Down Day in the Market !

[eytonxav]

I'm looking for some incremental buying opportunities. Hope this continues next week and heads towards a correction.

 

[NW-Bound]

I think a 2% growth rate is baked in. We are now headed for 3.5% growth, even as much as a 5.4% growth as indicated by the first quarter numbers.

If the economy grows at 4% for an extended period of years, we have a lot more upside in this market. We are over-extended a bit now, but with a sustained 4%+ growth rate you better fasten your seat belt.

Indeed, the GDP model by the Fed now forecasts a growth of 5.4% (annual rate) in the 2018Q1. See: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/...in-first-quarter-2018-highest-since-2003.html.

Counteracting that good news is the sober fact that their model has been way wrong before. In early 2012, the model called for better than 5.5% growth. The actual number came in at 2.75%.

In any event, I do not see a sustained 4% growth in the US. That would be close to a miracle. It would mean growth of the 1982-2000 period that enjoyed the peace dividend effect when the Cold War ended, and the advent of the computer and the Internet. And even so, one cannot expect the same stock gain, as that earlier period included the effect of P/E expansion. That can happen only once.

 

[NW-Bound]

Forgot to mention, whether the market is going to go gang-buster or just deliver ho-hum performance (as Bogle and others have said) is not going to change the way I invest that much. The market is the only thing there is.

But having a subdued outlook affects my expectation, plus it influences my short-term trading tactics.

 

[easysurfer]

Looks like the slide is continuing today. Down 300 at start, then almost even, now as I type, down about 400. But who's looking? .

 

[W2R]

Looks like the slide is continuing today. Down 300 at start, then almost even, now as I type, down about 400. But who's looking? .

By 9 minutes later, it was down 467, and back to 417 four minutes after that. Good grief, such volatility!!!

Boys and girls (and I am speaking to the younger, newer investors here), the past few days have been a time to remember,for investors. Many of us remember 2008-2009. But if you don't, the fall of 2008 felt sort of like this to me. Hopefully this is not the crash we have all been expecting, but it sure feels like it.

 

[Looking4Ward]

Looks like the slide is continuing today. Down 300 at start, then almost even, now as I type, down about 400. But who's looking? .

Hopefully this is not the crash we have all been expecting, but it sure feels like it.

When the DOW is as high as it's been I don't watch the numbers, I watch the percentages. And so far this slide isn't really that steep. Still have a ways to go even for a 10% correction.

 

[frayne]

Not worried a bit, the sooth sayers are telling us the market fundamentals are sound, dilly, dilly !

Also the check is in the mail. Dilly, Dilly !

 

[W2R]

When the DOW is as high as it's been I don't watch the numbers, I watch the percentages. And so far this slide isn't really that steep. Still have a ways to go even for a 10% correction.

Go and look at historical data for the Dow in October-November of 2008. You're right, in that we had a 30% correction in the Dow from the highest to the lowest recorded during that time, but it did take a while.

 

[W2R]

Not worried a bit, the sooth sayers are telling us the market fundamentals are sound, dilly, dilly !

Also the check is in the mail. Dilly, Dilly !

Dilly, Dilly!

Last month I spent less than the total of my SS and mini-pension deposits. And, I have plenty of cash too, so I'm not especially worried but might not feel this way if my circumstances were otherwise or if I had not already been through 2008-2009. I could be wrong (often am), but I don't recall having a week with this much volatility since that time.

 

[IMATERP]

I'll put my 5$ on Bitcoin to show in the 7th.

Outside of that, it looks like I am going to dollar cost avg. in some monies that were sitting in a stable value fund.

I

 

[Another Reader]

Signed up for some capital improvements on the rentals that are due. Will likely be over $30k. The rental income pays for those, so the behavior of the paper asset markets is irrelevant.

 

[W2R]

I'll put my 5$ on Bitcoin to show in the 7th.

Outside of that, it looks like I am going to dollar cost avg. in some monies that were sitting in a stable value fund.

I

I'm just going to do nothing but post about it. As Looking4Ward said, it may not turn out to be that bad. I might be over-reacting. Trying not to be Chicken Little about this.

And, I am still planning on buying that SUV at some point this year. Just not sure when or what SUV, yet. I am encouraged by reading that Moemg likes her Rav4 so much, so I'm looking into that one again as well as two or three other models.

 

[googily]

Dilly, Dilly!

Last month I spent less than the total of my SS and mini-pension deposits. And, I have plenty of cash too, so I'm not especially worried but might not feel this way if my circumstances were otherwise or if I had not already been through 2008-2009. I could be wrong (often am), but I don't recall having a week with this much volatility since that time.

I engaged in a little profit taking at the end of last year to pad my cash reserves, so that I wouldn't have to sell if I suddenly needed dough, and/or to take advantage of buying opportunities.

Of course, VTSAX as of Friday still higher even after last week than it was when I sold on Dec. 1, so today it might fall to the same level.

 

[Looking4Ward]

Go and look at historical data for the Dow in October-November of 2008. You're right, in that we had a 30% correction in the Dow from the highest to the lowest recorded during that time, but it did take a while.

True, but there was an underlying fundamental beginning to explode at that time (derivatives). I don't see anything like that at the current time.

I think what we are seeing are the shorts making their money.

 

[mamadogmamacat]

Will be interesting to see what happens between 2:30 and 3:30 or thereabouts. is that not when large institutional investors weigh in typically? be it either large buying or selling, or i suppose most typically a lot of churning of both

 

[W2R]

Will be interesting to see what happens between 2:30 and 3:30 or thereabouts. is that not when large institutional investors weigh in typically? be it either large buying or selling, or i suppose most typically a lot of churning of both

Good point! Maybe the Dow will even end up higher than Friday; who knows? Not me, that's for sure.

As of this moment, the Dow is down 542 points. WOW!

 

[Chuckanut]

Not worried a bit, the sooth sayers are telling us the market fundamentals are sound, dilly, dilly !

Also the check is in the mail. Dilly, Dilly !

'
Dilly Dilly?

Good Grief! Does that indicate this market correction means I can only afford Bud Light instead of the craft beer I now drink? Now that would be a big cut in my quality of life.

 

[W2R]

I'm just going to do nothing but post about it. As Looking4Ward said, it may not turn out to be that bad. I might be over-reacting. Trying not to be Chicken Little about this.

I just looked.

Cluck, cluck....

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Been nibbling today on the down trodden. A little XLE and QCOM.

Why these two? Who knows.

 

[flintnational]

How can you all remain calm. Its down more than 10% today alone and off 60% from its all time high.

Why didn't someone warn me about bitcoin!

 

[NW-Bound]

DJIA down 800 now. It has to drop 2662 points from its recent high in order to be a correction, and has gone only 1900 points. Needs another day like today.

PS. Now, down 960 points. Whoo hoo! Are we having fun yet? And people thought that the Wh*** proclamation lost its power. I said its effect would be delayed, and that made it even more devilish to lure people into complacency.

 

[Looking4Ward]

YTD market gains now gone, VIX is at 28, and Dow is down over 1,000 points for the day.

Shorts are cashing in their gains.

 

[Pilot2013]

Down 1000.... Nothing to do now but hold on.

 

[W2R]

How can you all remain calm. Its down more than 10% today alone and off 60% from its all time high.

Why didn't someone warn me about bitcoin!

The Dow is down 1080 as of this moment!!! Wow.

I can remain calm because I've been through this before, and came out of it fine. Also, some of us become paralyzed with fear and actually just cannot sell. This is a GOOD thing at times when the market is dropping like this.

I never liked bitcoin because of another forum I frequent, where they push it a lot (which I hate).

 

[imoldernu]

Like watching a horror movie... As of now, DJ headed down towards $1600...
Technical correction now official if it holds.
VIX @45

(edit) VIX was @35... bad reporting from FoxNews...