Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 09-20-2021, 11:06 AM   #61
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 33,402
Quote:
Originally Posted by MRG View Post
Selling puts.
Too early yet, I think. And I have to count my existing puts first. Stock AA still too high, as I mentioned.


About Evergrande collapse, the news showed Chinese people crowding outside the company offices, wanting their money back. One elderly Chinese woman said she sold both of her condos to buy a nice new one, which may never get built. She threatened to jump off a building. A lot of panicky people.

People were waiting to see if Xi Jinping, the PRC chairman, is going to bail out Evergrande.

Here's one of the several videos one can find on YouTube.

__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 09-20-2021, 11:41 AM   #62
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 33,402
OK, just counted the puts I already sold last week. The liability on them is 3.5% of my portfolio.

I am not going to sell any more puts, unless the market crashes so hard people are crying "Uncle", and banging their head against their pillow, and threatening to jump off their front porch.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2021, 12:53 PM   #63
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Santa Clara County
Posts: 106
Now down 2.6 %.

Starting to get interestingÖ.
Steeler75 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2021, 12:54 PM   #64
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands, TX
Posts: 15,991
Only $300 Billion US in default....heck Xi can cover that with spare change. But he won't bail out the foreign holders. That will be done by the "J Team" and other Central Banks!

Plus, the properties in default (when that happens) will be sold to recoup the losses.
__________________
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth...philosopher Mike Tyson
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2021, 01:17 PM   #65
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 9,820
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steeler75 View Post
Now down 2.6 %.

Starting to get interestingÖ.
Yup, the 5% drop is not elusive anymore. Over 400 days since the last one.
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2021, 02:04 PM   #66
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Stuck in the mud somewhere in the NJ swamp
Posts: 8,380
They clapped at the closing bell. It's all good!
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2021, 02:10 PM   #67
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Car-Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Citizen of Texas
Posts: 7,741
There was a lot of money to be made today.... Great day for a swing trader but it didn't materialize until the last 15 mins.... What a ride...
__________________
I don't know how to act my age since I've never been this old before.
Car-Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2021, 03:05 PM   #68
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Stuck in the mud somewhere in the NJ swamp
Posts: 8,380
In an after the bell show a commentator said, "I don't know exactly what we're looking at here, but..."
And then he went on and on. Lol!
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2021, 03:15 PM   #69
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 136
I have CDs maturing next week. Yay
ER2B is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2021, 03:18 PM   #70
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 33,402
Quote:
Originally Posted by aja8888 View Post
Only $300 Billion US in default....heck Xi can cover that with spare change. But he won't bail out the foreign holders. That will be done by the "J Team" and other Central Banks!

Plus, the properties in default (when that happens) will be sold to recoup the losses.
I heard that only $30B, or 10% of the loan, is owned by foreign investors. And then, there are creditors other than US banks.

But is this just the tip of the iceberg? Evergrande is only the 2nd-ranked Chinese real-estate developer. As Buffett famously said during the US subprime crisis, "only when the tide is out that we know who has been swimming nekkid".

About selling unfinished properties to raise money, China already has a huge stockpile of finished and unfinished properties, actually entire ghost cities, sitting there rotting away for years with no takers. Who wants these recent skeletons of high-rise buildings?

This will crimp China economic growth. They will need less steel, copper, etc... A US steel maker that I hold was pummeled down nearly 10% today. Not that it exports to China, but the steel price gets hammered, and whole industries become collateral damages. Will the Chinese consumers be buying EVs soon? The pain is going to spread.

Aye, aye, aye... Buy, buy, buy?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2021, 03:32 PM   #71
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 33,402
By the way, the interest not getting paid by Evergrande is on an 8.25% bond.

Even banks could not help chasing yield. Heh heh heh...
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2021, 03:52 PM   #72
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
street's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 6,936
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
I heard that only $30B, or 10% of the loan, is owned by foreign investors. And then, there are creditors other than US banks.

But is this just the tip of the iceberg? Evergrande is only the 2nd-ranked Chinese real-estate developer. As Buffett famously said during the US subprime crisis, "only when the tide is out that we know who has been swimming nekkid".

About selling unfinished properties to raise money, China already has a huge stockpile of finished and unfinished properties, actually entire ghost cities, sitting there rotting away for years with no takers. Who wants these recent skeletons of high-rise buildings?

This will crimp China economic growth. They will need less steel, copper, etc... A US steel maker that I hold was pummeled down nearly 10% today. Not that it exports to China, but the steel price gets hammered, and whole industries become collateral damages. Will the Chinese consumers be buying EVs soon? The pain is going to spread.

Aye, aye, aye... Buy, buy, buy?
I been selling scrap steel for 200$ a ton. You telling me those days are ovah?
street is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2021, 04:58 PM   #73
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MuirWannabe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,840
Classic problem with me. Like others, Iím holding a good chunk of cash waiting for a drop to invest it. Then a drop (mild so far) comes, and I sit wondering if itíll go a lot further. So, I wait rather than deploying some of that cash into equities. Tomorrow it will probably rocket back up and Iíve missed my opportunity. Market timing is so easy. So rewarding. So annoying.
__________________
ďOf all the paths you take in life, make sure a few of them are dirt.Ē John Muir
MuirWannabe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2021, 05:00 PM   #74
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 33,402
Quote:
Originally Posted by street View Post
I been selling scrap steel for 200$ a ton. You telling me those days are ovah?
You should sell what you still have left quick. Strike that iron while it's still hot.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2021, 05:27 PM   #75
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
street's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 6,936
I might have to get a load tomorrow. lol I'll call to see what the price is at.
street is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2021, 05:30 PM   #76
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands, TX
Posts: 15,991
I added two two of my natural gas positions and to one co-op preferred stock today when the market was down about 700 points. Kind of a small rebalance.

I also sold a 5 contract put and one covered call. The put was @ $50 (09/24/21 exp) on OKE, a stock that got called from me @ $55 Friday. Rather than just buy it back, I placed the put sale. I'd like to buy it around $50 as I have done before. It's one of my nat gas plays.
__________________
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth...philosopher Mike Tyson
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-20-2021, 06:10 PM   #77
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 33,402
Here's the video I saw last week of home buyers protesting outside an Evergrande office, when they realized the homes they had on contract will never get finished and delivered.

From a Time Magazine article:

Quote:
A key feature of China’s property market is that many buyers pay the full price upfront rather than relying on mortgages.

And it happened time and time again. Makes me wonder how the people keep ponying up their hard-earned savings for a contract not worth the paper it is printed on. But that's the Chinese way, where the consumers get no protection. So sad.


See: https://time.com/6099000/china-evergrande/.



__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2021, 07:12 AM   #78
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Crownsville
Posts: 3,003
I just ran my numbers this morning. My last peak was on 9/3, up 15.29% for the year. I'm now up 11.13%. So, I've been knocked back 4.16%. Not quite 5% yet, for me, but it's in the realm of possibility.
Andre1969 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2021, 08:31 AM   #79
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Markola's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Twin Cities
Posts: 3,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by street View Post
I been selling scrap steel for 200$ a ton. You telling me those days are ovah?


Street, Iím curious if this is your business, side-hustle or some kind of paper trade for you.
Markola is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2021, 08:45 AM   #80
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 10,968
Heh, heh, looks like the market is doing what I've been too lazy to do: Rebalance my "excessive" equity position back to 30%. YMMV
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
setbacks and elusive goals Aspire FIRE and Money 23 12-24-2014 02:50 PM
Bush to Congress: drop dead brewer12345 Other topics 4 02-21-2006 08:28 PM
Will the young dreamers chances of ER depend on a market drop? wildcat Young Dreamers 6 05-27-2005 02:38 PM
Shop 'til you drop John Galt FIRE and Money 14 10-22-2004 12:23 PM
Work Until You Drop BunsGettingFirm Other topics 34 09-16-2004 08:10 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:51 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.