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Old 02-04-2018, 12:34 PM   #121
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You support option 2, which is what I just did.
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Old 02-04-2018, 12:44 PM   #122
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From Barron’s, February 5, 2018 (posted each week in Morningstar's discussion forum for market insights):

Pg M3, Trader: Worst week in 2 years. Bond yields rose. There is more downside: From the new highs in the previous week, SP500 drop to 50-dMA would be -5%, and that to 200-dMA -12%. But the market should recover as the economy is in decent shape and is set to improve.
Pg 14: Bullish strategists [Yardini/Yardini, Praveen/PGIM (Prudential), Auth/Federated] are unfazed by last week’s decline and maintain 3,100-3,150 targets for SP500 in 2018 citing good earnings and the impact of Tax Act.
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Old 02-04-2018, 01:23 PM   #123
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The market's fate on Monday and beyond will be determined by the outcome of The Big Game today. I just don't know which team winning will be good for the market.
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Old 02-04-2018, 01:54 PM   #124
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The market's fate on Monday and beyond will be determined by the outcome of The Big Game today. I just don't know which team winning will be good for the market.
I think the commercials will also have an influence on Monday's market.
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Old 02-04-2018, 02:04 PM   #125
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_indicator
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Old 02-04-2018, 02:30 PM   #126
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I'm looking for some incremental buying opportunities. Hope this continues next week and heads towards a correction.
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Old 02-04-2018, 02:41 PM   #127
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I think a 2% growth rate is baked in. We are now headed for 3.5% growth, even as much as a 5.4% growth as indicated by the first quarter numbers.

If the economy grows at 4% for an extended period of years, we have a lot more upside in this market. We are over-extended a bit now, but with a sustained 4%+ growth rate you better fasten your seat belt.
Indeed, the GDP model by the Fed now forecasts a growth of 5.4% (annual rate) in the 2018Q1. See: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/0...ince-2003.html.

Counteracting that good news is the sober fact that their model has been way wrong before. In early 2012, the model called for better than 5.5% growth. The actual number came in at 2.75%.

In any event, I do not see a sustained 4% growth in the US. That would be close to a miracle. It would mean growth of the 1982-2000 period that enjoyed the peace dividend effect when the Cold War ended, and the advent of the computer and the Internet. And even so, one cannot expect the same stock gain, as that earlier period included the effect of P/E expansion. That can happen only once.
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Old 02-04-2018, 03:14 PM   #128
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Forgot to mention, whether the market is going to go gang-buster or just deliver ho-hum performance (as Bogle and others have said) is not going to change the way I invest that much. The market is the only thing there is.

But having a subdued outlook affects my expectation, plus it influences my short-term trading tactics.
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Old 02-05-2018, 12:20 PM   #129
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Looks like the slide is continuing today. Down 300 at start, then almost even, now as I type, down about 400. But who's looking? .
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Old 02-05-2018, 12:33 PM   #130
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Looks like the slide is continuing today. Down 300 at start, then almost even, now as I type, down about 400. But who's looking? .
By 9 minutes later, it was down 467, and back to 417 four minutes after that. Good grief, such volatility!!!

Boys and girls (and I am speaking to the younger, newer investors here), the past few days have been a time to remember,for investors. Many of us remember 2008-2009. But if you don't, the fall of 2008 felt sort of like this to me. Hopefully this is not the crash we have all been expecting, but it sure feels like it.
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Old 02-05-2018, 12:35 PM   #131
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Looks like the slide is continuing today. Down 300 at start, then almost even, now as I type, down about 400. But who's looking? .
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Hopefully this is not the crash we have all been expecting, but it sure feels like it.
When the DOW is as high as it's been I don't watch the numbers, I watch the percentages. And so far this slide isn't really that steep. Still have a ways to go even for a 10% correction.
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Old 02-05-2018, 12:42 PM   #132
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Not worried a bit, the sooth sayers are telling us the market fundamentals are sound, dilly, dilly !

Also the check is in the mail. Dilly, Dilly !
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Old 02-05-2018, 12:44 PM   #133
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When the DOW is as high as it's been I don't watch the numbers, I watch the percentages. And so far this slide isn't really that steep. Still have a ways to go even for a 10% correction.
Go and look at historical data for the Dow in October-November of 2008. You're right, in that we had a 30% correction in the Dow from the highest to the lowest recorded during that time, but it did take a while.
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Old 02-05-2018, 12:47 PM   #134
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Not worried a bit, the sooth sayers are telling us the market fundamentals are sound, dilly, dilly !

Also the check is in the mail. Dilly, Dilly !
Dilly, Dilly!

Last month I spent less than the total of my SS and mini-pension deposits. And, I have plenty of cash too, so I'm not especially worried but might not feel this way if my circumstances were otherwise or if I had not already been through 2008-2009. I could be wrong (often am), but I don't recall having a week with this much volatility since that time.
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Old 02-05-2018, 12:53 PM   #135
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I'll put my 5$ on Bitcoin to show in the 7th.

Outside of that, it looks like I am going to dollar cost avg. in some monies that were sitting in a stable value fund.

I
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Old 02-05-2018, 01:00 PM   #136
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Signed up for some capital improvements on the rentals that are due. Will likely be over $30k. The rental income pays for those, so the behavior of the paper asset markets is irrelevant.
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Old 02-05-2018, 01:02 PM   #137
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I'll put my 5$ on Bitcoin to show in the 7th.

Outside of that, it looks like I am going to dollar cost avg. in some monies that were sitting in a stable value fund.

I
I'm just going to do nothing but post about it. As Looking4Ward said, it may not turn out to be that bad. I might be over-reacting. Trying not to be Chicken Little about this.

And, I am still planning on buying that SUV at some point this year. Just not sure when or what SUV, yet. I am encouraged by reading that Moemg likes her Rav4 so much, so I'm looking into that one again as well as two or three other models.
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Old 02-05-2018, 01:04 PM   #138
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Dilly, Dilly!

Last month I spent less than the total of my SS and mini-pension deposits. And, I have plenty of cash too, so I'm not especially worried but might not feel this way if my circumstances were otherwise or if I had not already been through 2008-2009. I could be wrong (often am), but I don't recall having a week with this much volatility since that time.
I engaged in a little profit taking at the end of last year to pad my cash reserves, so that I wouldn't have to sell if I suddenly needed dough, and/or to take advantage of buying opportunities.

Of course, VTSAX as of Friday still higher even after last week than it was when I sold on Dec. 1, so today it might fall to the same level.
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Old 02-05-2018, 01:07 PM   #139
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Go and look at historical data for the Dow in October-November of 2008. You're right, in that we had a 30% correction in the Dow from the highest to the lowest recorded during that time, but it did take a while.
True, but there was an underlying fundamental beginning to explode at that time (derivatives). I don't see anything like that at the current time.

I think what we are seeing are the shorts making their money.
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Old 02-05-2018, 01:20 PM   #140
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Will be interesting to see what happens between 2:30 and 3:30 or thereabouts. is that not when large institutional investors weigh in typically? be it either large buying or selling, or i suppose most typically a lot of churning of both
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