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Old 09-18-2021, 02:07 PM   #41
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Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity (Fidelity.com, LinkedIn, Twitter) has a good insight he recycles now and then - most of the time the market is in a "correction" of one type or another.

The market goes down, then up, then down, then up again. Over the medium and long term, the market goes up. Who cares if it drops 5%?
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Old 09-18-2021, 02:18 PM   #42
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Maybe you should try buying at all time highs, rather than waiting for the dip;-) Here's a quick study of a strategy that buys/holds at all time highs and otherwise moves to bonds.

https://mebfaber.com/2019/11/04/is-b...h-a-good-idea/

"I don’t think the takeaway is really that this is a system anyone would want to implement, but rather, an acknowledgement that all-time highs are nothing to be afraid of"
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Old 09-18-2021, 07:36 PM   #43
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Don’t fight the Fed….we’ll get a correction when they announce tapering.
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Old 09-18-2021, 08:03 PM   #44
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Don’t fight the Fed….we’ll get a correction when they announce tapering.
Exactly, and also just after all the member bank FED chairs announce they have sold their personal equities.
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Old 09-19-2021, 01:54 PM   #45
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Exactly, and also just after all the member bank FED chairs announce they have sold their personal equities.
We have the best government money can buy.
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Old 09-19-2021, 08:58 PM   #46
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Shouldn’t we all love all time highs? Isn’t that why we invest?
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Old 09-20-2021, 05:56 AM   #47
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Market open today will be bumpy. Get your buy orders ready.
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Old 09-20-2021, 06:25 AM   #48
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Another couple of days and the elusive 5% drop should be here.
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Old 09-20-2021, 06:48 AM   #49
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Cash is to spend, bonds are a drag.

And CD's...why bother?
We were able to pay off our mortgage and retire early because in the mid 90's I socked away cash in CD's that were paying ~8%.

Maybe your CD theory holds today, but if the return is ~4% - 5% it is good safe predictable money. MMDV
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Old 09-20-2021, 07:24 AM   #50
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Another couple of days and the elusive 5% drop should be here.
Looking like it.
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Old 09-20-2021, 07:28 AM   #51
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Looks like we will be off pretty sharply here at the open.
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Old 09-20-2021, 08:22 AM   #52
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There is a sale going on - international VXUS. Call it a price roll back of 2.5%.
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Old 09-20-2021, 08:24 AM   #53
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Looks like we will be off pretty sharply here at the open.

Down 1.5-2% across the various market indexes about 1 hour in. Not doing anything myself, just watching with a little interest. Mainly my engineering background and wanting to figure out the reasons behind the market moves, which goes for both directions. But today looks like a down day for sure.
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Old 09-20-2021, 08:35 AM   #54
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Agreed - nice 2% drop in the Nasdaq to jump in on some broad tech index or somethin'. What are you guys buying?
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Old 09-20-2021, 08:48 AM   #55
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My stock AA is still too high at 78%. I am not buying anything, until the drop is deeper and I cannot resist. Something like more than 10% drop.
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Old 09-20-2021, 08:50 AM   #56
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Looking like it.
Perhaps need a little shakeout to the tune of 5 to 10%.
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Old 09-20-2021, 09:01 AM   #57
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... The market goes down, then up, then down, then up again. Over the medium and long term, the market goes up. Who cares if it drops 5%?
Exactly. There has never been a drop that has not been followed by a recovery.

Here is a chart I show the students in my Adult-Ed investment class:


To be fair, the semilog scale somewhat masks the effects of drops, but even at a drop, we are far ahead of where we'd be if we held only bonds.

Here is another chart, a hypothetical I show when we talk about market action for long-term investors:


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Old 09-20-2021, 09:23 AM   #58
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Agreed - nice 2% drop in the Nasdaq to jump in on some broad tech index or somethin'. What are you guys buying?
Selling puts.
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Old 09-20-2021, 10:42 AM   #59
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Down 1.5-2% across the various market indexes about 1 hour in. Not doing anything myself, just watching with a little interest. Mainly my engineering background and wanting to figure out the reasons behind the market moves, which goes for both directions. But today looks like a down day for sure.
I think it is the contagion from the collapse of Chinese real estate developer Evergrande. There was a lot of media coverage on this last week. It's the Chinese version of the US subprime fiasco in 2007-2009, but it's nothing of the same magnitude.

What happens is that Evergrande sold a lot of condos to the Chinese populace, who buy real estate as an investment, in contrast with buying stocks. I understand that the Chinese can only buy their domestic stocks, and are not allowed to buy foreign stocks. Lots of money, and no place to put it other than to housing. A sure formula for a real estate bubble.

Evergrande is facing default on the interest due. I don't think foreign investors hold much of its bonds, so this panic is an overreaction. Perhaps I am wrong.

Still, the market bull run has been overextended, and when someone says "Boo", people jump.
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Old 09-20-2021, 10:55 AM   #60
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I didn't get around to rebalancing as I told myself to do the last 3 weeks and now it looks like it took care of itself.
Not buying as im still about above my AA in stocks.
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