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Dr. Doom - The worst is yet to come
10-26-2008, 06:11 PM
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#1
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 534
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Dr. Doom - The worst is yet to come
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10-26-2008, 07:04 PM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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so
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10-26-2008, 07:11 PM
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#3
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Newport Beach
Posts: 122
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Has this guy ever said "things are going to get better"??
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10-26-2008, 07:49 PM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,072
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I wish somebody would shoot the SOB. 
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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10-26-2008, 07:53 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,153
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I think he turns into a vampire at night - better use a silver bullet.
Audrey
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10-26-2008, 07:57 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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 Quote:
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He believes governments will have to come up with an even bigger international rescue, and that the US is facing “multi-year economic stagnation”.
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What might that be?
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
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10-26-2008, 09:49 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Collin County, TX
Posts: 9,296
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I wanna hear from Dr. Feelgood.
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
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10-26-2008, 09:58 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,072
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bbbamI
I wanna hear from Dr. Feelgood.
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You rang?
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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10-26-2008, 10:06 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Collin County, TX
Posts: 9,296
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Hot dawg! The doctor is in.....yeah baby!!!!!! 
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
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10-27-2008, 07:45 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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Kinda makes you feel sorry for all those wannabe musicians who spent all that time learning to play their instruments, when all they needed was a schtick...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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10-27-2008, 08:21 AM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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does roubini ever give out any specifics with his predictions or is it just doom and gloom?
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10-27-2008, 11:28 AM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,224
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
does roubini ever give out any specifics with his predictions or is it just doom and gloom?
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No. And how does he invest? NYU Stern
Buy and hold diversified index funds...
DD
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10-27-2008, 07:20 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,072
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DblDoc
No. And how does he invest? NYU Stern
Buy and hold diversified index funds...
DD |
Amazing he is 100% stocks, considering how pessimistic he has been. I'd still like to have him shot. 
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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10-27-2008, 07:28 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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I wish he'd start being wrong.
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10-27-2008, 07:34 PM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
does roubini ever give out any specifics with his predictions or is it just doom and gloom?
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Plenty. One of the latest is that the S&P 500 will bottom at around 600. He figures earnings will drop to about $60 and the market will trade at a 10x multiple.
I can actually live with that, if that's the down side. That means stocks today are trading at 14x trough earnings.
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10-27-2008, 07:36 PM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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no one cares about 2008 earnings anymore since everyone knows it's a total lows. the market is trying to find pricing at 2009 - 2010 earnings and we are almost at the end of the psycho selling where everyone is selling to meet margin calls or just because they think the world is ending.
back in the 1970's i'm pretty sure the PE bottomed long after the 1974 low
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10-27-2008, 07:44 PM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,153
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Historically, are trough multiples usually applied to trough earnings?
Audrey
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10-27-2008, 07:54 PM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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think so, go to www.safehaven.com and you'll have to do some searching, but in the last 18 months i read an article there about how we go through PE contractions every few decades and the last one the PE bottomed in the late 1970's or in the 1980 - 1982 bear market. can't remember which.
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10-27-2008, 08:02 PM
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#19
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Newport Beach
Posts: 122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by . . . Yrs to Go
Plenty. One of the latest is that the S&P 500 will bottom at around 600. He figures earnings will drop to about $60 and the market will trade at a 10x multiple.
I can actually live with that, if that's the down side. That means stocks today are trading at 14x trough earnings.
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I've heard other ecomonists (like Rosenberg from Merrill Lynch) predict a 10 PE because other bear markets have contracted to that level, but I don't see why such a low multiple would make sense in an environment where the 10 yr treasury yields < 4%.
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10-27-2008, 08:07 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newporttony
I've heard other ecomonists (like Rosenberg from Merrill Lynch) predict a 10 PE because other bear markets have contracted to that level, but I don't see why such a low multiple would make sense in an environment where the 10 yr treasury yields < 4%.
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Deflation?
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