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09-20-2021, 11:06 AM
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#61
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MRG
Selling puts.
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Too early yet, I think. And I have to count my existing puts first. Stock AA still too high, as I mentioned.
About Evergrande collapse, the news showed Chinese people crowding outside the company offices, wanting their money back. One elderly Chinese woman said she sold both of her condos to buy a nice new one, which may never get built. She threatened to jump off a building. A lot of panicky people.
People were waiting to see if Xi Jinping, the PRC chairman, is going to bail out Evergrande.
Here's one of the several videos one can find on YouTube.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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09-20-2021, 11:41 AM
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#62
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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OK, just counted the puts I already sold last week. The liability on them is 3.5% of my portfolio.
I am not going to sell any more puts, unless the market crashes so hard people are crying "Uncle", and banging their head against their pillow, and threatening to jump off their front porch.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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09-20-2021, 12:53 PM
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#63
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Santa Clara County
Posts: 151
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Now down 2.6 %.
Starting to get interesting….
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09-20-2021, 12:54 PM
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#64
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,645
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Only $300 Billion US in default....heck Xi can cover that with spare change. But he won't bail out the foreign holders. That will be done by the "J Team" and other Central Banks!
Plus, the properties in default (when that happens) will be sold to recoup the losses.
__________________
*********Go Astros!*********
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09-20-2021, 01:17 PM
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#65
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,232
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steeler75
Now down 2.6 %.
Starting to get interesting….
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Yup, the 5% drop is not elusive anymore. Over 400 days since the last one.
__________________
TGIM
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09-20-2021, 02:04 PM
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#66
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,686
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They clapped at the closing bell. It's all good!
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09-20-2021, 02:10 PM
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#67
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Texas
Posts: 10,864
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There was a lot of money to be made today.... Great day for a swing trader but it didn't materialize until the last 15 mins.... What a ride...
__________________
20's "something" mind, trapped in a 70's "something" body
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09-20-2021, 03:05 PM
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#68
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,686
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In an after the bell show a commentator said, "I don't know exactly what we're looking at here, but..."
And then he went on and on. Lol!
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09-20-2021, 03:15 PM
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#69
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 155
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I have CDs maturing next week. Yay
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09-20-2021, 03:18 PM
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#70
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aja8888
Only $300 Billion US in default....heck Xi can cover that with spare change. But he won't bail out the foreign holders. That will be done by the "J Team" and other Central Banks!
Plus, the properties in default (when that happens) will be sold to recoup the losses.
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I heard that only $30B, or 10% of the loan, is owned by foreign investors. And then, there are creditors other than US banks.
But is this just the tip of the iceberg? Evergrande is only the 2nd-ranked Chinese real-estate developer. As Buffett famously said during the US subprime crisis, "only when the tide is out that we know who has been swimming nekkid".
About selling unfinished properties to raise money, China already has a huge stockpile of finished and unfinished properties, actually entire ghost cities, sitting there rotting away for years with no takers. Who wants these recent skeletons of high-rise buildings?
This will crimp China economic growth. They will need less steel, copper, etc... A US steel maker that I hold was pummeled down nearly 10% today. Not that it exports to China, but the steel price gets hammered, and whole industries become collateral damages. Will the Chinese consumers be buying EVs soon? The pain is going to spread.
Aye, aye, aye... Buy, buy, buy?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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09-20-2021, 03:32 PM
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#71
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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By the way, the interest not getting paid by Evergrande is on an 8.25% bond.
Even banks could not help chasing yield. Heh heh heh...
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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09-20-2021, 03:52 PM
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#72
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,422
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
I heard that only $30B, or 10% of the loan, is owned by foreign investors. And then, there are creditors other than US banks.
But is this just the tip of the iceberg? Evergrande is only the 2nd-ranked Chinese real-estate developer. As Buffett famously said during the US subprime crisis, "only when the tide is out that we know who has been swimming nekkid".
About selling unfinished properties to raise money, China already has a huge stockpile of finished and unfinished properties, actually entire ghost cities, sitting there rotting away for years with no takers. Who wants these recent skeletons of high-rise buildings?
This will crimp China economic growth. They will need less steel, copper, etc... A US steel maker that I hold was pummeled down nearly 10% today. Not that it exports to China, but the steel price gets hammered, and whole industries become collateral damages. Will the Chinese consumers be buying EVs soon? The pain is going to spread.
Aye, aye, aye... Buy, buy, buy?
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I been selling scrap steel for 200$ a ton. You telling me those days are ovah?
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09-20-2021, 04:58 PM
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#73
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 2,110
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Classic problem with me. Like others, I’m holding a good chunk of cash waiting for a drop to invest it. Then a drop (mild so far) comes, and I sit wondering if it’ll go a lot further. So, I wait rather than deploying some of that cash into equities. Tomorrow it will probably rocket back up and I’ve missed my opportunity. Market timing is so easy. So rewarding. So annoying.
__________________
“Of all the paths you take in life, make sure a few of them are dirt.” John Muir
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09-20-2021, 05:00 PM
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#74
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by street
I been selling scrap steel for 200$ a ton. You telling me those days are ovah?
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You should sell what you still have left quick. Strike that iron while it's still hot.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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09-20-2021, 05:27 PM
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#75
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,422
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I might have to get a load tomorrow. lol I'll call to see what the price is at.
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09-20-2021, 05:30 PM
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#76
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,645
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I added two two of my natural gas positions and to one co-op preferred stock today when the market was down about 700 points. Kind of a small rebalance.
I also sold a 5 contract put and one covered call. The put was @ $50 (09/24/21 exp) on OKE, a stock that got called from me @ $55 Friday. Rather than just buy it back, I placed the put sale. I'd like to buy it around $50 as I have done before. It's one of my nat gas plays.
__________________
*********Go Astros!*********
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09-20-2021, 06:10 PM
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#77
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Here's the video I saw last week of home buyers protesting outside an Evergrande office, when they realized the homes they had on contract will never get finished and delivered.
From a Time Magazine article:
Quote:
A key feature of China’s property market is that many buyers pay the full price upfront rather than relying on mortgages.
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And it happened time and time again. Makes me wonder how the people keep ponying up their hard-earned savings for a contract not worth the paper it is printed on. But that's the Chinese way, where the consumers get no protection. So sad.
See: https://time.com/6099000/china-evergrande/.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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09-21-2021, 07:12 AM
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#78
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Crownsville
Posts: 3,711
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I just ran my numbers this morning. My last peak was on 9/3, up 15.29% for the year. I'm now up 11.13%. So, I've been knocked back 4.16%. Not quite 5% yet, for me, but it's in the realm of possibility.
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09-21-2021, 08:31 AM
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#79
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Twin Cities
Posts: 3,927
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Quote:
Originally Posted by street
I been selling scrap steel for 200$ a ton. You telling me those days are ovah?
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Street, I’m curious if this is your business, side-hustle or some kind of paper trade for you.
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09-21-2021, 08:45 AM
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#80
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 17,809
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Heh, heh, looks like the market is doing what I've been too lazy to do: Rebalance my "excessive" equity position back to 30%. YMMV
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -
Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
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