a bit of return.

While I have a daily log of the total value of my investable accounts, looking up and back analyzing all of my trades would take a lot more work. But I do remember repositioning most of my energy stocks to something else. They made good money for me the previous years, and hanging on to them would mean giving back all that gain.

Hence, the trades I made in that flat year were still good moves. They could have been better, if I did not hang on to those energy stocks that long.
__________________
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 07:03 AM   #72
Recycles dryer sheets
Choices's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Rural VT
Posts: 302
We have never sold when the market was down, we used fresh cash from employment to balance things out. We are now retired and next year I have to pull a RMD. Trying not to outthink myself!
Saving was way easier than drawing down but we are damned glad we have something to draw down.
My guess is, some of those 401-k millionaires who were publishing account statements on social media ( who does this ?) may be in for a queezy ride.
Choices is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 07:29 AM   #73
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
donheff's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 10,463
If this turns into a real correction I will rebalance and get back into an irrationally exuberant mood.

So what is the opposite of "WHEEEEE." We need a slogan and an icon to toss around when bulls are stampeding.
__________________
Every man is, or hopes to be, an Idler. -- Samuel Johnson
donheff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 08:01 AM   #74
Full time employment: Posting here.
RetiredGypsy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 979
Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff View Post
so what is the opposite of "wheeeee." we need a slogan and an icon to toss around when bulls are stampeding.
eeeeew?
__________________
I'm free and I like it!
RetiredGypsy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 08:29 AM   #75
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
USGrant1962's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 1,820
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
investors thinking things are only paper losses can make for some poor decisions .
In other threads I keep seeing people say they "don't want to lock in losses," which is a similarly meaningless concept. Your portfolio does not have memory (except for taxes) and does not know how it got to where it is today. Today's portfolio is all you have.
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged

"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong. - H.L. Mencken
USGrant1962 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 08:42 AM   #76
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,466
exactly , it is all your money . like working on commission it varies but it is yours to take at any point .whether you choose to or not does not change the value
mathjak107 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 09:25 AM   #77
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
GravitySucks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,040
Returned from a month out of town thinking I'd rebalance on Friday.
No need now. Left everything alone. I try not to do anything when CNBC is playing Its The End Of The World (and I feel fine.)
__________________
No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
GravitySucks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 09:27 AM   #78
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
redduck's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: yonder
Posts: 2,851
Quote:
Originally Posted by marko View Post
Last night, out with friends, I picked up a dinner check for $600 and didn't think twice about the market.
Hi, Uncle marko...

I'm glad you're still able to have a good time at your advanced age. But, I'm concerned that maybe your spendthrift generous ways might be cutting into my inheritance. Please be careful.
Your most devoted and loving nephew...
redduck
__________________
When the people shall have nothing more to eat, they will eat the rich--philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau
redduck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 09:52 AM   #79
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,668
This thread reminds me of the threads and posts in October of 2007 and the flak I encountered when a member posted that he was already 100% in stocks and wished he had more money to invest after the “correction” of the first few days of October — the stock market had fallen in the summer about 10% and then rose back to the level it had been and began to fall off in October and I merely posted that is how markets top, when everyone who wants to buy has their stock quota. By 2009 most of the confidence had been eroded by the large losses, however the bond component really kept portfolios from disaster. There is an extreme confidence in stocks issued throughout this thread that is interesting to me from a investment indicator view. The anguish of 2009 has been utterly vanquished, though our hero’s at the Federal Reserve still bear the weight of 4.5 Trillion in debt purchased (equal to 60% of all US government debt issued at our optimistic outlook of October 2007) they used to pull us upon their shoulders from the mortgage mania investing malaise, and no dispersal of the burden of that debt appears to be forthcoming.

I am not predicting anything nor changing my investing portfolio any more than I had since last fall, however since 1981 we have lived in one of the truly great investing periods of all times, there have been major declines to be sure but the stock losses were met with new all time highs in every case in a very intermediate investing term with steadily falling interest rates and declining inflation along the way to always cushion a portfolio that was invested in stocks/bonds. If you do not have retirement money it is pretty much indicative as having been unable to save as virtually any investment style with even a very moderate risk profile has seen positive returns to inflation.

With good fortune for us all this will continue for another 37 years, for if there is another downturn, I don’t know if the FED will have a free hand to reach down and purchase 8 trillion of bonds to save us as they did in 2009. If Atlas shrugs it will be a new world and it will no longer be the FED’s problem.
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-03-2018, 10:07 AM   #80
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 30,476
Quote:
Originally Posted by vrijheid View Post
Dippity doo da, dippity ay, my oh my, what a wonderful day!
Too much freedom?
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
T-Theory - Secular Bear Market - Market down into June/July? dex FIRE and Money 8 08-26-2010 06:48 PM
Pay down existing mortgage or save up for big down payment? Andre1969 Young Dreamers 13 04-29-2010 10:05 AM
Housing prices down; Stock Market down; Economy slowing; & the benefits dex FIRE and Money 32 03-16-2007 04:46 PM
How do you deal with a down market day like today? dante60093 FIRE and Money 31 07-17-2004 01:17 PM
Buy House Now w/Low Down or Save Bigger Down? BigMoneyJim Young Dreamers 11 07-14-2004 04:23 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:41 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.