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09-18-2021, 02:07 PM
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#41
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gone traveling
Join Date: Aug 2020
Posts: 682
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Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity (Fidelity.com, LinkedIn, Twitter) has a good insight he recycles now and then - most of the time the market is in a "correction" of one type or another.
The market goes down, then up, then down, then up again. Over the medium and long term, the market goes up. Who cares if it drops 5%?
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09-18-2021, 02:18 PM
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#42
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 66
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Maybe you should try buying at all time highs, rather than waiting for the dip;-) Here's a quick study of a strategy that buys/holds at all time highs and otherwise moves to bonds.
https://mebfaber.com/2019/11/04/is-b...h-a-good-idea/
"I don’t think the takeaway is really that this is a system anyone would want to implement, but rather, an acknowledgement that all-time highs are nothing to be afraid of"
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09-18-2021, 07:36 PM
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#43
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,691
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Don’t fight the Fed….we’ll get a correction when they announce tapering.
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09-18-2021, 08:03 PM
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#44
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,730
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by teejayevans
Don’t fight the Fed….we’ll get a correction when they announce tapering.
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Exactly, and also just after all the member bank FED chairs announce they have sold their personal equities.
__________________
*********Go Yankees!*********
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09-19-2021, 01:54 PM
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#45
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,691
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aja8888
Exactly, and also just after all the member bank FED chairs announce they have sold their personal equities.
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We have the best government money can buy. 
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09-19-2021, 08:58 PM
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#46
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Twin Cities
Posts: 3,941
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Shouldn’t we all love all time highs? Isn’t that why we invest?
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09-20-2021, 05:56 AM
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#47
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gone traveling
Join Date: Aug 2020
Posts: 682
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Market open today will be bumpy. Get your buy orders ready.
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09-20-2021, 06:25 AM
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#48
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,298
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Another couple of days and the elusive 5% drop should be here.
__________________
TGIM
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09-20-2021, 06:48 AM
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#49
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,723
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RobbieB
Cash is to spend, bonds are a drag.
And CD's...why bother?
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We were able to pay off our mortgage and retire early because in the mid 90's I socked away cash in CD's that were paying ~8%.
Maybe your CD theory holds today, but if the return is ~4% - 5% it is good safe predictable money. MMDV
__________________
"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
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09-20-2021, 07:24 AM
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#50
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 11,078
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail
Another couple of days and the elusive 5% drop should be here.
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Looking like it.
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09-20-2021, 07:28 AM
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#51
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 7,591
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Looks like we will be off pretty sharply here at the open.
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09-20-2021, 08:22 AM
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#52
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,720
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There is a sale going on - international VXUS. Call it a price roll back of 2.5%.
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09-20-2021, 08:24 AM
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#53
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Cincinnati, OH
Posts: 4,373
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecfo
Looks like we will be off pretty sharply here at the open.
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Down 1.5-2% across the various market indexes about 1 hour in. Not doing anything myself, just watching with a little interest. Mainly my engineering background and wanting to figure out the reasons behind the market moves, which goes for both directions. But today looks like a down day for sure.
__________________
The problem isn't artificial intelligence, it's natural stupidity.
You can't spend yourself to prosperity.
Semi-Retired 7/1/16: working part-time (60%) for now [4/24/17 changed to 80%]
Retired Aug 2, 2017; age 53
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09-20-2021, 08:35 AM
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#54
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2021
Location: Seattle
Posts: 81
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Agreed - nice 2% drop in the Nasdaq to jump in on some broad tech index or somethin'. What are you guys buying? 
__________________
FIRE'd in Nov 2021 at 55
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09-20-2021, 08:48 AM
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#55
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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My stock AA is still too high at 78%. I am not buying anything, until the drop is deeper and I cannot resist. Something like more than 10% drop.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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09-20-2021, 08:50 AM
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#56
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,298
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MRG
Looking like it.
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Perhaps need a little shakeout to the tune of 5 to 10%.
__________________
TGIM
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09-20-2021, 09:01 AM
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#57
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 10,351
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chassis
... The market goes down, then up, then down, then up again. Over the medium and long term, the market goes up. Who cares if it drops 5%?
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Exactly. There has never been a drop that has not been followed by a recovery.
Here is a chart I show the students in my Adult-Ed investment class:
To be fair, the semilog scale somewhat masks the effects of drops, but even at a drop, we are far ahead of where we'd be if we held only bonds.
Here is another chart, a hypothetical I show when we talk about market action for long-term investors:
__________________
Ignoramus et ignorabimus
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09-20-2021, 09:23 AM
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#58
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 11,078
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09-20-2021, 10:42 AM
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#59
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 38Chevy454
Down 1.5-2% across the various market indexes about 1 hour in. Not doing anything myself, just watching with a little interest. Mainly my engineering background and wanting to figure out the reasons behind the market moves, which goes for both directions. But today looks like a down day for sure.
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I think it is the contagion from the collapse of Chinese real estate developer Evergrande. There was a lot of media coverage on this last week. It's the Chinese version of the US subprime fiasco in 2007-2009, but it's nothing of the same magnitude.
What happens is that Evergrande sold a lot of condos to the Chinese populace, who buy real estate as an investment, in contrast with buying stocks. I understand that the Chinese can only buy their domestic stocks, and are not allowed to buy foreign stocks. Lots of money, and no place to put it other than to housing. A sure formula for a real estate bubble.
Evergrande is facing default on the interest due. I don't think foreign investors hold much of its bonds, so this panic is an overreaction. Perhaps I am wrong.
Still, the market bull run has been overextended, and when someone says "Boo", people jump. 
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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09-20-2021, 10:55 AM
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#60
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,502
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I didn't get around to rebalancing as I told myself to do the last 3 weeks and now it looks like it took care of itself.
Not buying as im still about above my AA in stocks.
__________________
“No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
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