Equities and terrorists

[guest]

Of course, if there were drastically fewer people on this planet there would be plenty of oil for everyone. Take a look at a population chart sometime. It goes straight up like that private rocket plane did yesterday. That's the real cause of almost all our ills, from pollution to energy to fiscal crisis to even most wars. Imagine a modern world that had the population of 300 years ago (less than 1 billion I believe).

 

[BigMoneyJim]

Of course, if there were drastically fewer people on this planet there would be plenty of oil for everyone.

Ah, finally a reasonable justifiction for the Iraq invasion. The ethnic cleansers had the right idea all along. Or perhaps we just have too much sex. (I'm glaring at John Galt and TH.) Of course this paragraph is completely sarcastic in a way that isn't really called for. Consider it comic relief, not an argument.

Take a look at a population chart sometime. It goes straight up like that private rocket plane did yesterday. That's the real cause of almost all our ills, from pollution to energy to fiscal crisis to even most wars. Imagine a modern world that had the population of 300 years ago (less than 1 billion I believe).

I think I see what you're saying, but I'm wondering if the worlds "modern"ness was driven by population or was population driven by technology (how I'm defining "modern" here). Or if you mean "modern" by social changes, then I have to wonder about which caused which with respect to society and technology.

Much of today's daily life is based on economies of scale. If we had a magical kind agreeable way to roll back the world population to some ideal number with respect to energy consumption I doubt we could maintain the infrastructure to support the lifestyle of the modern world. We might all be farmers or nomads again.

More generally, I don't see how the U.S. can reduce energy consumption long-term and maintain the lifestyle we've achieved. Every now and then I check into ways to reduce my energy use, but outside of shrinking my car occasionally I can't find a way of reducing energy use without radically changing my lifestyle. U.S. urban and suburban infrastructure was built with personal powered transportation in mind; things could be improved some with better mass transportation but our cities really aren't laid out for it with possible exeptions for the top 3-5 population centers. Furthermore our buildings for the most part are built for either economy of money or aesthetic design with no regard for how to use the immediate environment to reduce energy use: use canned plans, pack 'em tight and crank the A/C or heat.

The only two resolutions I see to the energy issues are:

1: Radically change the lifestyle and redevelop major and minor population centers of the modern world.

2: Figure out how to expand into and obtain energy from space. It'll take a while longer to fill that up. Perhaps from space we can obtain and eject radioactive materials for reactors. Or maybe launch orbital solar collectors or mine asteroids/comets.

 

[John Galt]

This is not comic relief, just an opinion. I believe that
practically all problems with the environment
are caused by overpopulation of people. Mother nature
will take care of the planet without humans mucking
things up. In fact, I agree that people are mostly a
plague on the earth, being the only species to
deliberately try to improve what nature has done,
on a broad scale. Probably the only common ground
I have with the left wing tree-huggers.

John Galt

 

[BigMoneyJim]

This is not comic relief, just an opinion. I believe that
practically all problems with the environment
are caused by overpopulation of people. Mother nature
will take care of the planet without humans mucking
things up. In fact, I agree that people are mostly a
plague on the earth, being the only species to
deliberately try to improve what nature has done,
on a broad scale. Probably the only common ground
I have with the left wing tree-huggers.

John Galt

I don't think it's fair to single humans out as the plague of the earth. Other species overpopulate from time to time and later die down because they consume all their resources. As humans our distinction is being seemingly the most succuessful overpopulator to date, but I can't help but wonder if our egos cloud our vision on that judgement, too.

Also, most species alter their environment. Again, humans are more successful than most with our opposable thumbs and technology. Until the relatively recent advent of the steam and combustion engine we used animal labor for altering the environment (mass farming, irrigation, mining, plant/forrest harvesting and associated transportation issues). It wouldn't surprise me to find that other species to try to "improve what mother nature has done," and if they don't it's only because they lack the ability.

I don't see humans as a plague, but I think we should note that other species who overpopulate suffer a starving reduction in population sooner or later and we should worry about the suffering we or our children could be in for if we don't plan carefully. Mother nature will survive; it's us I worry about.

 

[John Galt]

Re. "Mother Nature will survive, it's us I worry about".
I hold the exact opposite view.

John Galt

 

[BigMoneyJim]

Re. "Mother Nature will survive, it's us I worry about".
I hold the exact opposite view.

John Galt

I don't expect to change your opinion, but I'm in a babbling mood this week.

Mother nature on Earth has already survived ice ages and catastrophic mass extinction event asteroid impacts. I think our species' best chance of surviving just one such event is to colonize other planets/moons. (I'm not factoring this into my asset allocation decisions, though.) I don't think we're quite ready for that even on a small scale, so I'm just hoping the big space rocks keep missing and the oceans stay warm for at least a few hundred more years.

If we humans really got together and set out to destroy mother nature (she is harboring and developing biological weaponry after all) I figure we could take out most land and sea mammals, most avian life, a fair bit of the reptiles, much complex sea life living near the coasts and in the top couple hundred feet of sea, most of the trees and if we're lucky up to half of other green plant life. But that's all. Then we'd starve and all the insects, rats, the remaining sprouting plant life, very few lucky remnant survivors of species, the bacteria and deep sea life would reestablish a new healthy ecosystem in no time--probably a few years to a few decades.

 

[BigMoneyJim]

I just realized my previous post demonstrates a strong scientific bias. From a different bias, Earth was created with all we humans will consume, and our ultimate future is already planned.

Either way, we control whether our destiny is agreeable or disagreeable.

 

[bow-tie]

...looks like oldcrowcall's question got hijacked a bit, but its great discussion nonetheless.

I think planning for such contingencies within an asset allocation framework is extremely difficult.

...and I also think we, as a planet, need to get our acts together and think about how our behaviors affect Mother Nature, and our fellow planet inhabitants.

 

[charlie]

TH, I didn't say developing a hydrogen economy would
be easy or quick. Look at it this way ..... 2/3 of the
planet is water. If we can figure out how to convert
water to hydrogen and oxygen with a net energy
gain we will have it made. So what if it takes 30
years to make the transformation. The economic
impact would rival the invention of the wheel, steam
engine, telephone, transistor ...... you name it.

BTW, my vision of a hydrogen economy is really
electric power generation using generators run
on hydrogen. This requires a break-through on
converting water to hydrogen & oxygen gas. It
also requires a break-through on batteries for
electric cars. Given these two gifts, the rest is
mostly already in place (electric grid & highways),

I agree that while "shooting the moon" we need to
be reducing consumption and increasing the supply
of oil. I have posted before about my interest in
hybrid electric cars as a method of educing our oil needs. We could do this immediately as a short term
fix if the pols would encourage it.

Wind and solar power are options for some areas
but would not solve the problem generally.

Some will pee on my shoes for saying this but I think
nuclear power deserves another look. I am by no
means a nuclear engineer but I seem to recall reading
about new designs that can't melt down. My question
is why can't we design a small, "bullet proof" automated
reactor for mass production with pre approval by the AEC? I think building a lot of small reactors rather
than a few giants would be more efficient and give us
a good export item to boot.

I ramble and grow weary. Elect me president and
I promise to PO everybody.

Cheers,

Charlie

 

[johnblake]

More generally, I don't see how the U.S. can reduce energy consumption long-term and maintain the lifestyle we've achieved.

Changing our 'lifestyle' is probably a good thing. As most ERs can attest, popular definitions 'standard of living' are often misleading. For example, I think my standard of living improved when I quit the 50-60 hour per week job, sold the big house, and moved into a smaller place. Now, I'm sharing a 1000 sq ft home. It's plenty for me, and I'd rather spend the time doing things I enjoy, than working to keep up a large house. I'm using less energy, spending less money, and my standard of living is higher. I know, I'm preaching to the choir, but I think the same arguments hold for energy usage. We live in a culture that wastes large amounts of energy, without considering the consequences. One obvious example is people driving around in 300HP SUVs with 1-2 passengers in the city (or at 60 mph on the highway). My first modern car had 92 HP, and it was plenty. In addition to being wasteful, the SUV culture is detrimental to traffic safety.

Here are some east ways to reduce energy consumption
- drive fuel efficient cars and trucks.
- consider downsizing your house (I see many two person families living in 2500 sq ft houses)
- watch your use heat and AC, use timers to control
- telecommute
- use public transportation when available.
- consider a solar clothes dryer (clothes line. I've been doing this for 2 years. It doesn't take much time.)
- make appropriate use of windows and shades to keep your home cool/warm (this makes a huge difference here in Hawaii).
- insulate your home

We should also remove the subsidies that the oil industry receives to enable fair competition with renewable energy technologies. The entire cost of the Iraq and war on terror, and aid to Israel and Egypt, should be paid out of oil taxes.

The cost of solar energy is falling. Here in Hawaii, solar hot water systems are very popular.

When it's appropriate Americans can change their behavior very quickly. I remember when I was a kid people would litter and think nothing of it. They'd regularly throw garbage out the window of their car on the highway. Then came the 'crying indian', and pollution awareness changed considerably. The culture (lifestyle) changed, and in this regard, our 'standard of living ' improved.

 

[Cut-Throat]

- telecommute

John,

We've got this one whipped, all of us ER's don't commute at all

 

[John Galt]

This is in response to ex-Jarhead. I say what I mean and I do what I say. If I post it, I believe it. However,
sometimes I use a little hyperbole for "flavor", and a
little sarcasm is okay too I think. Anyway, I confess to being a borderline misanthrope. Funny thing is I
really like people, it's just that a lot of them seem
more likeable at a distance. Regarding Mensa, it's
really just a social club for smart people. You can not believe the infighting when all that brainpower is
dumped together. I think that is why Mensans
tend to drink quite a lot. An aside. You will find a
huge number of Ayn Rand fans in Mensa. Some of you may know my on-line doppelganger is drawn from an Ayn Rand novel. Anyway, I am what I am and I like it just fine. I can see how it (my personality) is an
acquired taste, however

John Galt

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Charlie -

Your ideas are good ones and I hope I didnt come across as argumentative. Its simply that the breakthrough on hydrogen may take some time, and the conversion may take some time. The big problem is getting started and putting the time and money into it. Seems to me that has to come from the top, and the top guys right now smell like oil. The folks pumping the oil have a lot at stake and a lot of money and influence and politicians love both of those.

Nukes have some problems with the spent fuel rods (besides having them regularly stolen). Storage is a pisser. Also the reactor cores have a specific lifespan, and then you have a whole crapload of radioactive stainless steel and whatnot to deal with. Both maintain dangerous levels of radiation for a verrrry long time.

Jim - There is NO such thing as TOO MUCH sex. I just ran the numbers and the odds of a pair of 43 year olds ending up in this situation is between 1:10 and 1:5 in a year. I wish my portfolio did as well with longshots. What I think is interesting, and bears reading if you havent seen it, is Japan needing to advertise and motivate their younger people to have sex and make babies. A substantial trend is in place to have transient sexless uncomplicated relationships, sometimes almost 100% online. Isnt that interesting?

The treehugger/lefties have been floating an idea of "community apartment/workplaces" where people live and work in a large scale highly recycled energy efficient "building" surrounded by some farm lands, cattle and other critters, and a nearby water source.

That would certainly work. Given the rumors that the saudis and others really only have half the oil they claim to have (for obvious reasons) and that prospective new reserves may not be very substantial, coupled with dragging our feet on conservation, alternative sources, rising populations and whatnot...we may simply be forced into it at some point.

 

[COD]

A lot of the "solutions" proposed here boil down to cramming humans closer to each other. Smaller houses, more dense urban environments, communal living, etc etc etc.

I think that would bring on a whole host of new problems. I have no scientific evidence for this theory - but being only a young dreamer I still have to work so I don't have time for the research. Maybe one of you RE's can do do the grunt work

Just from observation of my fellow humans, and discussions with several police officer friends, I've concluded that it is not healthly for us to live and exist in close quarters. Several police friends have told me that there are always more problems in apartment and townhouse communities than in traditional single family communities. And it's not necessarily an income or class thing as around here townhomes go for over $250K. They think it's a space issue. People living closer together tend to behave worse.

Inner cities, subsidized housing, etc have traditionally been crime laden areas. What if it has nothing to do with income, class, etc. What if it is simple fact that if you cram people close together long term, bad stuff happens?

Hong Kong has the densest population on the planet, and also a high SOL and low crime rate. So that might blow my theory right out of the water.

My theory seems to hold in the US, so maybe it's just us. One thing I know for certain, I need space from my fellow man. I won't be suporting any soltution that will impede my ability to obtain 40 acres and mule

 

[wabmester]

I've concluded that it is not healthly for us to live and exist in close quarters.

Well, it's literally not healthy when it comes to communicable diseases, but I think what you're seeing is the fact that most crimes are crimes of opportunity. More opportunity = more crime.

 

[guest]

The current leadership may "smell" like oil. But they've authorized more money on hydrogen research by far than any other admin. How'd that Gore-led big three auto makers push for more fuel efficient cars go in the 90s? We got LOWER mpg's and MORE SUVs!

Also, I've not ever heard of any stolen fuel rods, let alone "regularly stolen".

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Gosh I didnt mean to start a partisan discussion with anonymous people. Just to be clear, I dont find much positive to say about the democrats OR the republicans. Just two slightly different shades of gray.

Try a little "google" for "stolen fuel rods" or "stolen nuclear material". The first few articles produced talk about the "missing" connecticut ones. Plenty of other articles on missing materials from this country and others.

I honestly cant say I have much interest on seeing what was spent by democrats vs republicans for hydrogen or higher mileage vehicles. Neither has spent enough. I wouldnt toot the horn for current high mileage vehicles being created by the current administration...such work didnt happen 2-3 years ago, anything on the road today was on the drawing boards a long time ago.

Funny thing that...anyone hear about the fiasco with the current hybrids fuel economy being nowhere near whats on the sticker? Turns out the method of measuring fuel economy simply doesnt work for hybrids, but they keep using it anyhow.

As far as the "smelling like oil" comment...well...the presidents whole family runs or has run oil companies all their lives and have done more than a billion dollars worth of recent oil business with middle east oil interests. The vice president's been up to his ears in oil and oil service companies through much of his life. What the heck else would you say?

 

[guest]

Try a little "google" for "stolen fuel rods" or "stolen nuclear material". The first few articles produced talk about the "missing" connecticut ones. Plenty of other articles on missing materials from this country and others.

Missing, could mean bookeeping errors. In any event, not regulary stolen.

I honestly cant say I have much interest on seeing what was spent by democrats vs republicans for hydrogen or higher mileage vehicles. Neither has spent enough.

What amount is enough? The current admin has budgeted over 1 billion. Where would more funds be taken from? Taxes? Other programs? I know, that catch-all "government waste". Like you, I wish it were so easy.

I wouldnt toot the horn for current high mileage vehicles being created by the current administration...such work didnt happen 2-3 years ago, anything on the road today was on the drawing boards a long time ago.

I agree, like I said it's gone down, not up.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Actually I see that while 1.2B was proposed in 2002 over a 5 year period, about $350M has been put into a variety of proposals, many of which divide the research between hydrogen and fossil fuels research. Only $22M actually spent this year so far. Granted every source I looked at had different numbers in them, but the $1.2B, $350M and $22M were the most commonly referenced.

What amount is enough? Cant answer that question definitively, but enough is enough to get us off our dependence on oil before it runs out or before we have to invade venezuela and finland for their al queda ties. I dont think 200-300M a year, divided up, is anywhere near enough.

Where does it come from? How about we take the $120B spent to date on the war in iraq and apply some of that? I think that'd be enough.

There are roughly 9000 registered "incidents" of LICENSED radioactive materials having been lost or stolen over the past 50 years. If you do the math, thats approximately one loss or theft every other day. I dont think that can be chalked up to bookkeeping. Seems regular to me. That doesnt include estimated losses of soviet plutonium and uranium sufficient to make at least 2 full size bombs, or the fact that 1/3-1/2 of the FSU's nuclear materials are still unaudited.

How about we settle on the fact that a lot of radioactive materials are unaccounted for, that mishaps happen more often than I think most people realize, and that a lot of materials remain unaccounted for? Note that little information on these events is available since 9/11 as the information is no longer made public. Here are some key excerpts:

. A huge source-term of radioactive Iridium is reported lost during shipping by Purolator courier on 12/11/96

· A plot to deliberately contaminate/irradiate a man is discovered near Philadelphia and the source is recovered 1995

· The Millstone Nuclear Plant can't account for two highly radioactive fuel rods 4/16/2001 US Nuclear regulatory Commission Press Release

· A woman near Pittsburgh takes into her home a contaminated floor scrubber which has radioactive levels more than 1000 times considered safe 10/96

· A gauge containing Cesium-137 is found at a shopping mall in Arkansas 3/2/99

· The US Navy reports 38 new cooking pots are made from steel contaminated with Cobalt-60 6/3/98

· Recliner chairs parts are manufactured with Cobalt-60 contaminated steel in Indiana 6/10/98

· A $5000 reward is offered in Florida for finding a missing potentially deadly radioactive camera 3/17/99

· A researcher at the University of California intentionally places radioactive phosphorus on another researcher's chair to deliberately contaminate her 7/2/99 (discovered)

· A doctor in Indiana PA disregards radiation alarms after a procedure which leads to the irradiation of more than 90 persons and kills the patient 11/92

· A plutonium pacemaker is reported missing by a hospital near Philadelphia 12/11/96

· 11 adults and 2 children are exposed to high levels of radiation at a Houston scrapyard and five police officers are exposed to low levels while conducting interviews 3/5/96

· Cesium-137 is found in the trunk of a crushed car at a scrapyard in Cincinnati 5/31/96

· The FBI is called upon to investigate the circumstances surrounding the discovery of a large stash of radioactive materials in the Bronx New York. Investigators found Cesium, Radium, Strontium-90 and Carbon-14. 6/22/98

· Radioactive iodine is found in diapers at a garbage dump in Indianapolis 3/95

· For the third time in 2 months, a hospital in Minneapolis receives a radioactive contaminated package from the same corporation 12/19/96

· Deliberate contamination incidents at MIT and the National Institute of Health are investigated by the FBI Summer 1995

· 33,000 shovel blades are made with steel contaminated with radioactive thorium near Harrisburg Pennsylvania 3/25/97

· Protective lead aprons for nuclear medicine workers are made from radioactive lead supplied from a company in Littlestown Pennsylvania 5/28/97

· 2,184 chemical agent detectors containing radioactive sources are reported lost in Europe by the US Army since 1989 4/22/97

· An Army surplus store in Fayetteville North Carolina sells a total of 42 personal lighting devices (map readers, personell illuminators, torches) containing a total of 90.35 curies of radioactive tritium to unknown individuals against NRC regulations

· A package of radioactive thallium falls out of a Federal Express van and is stuck by a car releasing its contents, Michigan 3/29/95 A similar event occurs in Massachusetts 12/18/96

· A truck driver loses a contaminated valve he is hauling near Philadelphia Pa. The driver is contaminated. 3/27/97

· A Federal Express cargo van loses a package of radioactive Xenon when it falls out the unsecured back door in Sacramento California 7/1/97

· A nuclear plant workers puts a radioactive source into the coat pocket of a female worker near Chicago 1995

· A Russian-produced fuel assembly with 126 fuel rods containing 2% enriched uranium is unaccounted for by a US crew in Lynchburg, Va. 11/15/96

 

[unclemick]

Duh? Double Duh? Whatever happened to Adam Smith's 'Invisible Hand', Build it and they will, free market and all that stuff. Perhaps wishfull thinking but how much taxpayer money did we give Toyota to develop Prius?

Of course, I feel there's a role for government/taxpayer money (Paid my wages for close to thirty years) - spending it wisely can be very elusive. Heh heh - my first job was working with titanium R&D on the American SST - how many of those have you seen flying around lately.

 

[guest]

Where does it come from? How about we take the $120B spent to date on the war in iraq and apply some of that? I think that'd be enough

I didn't know you had the ability to time travel. Or are you saying we should immediately pull all forces out of Iraq today. How much will that cost?

I agree much nuclear related material has been misplaced, though I'm not about to agree to the data listed. I distrust info found through googling, especially information that others could have an agenda "spinning". The problem with "stealing" spent nuclear fuel rods, which is what we were talking about, is that you can't store these things in your closet. It takes specialized equipment to transport and store these things. Your average theif can't pull it off. Not because of security, but it's just difficult to handle.

I agree unclemick, let private industry come to the rescue.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I wish I COULD time travel. I'd change a vote. And I'd buy a bunch of microsoft stock in 1987.

The point is, we're willing to spend more on an unproductive war that, in my opinion, had more to do with oil and politics than terrorism, than it would cost us to find a way to get away from fossil fuels. We can argue about the war, the oil vs terrorism thing, or the cost of alternative fuel research all day long and not really get anywhere. I've expressed my informed opinion, and you've expressed yours.

With regards to electric cars, we have in fact provided extensive government funding for electric vehicles and battery technology, and plenty of mandates for reduced fuel usage. By administrations of both "flavors". I'm not so sure that private enterprise will ignore cheap and still widely available oil to fund, research and implement replacement solutions before its too late.

Also note that cars like the Prius are being found to much lower gas mileage than advertised and the owners aint happy.

http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=21225877&brk=1

Of course, this is from the lying liars at IBD. The questionable characters at google can refer you to other defective sources. Or you can trust your government to tell you all the truth you need.

I just hope all my friends here dont live in major cities or near high value targets where a bookkeeping error might ruin their day...

 

[COD]

Until recently I worked a couple of blocks from the White House...

The problem with electric cars and all the solar power ideas is that we don't have the battery power to make them work effeceintly. Even the Pruis is driving around with a few hundred pounds of HAzMat on board. (the batteries). Of course, pure electrics just shift the pollution from the cities out to the power plants. If everybody starts plugging their car in at night we will need a lot more power online. Which do you prefer? Coal, Hydro, Nuclear? They all have negative env impacts.


I don't see government fixing the problem. Instead of us wasting a few billion taxpayer dollars on govt programs that won't amount to squat, why not take that money and and offer a reward. Do you thnk GM and Ford would take alternative power seriously if we anted up 500 million taypayer dollars to the first company to produce a car that runs on something other than gasoline, and can be purchased by the average consumer?

It seems to be working for space flight - for a lot less cash from a private source too.

 

[BigMoneyJim]

The problem with "stealing" spent nuclear fuel rods, which is what we were talking about, is that you can't store these things in your closet. It takes specialized equipment to transport and store these things. Your average theif can't pull it off. Not because of security, but it's just difficult to handle.

Nitpick: Add the word "safely" to the end of each sentence and I agree. I'm not sure about the acitivy of spent rods, but I expect if the long term health effects are worth it to you, you could toss a couple into a suitcase and throw them into your closet until you need them. I may be wrong, though; how much radiation does it take to kill a person in minutes, and how much do spent rods have?

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I dont think the rods are particularly worthwhile for weapon usage on a large scale. Some of these other materials ARE though.

That was a meandering point...from nuclear energy through lost fuel rods to terrorist weapons. We're doing well today!

The point that most radiological materials wont kill you right away, coupled with the fact that these folks generally dont care if they die, is a concern. Even modestly contained the more nasty stuff like the cesium and cobalt can be kept "in a closet" for some time.

If you steal a roadside sign full of glow-in-the-dark tritium and smash it up while eating sunflower seeds, as 3 new jersey kids did a few years back, you do die a little while thereafter. I swear, I'm not making this stuff up.

If you wrap yourself in duct tape and plastic wrap you'll probably be ok though...