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Old 09-20-2021, 11:06 AM   #61
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Selling puts.
Too early yet, I think. And I have to count my existing puts first. Stock AA still too high, as I mentioned.


About Evergrande collapse, the news showed Chinese people crowding outside the company offices, wanting their money back. One elderly Chinese woman said she sold both of her condos to buy a nice new one, which may never get built. She threatened to jump off a building. A lot of panicky people.

People were waiting to see if Xi Jinping, the PRC chairman, is going to bail out Evergrande.

Here's one of the several videos one can find on YouTube.

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Old 09-20-2021, 11:41 AM   #62
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OK, just counted the puts I already sold last week. The liability on them is 3.5% of my portfolio.

I am not going to sell any more puts, unless the market crashes so hard people are crying "Uncle", and banging their head against their pillow, and threatening to jump off their front porch.
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Old 09-20-2021, 12:53 PM   #63
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Now down 2.6 %.

Starting to get interesting….
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Old 09-20-2021, 12:54 PM   #64
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Only $300 Billion US in default....heck Xi can cover that with spare change. But he won't bail out the foreign holders. That will be done by the "J Team" and other Central Banks!

Plus, the properties in default (when that happens) will be sold to recoup the losses.
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Old 09-20-2021, 01:17 PM   #65
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Now down 2.6 %.

Starting to get interesting….
Yup, the 5% drop is not elusive anymore. Over 400 days since the last one.
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Old 09-20-2021, 02:04 PM   #66
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They clapped at the closing bell. It's all good!
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Old 09-20-2021, 02:10 PM   #67
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There was a lot of money to be made today.... Great day for a swing trader but it didn't materialize until the last 15 mins.... What a ride...
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Old 09-20-2021, 03:05 PM   #68
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In an after the bell show a commentator said, "I don't know exactly what we're looking at here, but..."
And then he went on and on. Lol!
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Old 09-20-2021, 03:15 PM   #69
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I have CDs maturing next week. Yay
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Old 09-20-2021, 03:18 PM   #70
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Only $300 Billion US in default....heck Xi can cover that with spare change. But he won't bail out the foreign holders. That will be done by the "J Team" and other Central Banks!

Plus, the properties in default (when that happens) will be sold to recoup the losses.
I heard that only $30B, or 10% of the loan, is owned by foreign investors. And then, there are creditors other than US banks.

But is this just the tip of the iceberg? Evergrande is only the 2nd-ranked Chinese real-estate developer. As Buffett famously said during the US subprime crisis, "only when the tide is out that we know who has been swimming nekkid".

About selling unfinished properties to raise money, China already has a huge stockpile of finished and unfinished properties, actually entire ghost cities, sitting there rotting away for years with no takers. Who wants these recent skeletons of high-rise buildings?

This will crimp China economic growth. They will need less steel, copper, etc... A US steel maker that I hold was pummeled down nearly 10% today. Not that it exports to China, but the steel price gets hammered, and whole industries become collateral damages. Will the Chinese consumers be buying EVs soon? The pain is going to spread.

Aye, aye, aye... Buy, buy, buy?
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Old 09-20-2021, 03:32 PM   #71
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By the way, the interest not getting paid by Evergrande is on an 8.25% bond.

Even banks could not help chasing yield. Heh heh heh...
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Old 09-20-2021, 03:52 PM   #72
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Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
I heard that only $30B, or 10% of the loan, is owned by foreign investors. And then, there are creditors other than US banks.

But is this just the tip of the iceberg? Evergrande is only the 2nd-ranked Chinese real-estate developer. As Buffett famously said during the US subprime crisis, "only when the tide is out that we know who has been swimming nekkid".

About selling unfinished properties to raise money, China already has a huge stockpile of finished and unfinished properties, actually entire ghost cities, sitting there rotting away for years with no takers. Who wants these recent skeletons of high-rise buildings?

This will crimp China economic growth. They will need less steel, copper, etc... A US steel maker that I hold was pummeled down nearly 10% today. Not that it exports to China, but the steel price gets hammered, and whole industries become collateral damages. Will the Chinese consumers be buying EVs soon? The pain is going to spread.

Aye, aye, aye... Buy, buy, buy?
I been selling scrap steel for 200$ a ton. You telling me those days are ovah?
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Old 09-20-2021, 04:58 PM   #73
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Classic problem with me. Like others, I’m holding a good chunk of cash waiting for a drop to invest it. Then a drop (mild so far) comes, and I sit wondering if it’ll go a lot further. So, I wait rather than deploying some of that cash into equities. Tomorrow it will probably rocket back up and I’ve missed my opportunity. Market timing is so easy. So rewarding. So annoying.
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Old 09-20-2021, 05:00 PM   #74
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I been selling scrap steel for 200$ a ton. You telling me those days are ovah?
You should sell what you still have left quick. Strike that iron while it's still hot.
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Old 09-20-2021, 05:27 PM   #75
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I might have to get a load tomorrow. lol I'll call to see what the price is at.
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Old 09-20-2021, 05:30 PM   #76
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I added two two of my natural gas positions and to one co-op preferred stock today when the market was down about 700 points. Kind of a small rebalance.

I also sold a 5 contract put and one covered call. The put was @ $50 (09/24/21 exp) on OKE, a stock that got called from me @ $55 Friday. Rather than just buy it back, I placed the put sale. I'd like to buy it around $50 as I have done before. It's one of my nat gas plays.
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Old 09-20-2021, 06:10 PM   #77
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Here's the video I saw last week of home buyers protesting outside an Evergrande office, when they realized the homes they had on contract will never get finished and delivered.

From a Time Magazine article:

Quote:
A key feature of China’s property market is that many buyers pay the full price upfront rather than relying on mortgages.

And it happened time and time again. Makes me wonder how the people keep ponying up their hard-earned savings for a contract not worth the paper it is printed on. But that's the Chinese way, where the consumers get no protection. So sad.


See: https://time.com/6099000/china-evergrande/.



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Old 09-21-2021, 07:12 AM   #78
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I just ran my numbers this morning. My last peak was on 9/3, up 15.29% for the year. I'm now up 11.13%. So, I've been knocked back 4.16%. Not quite 5% yet, for me, but it's in the realm of possibility.
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Old 09-21-2021, 08:31 AM   #79
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I been selling scrap steel for 200$ a ton. You telling me those days are ovah?


Street, I’m curious if this is your business, side-hustle or some kind of paper trade for you.
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Old 09-21-2021, 08:45 AM   #80
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Heh, heh, looks like the market is doing what I've been too lazy to do: Rebalance my "excessive" equity position back to 30%. YMMV
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