End of 2nd QTR loss question

[Drake3287]

Okay, I'll be careful not to violate any forum rules pertaining to politics but I have to ask, now that we've started the 3rd quarter of 2022, How much in value have you lost from your stock investments?

After looking this morning, I'm at a 25% loss from my personal stock portfolio for 2022 and I don't see any end in sight. For me, this is real money I invested, not simply a 401k like many others might have. And yes, I realize a stock market correction is both normal and expected but how long are we going to watch it go down everyday before anyones willing to really say anything? It's almost like if we do, we're all of a sudden one of "those" people.

I'm also diversified in all my other investments thank goodness so I'll be fine in the long run but as I get older these huge hits certainly hit home harder then let's say the last recession. I'm just surprised that we don't hear more from the millions of other mainstream Americans in this same situation. It's almost like how dare you blame this on this person or that person. Personally I do.

 

[braumeister]

How much in value have you lost from your stock investments?

I haven't lost anything. There can be no loss unless you sell, and I have no interest in selling anything now. I still have the same number of shares I started with.

See? My way of looking at it is just as valid as another.

 

[W2R]

I haven't lost anything. There can be no loss unless you sell, and I have no interest in selling anything now. I still have the same number of shares I started with.

See? My way of looking at it is just as valid as another.

+1

But if I *did* sell, I'd lose 11%. Not a big deal. I have a low risk tolerance and my portfolio is designed with that in mind, suitable for "buy-and-hold". When things get dicey, I just hang on and wait for it to get better.

If I get REALLY nervous, I just play Animal Crossing, my peaceful, calming video game. That always settles me down.

 

[steelyman]

I haven't lost anything. There can be no loss unless you sell, and I have no interest in selling anything now. I still have the same number of shares I started with.

See? My way of looking at it is just as valid as another.

There was a local NPR station in my former hometown that had a daily talk/interview show. There was a recurring guest that appeared monthly, a finance professor and very wise man. I rarely missed his segments.

During the 2008-9 mess, he kept repeating (mainly to those listeners still contributing to their retirement plans) “you are in share accumulation mode, not price accumulation. Downturns are welcome at this point if you aren’t selling”.

 

[NW-Bound]

How much in value have you lost from your stock investments?

People post their number here: 2022 Investment Performance Thread

 

[COcheesehead]

Whether you sell or not, if your account is up or down, none of that matters, the value you have today is the amount of funds you begin the rest of your life with.
Someone smarter than me once said in response to buy and hold, you need to also take into account market risk. If you are retired, SORR is real and should be included in your planning. Taking a big slice off the top of your pile at the beginning of retirement, will take years out of your plan.

 

[Aerides]

For me, this is real money I invested, not simply a 401k like many others might have.

Not sure why the differentiation, but all my money is real money I invested, whether it's in taxable or not.

But either way, I haven't "lost" because I haven't sold. And this is why I have a portion of my NW in cash equivalents, to cover 2-3 years of expenses. Then, if I needed to sell enough to make that 4-5, oh well. Chances are it won't come to that, and even if it does, meh.

Today, I don't have to sell. Also, I don't have to look. I mean I kinda do every few weeks and then I go "oh bad idea" and don't look again.

 

[sengsational]

For me, this is real money I invested, not simply a 401k like many others might have.

Thanks goodness 401k money isn't real! That means that my latest mark-to-market delta isn't measured in Ferraris.

 

[jazz4cash]

I'm just surprised that we don't hear more from the millions of other mainstream Americans in this same situation. It's almost like how dare you blame this on this person or that person. Personally I do.

I don't think the millions of other mainstream American have lost as much because they didn't have the money to begin with.

Since you are diversified it may help to look at your entire portfolio instead of concentrating on the losses in the segment you've identified as "personal stock" I don't see how it's any different in a 401k account except you cannot use tax loss harvesting. If these losses are troubling to you, maybe your asset allocation is too risky. I think we could have more losses ahead and it may take a long while to recover from where we are.

 

[MissMolly]

As a self-employed person for more than a decade, my Solo 401k was by far the account with the largest balance. Good thing I closed it when I retired and moved it into my IRA before I discovered it wasn't real money.

 

[NW-Bound]

... I'm just surprised that we don't hear more from the millions of other mainstream Americans in this same situation. It's almost like how dare you blame this on this person or that person. Personally I do.

The gain since 1/1/2020 was unreal. Who wouldda thunk the market would go nuts during a pandemic, when people dropped like flies around the world?

Obviously, the gummint pumping money into the system had a lot to do with it. And this money largesse occurred under two administrations.

I don't blame anybody. The stock gain was not caused by increased economic activities, not by business growth. It is a bubble. And now, air is being let out of the bubble.

 

[OldShooter]

We've been ignoring market gyrations since 1987. It's worked out fine. But, sorry to say @Drake3287, 25% is not a "huge hit." Average, maybe?

... how long are we going to watch it go down everyday ... ? ...

Easy solution: Stop watching. Check back in a year or two. Or five. We look our portfolio over annually during the Christmas/New Year week. Once in a while we make a trade or two as a result.

... It's almost like how dare you blame this on this person or that person. Personally I do.

You really think there is an actual person who is to blame for the market going down? Who?

 

[jollystomper]

I'm just surprised that we don't hear more from the millions of other mainstream Americans in this same situation. It's almost like how dare you blame this on this person or that person. Personally I do.

For those focused on investing, from the stock market perspective, politics seldom matters as historically there have been both big gains and big losses regardless of the administration. If you do not need the money immediately you have not lost anything. Anyone who immediately gets out of the market based on which party gets elected will miss out big time on long term growth.

Blaming people does not grow your portfolio. One should just plan for ups and downs as one establishes their AA - I, and others do, set aside cash so that we can choose not to realize paper losses during these downturns. That is what matters to me.

 

[5Miler]

I will not be the one to tell my DGF that her 7 figure 401K is not real money as I don't have a death wish. It sure seemed like real money all the years we contributed to our 401Ks.

My personal WR is at 0% this year since starting Social Security late last year so market ups and downs are easy to ignore. DGF is limiting income for ACA and will for two more years so she also isn't faced with a big WR. She has enough in cash to get her through and then it's SS time for her too. We are both heavy equities but with our minimum withdrawal needs, it's just not an issue. If it was an issue we wouldn't be leaning so hard into equities as we are both about 80/20.

 

[Car-Guy]

I'll give the exact same answer that I gave this morning to basically the same question to the other active thread that was asking the same general question. https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/2022-investment-performance-thread-112573.html

My mom always told me if I can't say something "positive", just don't say anything at all. Soooooo,

 

[MichaelB]

We've been ignoring market gyrations since 1987. It's worked out fine. But, sorry to say @Drake3287, 25% is not a "huge hit." Average, maybe?

I’m not sure it’s even average. I read earlier today (but can’t find the link) that the average decline of bear markets since WW2 is a bit more than 30% and I think the SP500 is only down 20% so far.

Here’s a short article on bear markets for interested readers https://www.investopedia.com/a-history-of-bear-markets-4582652

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

The SP500 down 20.58% is masking the damage.
The nasdaq is down 29.5%, Russell 2000 about 25%, Tech Spyder down 28%, semi-conductors down 39%, consumer discretionary down 33%.

What has "helped" the market has been the energy components, which most people are not invested in because they've been told that it was a dying industry and that the smart money should invest in tech, especially all that new fancy stuff that is going to change the world.

So I think the "typical" investor might have some stocks and funds that make the pain all that much worse. Nothing new here, every market bubble these are (were) the go-to gotta-be-in-them kinds of investments.

But gotta agree with the "just average" discussion - it could definitely be worse (and we might just see how much worse as we are EARLY in what would be a typical life-span of a bear).

 

[calmloki]

We've been ignoring market gyrations since 1987. It's worked out fine. ......
You really think there is an actual person who is to blame for the market going down? Who?

I've proven to myself that I don't know nothin' 'bout what makes the market go uppity down. We record end of day prices every day the market is open and adjust our net worth. Sort of bothers me, but inflation bothers me more. Our working theory is that the gyrations are strictly due to paparazzo shots of starlets trying to exit limousines in short dresses. Stocks drop $40k in a day? Ahh, says we, "Britney". And gal and I nod, knowingly. then shrug.

Britney Spears' Fans, Come Home! - Citizen of the Month

 

[Hank]

My theory: the bottom is when lots of people with exactly your sentiment hold on through most of the decline until they can't stand it anymore and then they all decide to get out now at about the same time. Just like weak hands at a poker game.



It doesn't seem like we are there yet. There isn't really that much panic selling like other bear markets except for the crypto market. Also, people are still giving money to Cathy Wood so the appetite for risk isn't completely gone.

 

[GravitySucks]

Not sure what my equities have lost but from the top my portfolio has lost a house. A nice house, not this place.

The way I'm looking at it though is my portfolio is the same size it was in November 2020. That's after withdrawing 2 years living expenses plus another years expenses worth as a 'loan' to DD2.
I didn't feel broke 11/2022 so why should I feel bad now.
The real loss has been the 10% inflation since then. Even that, my expectations were 3% a year and from retirement date of 3/2013 we are just about there with the recent bump.

Why is the 'loss' always from the market peaks?

 

[jebmke]

Okay, I'll be careful not to violate any forum rules pertaining to politics but I have to ask, now that we've started the 3rd quarter of 2022, How much in value have you lost from your stock investments?

After looking this morning, I'm at a 25% loss from my personal stock portfolio for 2022 and I don't see any end in sight. For me, this is real money I invested, not simply a 401k like many others might have. And yes, I realize a stock market correction is both normal and expected but how long are we going to watch it go down everyday before anyones willing to really say anything? It's almost like if we do, we're all of a sudden one of "those" people.

I'm also diversified in all my other investments thank goodness so I'll be fine in the long run but as I get older these huge hits certainly hit home harder then let's say the last recession. I'm just surprised that we don't hear more from the millions of other mainstream Americans in this same situation. It's almost like how dare you blame this on this person or that person. Personally I do.

What would you have them say?

My equity is down ~20% (before today) and my bonds are down about 4%.

I'm old enough to remember losing 22% on equity in one day. I retired on December 31, 2007 and we know how that turned out (not my fault!).

 

[Dtail]

Okay, I'll be careful not to violate any forum rules pertaining to politics but I have to ask, now that we've started the 3rd quarter of 2022, How much in value have you lost from your stock investments?

After looking this morning, I'm at a 25% loss from my personal stock portfolio for 2022 and I don't see any end in sight. For me, this is real money I invested, not simply a 401k like many others might have. And yes, I realize a stock market correction is both normal and expected but how long are we going to watch it go down everyday before anyones willing to really say anything? It's almost like if we do, we're all of a sudden one of "those" people.

I'm also diversified in all my other investments thank goodness so I'll be fine in the long run but as I get older these huge hits certainly hit home harder then let's say the last recession. I'm just surprised that we don't hear more from the millions of other mainstream Americans in this same situation. It's almost like how dare you blame this on this person or that person. Personally I do.

Should we blame "that" person for the rich getting most of the last tax cuts passed too?

 

[pb4uski]

Okay, I'll be careful not to violate any forum rules pertaining to politics but I have to ask, now that we've started the 3rd quarter of 2022, How much in value have you lost from your stock investments?

After looking this morning, I'm at a 25% loss from my personal stock portfolio for 2022 and I don't see any end in sight. For me, this is real money I invested, not simply a 401k like many others might have. And yes, I realize a stock market correction is both normal and expected but how long are we going to watch it go down everyday before anyones willing to really say anything? It's almost like if we do, we're all of a sudden one of "those" people.

I'm also diversified in all my other investments thank goodness so I'll be fine in the long run but as I get older these huge hits certainly hit home harder then let's say the last recession. I'm just surprised that we don't hear more from the millions of other mainstream Americans in this same situation. It's almost like how dare you blame this on this person or that person. Personally I do.

A few thoughts:

First, poltics has little to do with it. The last part of your OP is a common thought and drives me nuts. People really think that the WH, whether Dems or GOP, actually have a significant influence on stock prices? or on gas prices? When I hear such poppycock I fear for the future of democracy. The reality is that whoever occupies the WH has negligible impact on either stock prices or gas prices, so please grow up.

Second, this downturn seems to have rattled you. You may want to reassess what AA you are comfortable with.

Third, there is no person to blame and with all due respect, if you really think that is the case then you really don't understand how the stock market works. Its a little naive to think that any one single person can say or do anything that will impact stock prices. Like I say, if there are a lot of people of that ilk, I fear for the future of the democracy.

Finally, to answer your question, about 5% loss (YTD realized and unrealized equity losses divided by beginning of year portfolio).

 

[target2019]

It takes some experience and a level of maturity to recognize that your choices in the past are what dictate your share of growth in the future. But there is expected decline. Recessions are part of capitalism. Some ignore that and put too much into equities. Ok, gains were out-sized for a nice period of time. Now there is a decline and some may be mad because the market did not climb forever.

Whatever.

 

[madatrub]

The reality is that whoever occupies the WH has negligible impact on either stock prices or gas prices, so please grow up.

Wont disagree with you on most of what you said, but I take issue with the gas price bit. Administration policies certainly do and can impact gas prices, as we've seen over the last 5 years.