Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 10-10-2020, 04:02 PM   #21
Full time employment: Posting here.
MrsHaloFIRE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 751
I see groceries healthcare and housing going up in my area. What's this deflation talk? My basket of goods is increasing in expense.
MrsHaloFIRE is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 10-10-2020, 04:38 PM   #22
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Kerrville,Tx
Posts: 3,322
Here is a plot of the us consumer price index as well as the total change from 1913
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consum...ndex_Graph.svg
All be it that the choice of a linear scale for average consumer price index may not be the best, as perhaps a log scale of something that goes as an exponential always runs in slope.
meierlde is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2020, 04:46 PM   #23
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Kerrville,Tx
Posts: 3,322
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koolau View Post
Heh, heh, I guess that news about the returning meat packers hasn't made it here yet.

the wall street journal claims that the shortage of meat is over and prices are falling "after spring time shortages supermarkets are selling meat for lower prices, as supplies rebound and exports decline". This chart from the bls shows hamburger prices peaking in July and declining in aug. Note that the year over year cpi is up 1.3% Here is a link to the bls report https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
meierlde is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2020, 04:48 PM   #24
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 5,650
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrsHaloFIRE View Post
I see groceries healthcare and housing going up in my area. What's this deflation talk? My basket of goods is increasing in expense.
Stick with me while I suggest a theory 'splainin' why the gummint numbers never match up with my (our??) inflation reality: The gummint "says" we're going to buy "this much" gas, "this much" food, this much movie tickets, "this much" health care, "this much" housing, etc. etc. Here is where I think "they" are wrong: If food and health care go up in price - we still buy 'em, 'cause we really need 'em. If movie tickets, travel, entertainment in general, shoes, etc. etc. go up, we DON'T buy 'em. Folks have only so much money.

So every thing we don't buy may be cheap (and that can be self fulfilling as folks don't buy 'em) but everything we actually need may be expensive (partly because EVERYONE needs 'em.) The gummint doesn't actually notice what we DO buy and what we QUIT buying within a year. So the gummit's estimates look "good" because of their assumptions. "OUR" numbers look "bad" cause we don't follow the assumptions when we have a choice. So there you have it. Ko'olau's theory of gummint vs real inflation. Don't forget, YMMV.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2020, 07:44 PM   #25
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
SecondCor521's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 5,341
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koolau View Post
Stick with me while I suggest a theory 'splainin' why the gummint numbers never match up with my (our??) inflation reality: The gummint "says" we're going to buy "this much" gas, "this much" food, this much movie tickets, "this much" health care, "this much" housing, etc. etc. Here is where I think "they" are wrong: If food and health care go up in price - we still buy 'em, 'cause we really need 'em. If movie tickets, travel, entertainment in general, shoes, etc. etc. go up, we DON'T buy 'em. Folks have only so much money.

So every thing we don't buy may be cheap (and that can be self fulfilling as folks don't buy 'em) but everything we actually need may be expensive (partly because EVERYONE needs 'em.) The gummint doesn't actually notice what we DO buy and what we QUIT buying within a year. So the gummit's estimates look "good" because of their assumptions. "OUR" numbers look "bad" cause we don't follow the assumptions when we have a choice. So there you have it. Ko'olau's theory of gummint vs real inflation. Don't forget, YMMV.
Except that's not how the CPI is calculated. It's calculated on what people (on average in aggregate) actually buy, not on what the gummint things we buy "this much" of.

See:

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-an...htm#Question_2

and

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/a...ces-differ.htm

It is true that people will substitute goods and that goods have varying demand curves, but that's supposed to be accounted for in the CPI.
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
SecondCor521 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2020, 08:26 PM   #26
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 580
Anyone else doubting the “wisdom” of Keynesian economics? Central banks were installed, at least partly, to supposedly moderate the business cycle by loosening in bad times and tightening in good times. At least in the past 25 years I’ve seen lots of loosening, but barely any tightening and the ups and downs of the business cycle seem as alive as ever. So to my way of thinking, this leaves asset prices far above their natural equilibrium so of course there’s deflationary pressure. I understand how hazardous deflation can be, but had Greenspan allowed a natural reset (as opposed to inflating the housing bubble) in the early 2000’s I don’t think we’d have huge societal issues now like massive wealth inequality. I think we would have had a very slow recovery but eventually would have found a natural level for asset prices. But the game continues with central bankers simply using more and more credit creation to fight the ill effects of the last round of credit creation. So the question becomes: At what point do we take our economic medicine for sins of the past, stop money printing, rate lowering and otherwise manipulating the natural desires of market participants, and allow a painful and slow reset so that future generations don’t have to deal with the mess we’ve made?
__________________
Saved 8 figures by my mid-40's as a professional bubble-spotter. Beware...the Fed creates bubble after bubble after bubble.
RenoJay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2020, 08:55 PM   #27
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Ventura County
Posts: 1,199
Quote:
Originally Posted by RenoJay View Post
Anyone else doubting the “wisdom” of Keynesian economics?

Perhaps the problem isn't with Keynesian economics but with the "wisdom" of allowing politics rather than just economic data to influence monetary policy.
stepford is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2020, 08:56 PM   #28
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 29,179
Quote:
Originally Posted by RenoJay View Post
Anyone else doubting the “wisdom” of Keynesian economics? Central banks were installed, at least partly, to supposedly moderate the business cycle by loosening in bad times and tightening in good times. At least in the past 25 years I’ve seen lots of loosening, but barely any tightening and the ups and downs of the business cycle seem as alive as ever. So to my way of thinking, this leaves asset prices far above their natural equilibrium so of course there’s deflationary pressure.
Yep!

Even though my investments are way up there, asset inflation caused by endless QE bugs me because it seems inevitably unstable.

So I keep taking my full annual withdrawal and rebalancing, because you never know when we’re going to hit a big air pocket.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 12:05 AM   #29
Recycles dryer sheets
bolt's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 363

I've always recalled one thought.

"A country is only as valuable as its currency".
I concur wholeheartedly.
Remember the 1851 civil war single gold dollars on EBay over 100.00.

STRANGE ; a $1.00 gold piece(1850s) attracts (its smaller than a dime 1.6gm of 9.99 24k GLD over $ 100+ on EBay!
Good luck & Best wishes....
__________________
It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.
bolt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 03:09 AM   #30
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Amethyst's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 9,964
I have seen the greatest inflation in the cost of services. This cost is now being influenced by all the COVID-19 preparations, cleaning, scarcity of spare parts, etc. so I'm not sure how much is genuine "inflation," and how much is simply that it costs businesses more to run because of COVID.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Koolau View Post
No idea if inflation will be low or rage a la 70's/80s. I just know I no longer trust the inflation numbers that are published. I see what I see and inflation is much higher (here) than the numbers would suggest. It's been that way for several years. YMMV
__________________
If you understood everything I say, you'd be me ~ Miles Davis
'There is only one success – to be able to spend your life in your own way.’ Christopher Morley.
It involved a mannequin hand, and an electric shaver taped to a golf club! - "The Other Guys"
Amethyst is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 07:15 AM   #31
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Castro Valley
Posts: 695
Even though the CPI may be low, my Medical Insurance Premium has increased by 30% this year and 175% over the last four years. Medical Insurance represents over 20% of my total cost for Essentials.

Official CPI rates have little to do with my actual inflation rate.
jkern is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 07:24 AM   #32
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Car-Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 5,882
From my POV, with the exception of gasoline, just about everything has gone up... Insurance, cars, food, etc.... I just switched insurance companies after being with them for more than 25 years because the bill went up so much this year. The DW and I went to McDonalds the other day and had a bit of a laugh when the bill was just over $20.
__________________
Power is often given but respect must always be earned
Car-Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 07:35 AM   #33
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Tadpole's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,314
Maybe all you need to do to produce the inflation of the 70s is to delink interest rates and true inflation. If the diesel price goes down but the merchandize in the haul doesn't, lower diesel price has only aided the shareholders of the shippers, not the buyers of the haul.
Tadpole is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 08:18 AM   #34
Moderator
sengsational's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 8,131
Look on the bright side of inflation....that pallet of 100's the war lord has or drug lord has is getting less valuable, whereas legit money can be moved to things that keep up better.

My deflation market segment is eBay stuff from the far east. So much cool stuff for so cheap! I got an Arduino that runs an amazingly huge TV tuning free over the air signals with multiple digital tuners, scheduled to record my choices....a low, one-time cost, and now I have on-demand movie theater like experience whenever I want. Free.
sengsational is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 08:24 AM   #35
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 5,650
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amethyst View Post
I have seen the greatest inflation in the cost of services. This cost is now being influenced by all the COVID-19 preparations, cleaning, scarcity of spare parts, etc. so I'm not sure how much is genuine "inflation," and how much is simply that it costs businesses more to run because of COVID.
Yep, I noticed at local restaurant that the menu items have been curtailed and the prices have increased (guessing 20%). Sad, really. I understand it, but it's counter productive if things don't improve fairly soon. Paying more to get less and risk Covid is not a good business model. YMMV
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 09:33 AM   #36
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Spanky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,405
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koolau View Post
Yep, I noticed at local restaurant that the menu items have been curtailed and the prices have increased (guessing 20%). Sad, really. I understand it, but it's counter productive if things don't improve fairly soon. Paying more to get less and risk Covid is not a good business model. YMMV
We do mostly takeout food and have not noticed any significant increases - keeping our fingers crossed.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
Spanky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 09:49 AM   #37
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 447
I do not see signs of deflation while bit coins / Gold prices indicate the fear of inflation.
VFK57 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 10:22 AM   #38
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 610
Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888 View Post
This is clearly not an issue of inflation, but an issue of Taxation.

I have to disagree. The 7% increase in my homeowner's insurance has nothing to do with taxation. And when you are figuring your drawdown using the 4% rule, you MUST include taxes. You can't separate that out as if it doesn't exist as a real expense. That's ridiculous. Property taxes are a real expense and must be calculated in. That's part of my personal inflation that is figured as part of the 4% rule. The paid off house does NOT affect my drawdown related to the 4% rule at all and would work against me if I was to sell because in most areas that I would consider moving to, home values have actually gone up. So it's a negative all the way around which would require me to increase my spending.

I wasn't thinking about it earlier, but someone else mentioned health care insurance premiums. My insurance premiums through work went up 60% in July, along with higher deductibles and coinsurance! Grocery bills are up, electric bill is up. I don't drive much, so gas prices don't affect me much, but the gubment decided to raise taxes on that to offset some of the price drop along with increasing many other fees like car registrations by 50%.

As many experts are predicting, inflation is expected to soar, and is already higher than the government figures in terms of real inflation.
GenXguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 11:44 AM   #39
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 29,194
I dunno about inflation because we don't have much that we can compare apples-to-apples... but I do know that our spending is way below a year ago.

For those that I can compare apples-to-apples.... electric rate per KW is 8.8% higher. Insurance (home, auto, umbrella, et al) is the same as last year. Property tax rate is actually a hair lower than 2019, but property tax is higher due to town-wide reappraisal hitting lakefront property more than total.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56...target 65/35/0 AA TBD
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 01:25 PM   #40
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 447
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
I dunno about inflation because we don't have much that we can compare apples-to-apples... but I do know that our spending is way below a year ago.

For those that I can compare apples-to-apples.... electric rate per KW is 8.8% higher. Insurance (home, auto, umbrella, et al) is the same as last year. Property tax rate is actually a hair lower than 2019, but property tax is higher due to town-wide reappraisal hitting lakefront property more than total.
Our property Taxes went up, despite the rental market had slowed down. It is on the top of "special assessments" what every year adds new bonds, "approved by majority" voters who hardly pay any Taxes. Gas with $40 p barrel is $3.50. Once again, the best indicator of inflation or rather expectation of high inflation are "alternative money": Bitcoins and Gold. They clearly indicate that even if we do not see high inflation, many investors and Central Banks are designing cryptocurrency and purchasing Gold in expectation of high inflation at some point IMO.
VFK57 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Midlife 'Wealth Shock' May Lead to Death, Study Suggests flintnational Health and Early Retirement 31 04-06-2018 02:42 PM
Blood test : Calcium low, Vitamin D Low, Sodium low Lakewood90712 Health and Early Retirement 16 05-15-2016 05:07 PM
John Bogle Suggests International Investing will Lag MasterBlaster FIRE and Money 27 01-24-2014 07:33 PM
Big Mac Index Suggests that Dollar is Undervalued with Europe/Overvalued with Asia MasterBlaster FIRE and Money 2 07-27-2010 07:08 PM
? Need suggests for opportunities that are interesting/modivating during retirement. Lookin2Enjoy FIRE and Money 10 10-05-2008 07:50 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:47 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.