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10-26-2013, 12:59 PM
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#21
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by martyp
I bailed in 2008-2009 and told myself I would get back in after the next election in 2012 when things calmed down. But after the 2010 and 2012 elections Washington DC look more dysfunctional than ever. It doesn't look like I will be back for quite a while. Hmmmm . . . maybe after the 2020 redistricting.
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I am not certain, but I think you are saying that you have no equity investments at present.
What do you invest in instead?
Ha
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"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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10-26-2013, 01:25 PM
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#22
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 723
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martyp
I bailed in 2008-2009 and told myself I would get back in after the next election in 2012 when things calmed down. But after the 2010 and 2012 elections Washington DC look more dysfunctional than ever. It doesn't look like I will be back for quite a while. Hmmmm . . . maybe after the 2020 redistricting.
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Sounds like you're into the "buy high sell low" approach to investing... ouch! 
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10-26-2013, 02:23 PM
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#23
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
I am not certain, but I think you are saying that you have no equity investments at present.
What do you invest in instead?
Ha
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Frumpstiggle, of course. Don't you have a position?
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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10-26-2013, 02:57 PM
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#24
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,498
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Exuberant yet?
Exuberant yet? Who, me?  Exuberance during times when my net worth reaches new all time highs several times each week, and the markets keep surging on to higher and higher peaks for no reason and with no end in sight?
Wheeee!!!!  I love it and I am totally, TOTALLY exuberant. Hang on, this roller coaster ride is really getting to be so much fun lately.
While this ever surging market may affect my discretionary spending a little (Wheee!!! bought another video game just last night, let the good times roll), it doesn't affect my asset allocation because it just doesn't. That isn't the way I invest. I rejoice when we experience a booming market, just as much as I am concerned when the markets crash. But either way, I don't act on it.
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Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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10-26-2013, 03:15 PM
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#25
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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10-26-2013, 03:20 PM
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#26
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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I hate it when W2R whees in public...
__________________
Numbers is hard
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10-26-2013, 03:36 PM
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#27
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,697
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Uh-oh...
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In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
― Rudiger Dornbusch
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10-26-2013, 03:53 PM
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#28
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Eh. Frankly we seem to be overdue for a correction. No biggie.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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10-26-2013, 03:59 PM
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#29
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 1,669
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Eh. Frankly we seem to be overdue for a correction. No biggie.
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Folks have been re-balancing out of equities, right? Right?
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10-26-2013, 04:06 PM
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#30
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jebmke
Folks have been re-balancing out of equities, right? Right?
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I'll have to forward your question to the folks who manage my Wellesley and Wellington funds...
__________________
Numbers is hard
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10-26-2013, 04:35 PM
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#31
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 25,339
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That's it. I'm selling everything and stuffing it in the mattress.
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When I was a kid I wanted to be older. This is not what I expected.
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10-26-2013, 04:37 PM
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#32
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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You never know. Gas prices are coming down and I didn't buy into oil this time around....
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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10-26-2013, 04:44 PM
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#33
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jebmke
Folks have been re-balancing out of equities, right? Right?
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I have been rebalancing and deconcentrating, but I think the vast majority of the retail rubes have yet to jump into the equity pool.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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10-26-2013, 04:45 PM
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#34
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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__________________
Numbers is hard
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10-26-2013, 06:33 PM
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#35
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,809
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
I have been rebalancing and deconcentrating, but I think the vast majority of the retail rubes have yet to jump into the equity pool.
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But is the pool of money from retail buyers enough to push things higher? I don't have any figures on this sort of thing.
My gut feeling is that we are OK through at least January. Many will look at the missed opportunities in 2013 and push more money over into equities. But again, is that really enough to pump the market up? Maybe so baring major shocks like geopolitical ones or major trading partners getting is trouble.
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10-26-2013, 09:19 PM
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#36
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal
But is the pool of money from retail buyers enough to push things higher? I don't have any figures on this sort of thing.
My gut feeling is that we are OK through at least January. Many will look at the missed opportunities in 2013 and push more money over into equities. But again, is that really enough to pump the market up? Maybe so baring major shocks like geopolitical ones or major trading partners getting is trouble.
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I think we rally through the end of the year, in the usual stop and go fashion. After that, who knows? Europe is coming out of recession, China seems to be muddling through. If the politicians can stop squabbling maybe we will even see some real growth. I have been using the rally to diversify and tweak my allocations so that my risk profile is more appropriate to an ESR.
Tomorrow I am going deer hunting. I kind of doubt I will be bagging a deer and don't really care if I don't get one. I will be out in the woods in nice weather with the cell phone shut off and nobody to bother me.
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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10-28-2013, 11:08 AM
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#37
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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If we agree that the market goes up more often than it does going down, then should investors not be happy more often than not?
I think exuberance is OK. It's irrational exuberance that one should fear. Greenspan first coined this phrase in 1996 in a speech.
[...] Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? [...]
See: FRB: Speech, Greenspan -- Central banking in a democratic society -- December 5, 1996 So, are we experiencing another bout of irrational exuberance? Same as some earlier posters, I do not think so. One will note that the above Greenspan's speech was in 1996, and the market did not implode until mid 2000, although the current economic condition is different than the dotcom era.
I think the market rise will continue for a while, though this thinking will not make me go any higher than 70-75% in stock allocation. But as I believe that the world economy is recovering, I will look for some markets outside the US.
And talking about Greenspan, as I got curious about what he was up to, I searched the Web, and found that he had recently expressed concerns that the QE had been going on for so long, and it had raised the risk that it was not going to end well.
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10-28-2013, 02:46 PM
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#38
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 482
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Reporting back from the wine tasting party I went to Saturday night, not one mention of stocks or investing. Maybe everyone was too interested in wine, food, and football on TV. The office seems quiet too. Will report back in a few weeks.
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Retire date Jan. 10, 2018
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10-28-2013, 03:24 PM
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#39
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Moderator
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: San Diego
Posts: 14,211
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At my office too many of the folks pulled out of the market at the beginning of the gov'ment shut down... Now they're regretting it.
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10-28-2013, 03:55 PM
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#40
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,809
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I checked the data of mutual fund flows and updated my graph through Aug 2013. You can see people pulling out of bonds and some modest upticks in equity flows, particularly international equity.
I'm guessing this stuff is a lagging indicator although you can see declines in 2007 well before the poor 2008.
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