FA After One Year - 2019 Update

So in that regard, how would you respond if the FA says that the funds chosen were defensive and that while I did not do better than a hypothetical portfolio, I would have lost less if the market did indeed turn negative? I ask it this way because we have made it clear to the FA that we are more adverse to losing money than leaving some on the table.
I think you've given him the building blocks to excuse any underperformance.

What is the benchmark on your monthly report? When you respond with that, it is more difficult for him to wiggle out.

If you take the 2019 performance of VGSTX Vanguard STAR (22.21), subtract the 1% and add'l weighted average expense ratio of your funds, that's what you'll get, is my first wild guess.

The switch of AA makes it more challenging to capture results. That works in his favor also, as an explanation of what happened.
 
... So in that regard, how would you respond if the FA says that the funds chosen were defensive and that while I did not do better than a hypothetical portfolio, I would have lost less if the market did indeed turn negative? I ask it this way because we have made it clear to the FA that we are more adverse to losing money than leaving some on the table.
That is a very common claim from FAs after they have admitted that they cannot beat the market. AFIK there is no statistical or research evidence that it is true in any general sense. I have not seen it to be true in portfolios that I have tracked.

Presumably he is not claiming to be able to market time, just to have picked defensive segment funds. The easy way to check the claim is to look at 4Q18 or just December '18 performance of his portfolio vs your pro forma. Remember to include dividends for his portfolio so you have total return; I think Portfolio Visualizer already is giving total return for the pro forma.

Remember, too, that underperformance is not just driven by expense ratios and FA fees. Stock picker funds have high turnover, even 200% or more, so they have transaction costs, and they are moving large enough blocks that market prices are affected. Immediately after their traders start to work, the prices of the stock they are buying or selling start to move against them. This is effectively an expense for the fund. William Sharpe explains effect of active managers' costs here: https://web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/art/active/active.htm For a little more about this market issue, read Flash Boys by Michael Lewis.
 
Thanks for the update Jerry1. Just catching up.

Originally Posted by Jerry1 View Post

So in that regard, how would you respond if the FA says that the funds chosen were defensive and that while I did not do better than a hypothetical portfolio, I would have lost less if the market did indeed turn negative? I ask it this way because we have made it clear to the FA that we are more adverse to losing money than leaving some on the table.
I wouldn't even bother asking the question. Aversion to losses should be handled with asset allocation, not trying to choose "defensive" stocks.

You have to remember - his goal is making money for himself, not you.

Agree with mrfeh - I don't think you will get any useful info going down this path.

I'm having trouble buying the 'defensive position' from a couple angles. One, he was OK with you directing him to switch from 40/60 to 60/40 (in an up market)? What happened to 'defensive'? I'm also scratching my head a little bit on that one anyhow - you are paying him, but then making these choices as well? Shouldn't he be telling you?

I took a rough stab at that portfolio visualizer, running 40/60 (VTI/BND) through August, and then 60/40 to year end, stacking the results (re-starting in Sept @ 60/40with the Aug 40/60 end values) and got 19.87% against your 13.67%. So on a mil, you could be more than $50K down. So a defensive position would be going in with a big strike against it. This is a point I try to make when people react to a 50% drop in stocks. Sure bonds likely won't drop like that, but they don't rise to such high levels to drop from either. You need to look at the long game.

I have not seen the evidence that defensive picks will out-perform an AA of broad index funds chosen to limit volatility. Over the long run, the indexed AA mostly manages to stay ahead with less volatility than someone's 'picks'.

As far as the Roth conversions and other plans, I'll read in some more detail, but offhand, it seems to be pretty much what has been discussed and demonstrated here (for free).

-ERD50
 
I read thru this thread. I think the reason you have a FA is psychological. More below.

I have numerous friends who had FAs during the GFC. Not one has ever said they felt the FA protected them against losses. Not one.

The notion that your FA is worth the money they save you from mistakes is a selling point relying on psychology. It’s also how I sold in my previous career. “It’s not about price, it’s about value. “. This is a way to get the buyer off the subject of what a reasonable fee for service is. It’s complete BS. there is no reason why you cannot find someone and pay by the hour. Fewer FAs do it this way because they make less money. But they are out there. For someone worth doing this with, expect the rate to be several hundred dollars per hour and your initial set up may cost 5k. Then more as you go forward but less over time. You are actually a bit lucky that your overall AUM sound like they are around 1m plus or minus. The AUM fees really get crazy high in relation to service provided when you are multiple 7 figures or 8 figures.

Why is this psychological? What they are leveraging is your underlying desire to not be the one responsible for your losses if things go south investment wise. But what you are forgetting is heads or tails they still win. They are still your losses. And you pay and deal with it. not them. Always.

Reading this thread I am confident you have the knowledge and skills to DIY; the reasons you don’t are in your head.

Your cost for this psycho benefit are the aum fees PLUS the higher expense ratios PLUS any fund under performance.

Are these costs worth it for the emotional benefit?

Think about this.

(Note. This is not a flogging, but an honest attempt to get you to self reflect on why you are using an AUM FA. )

As for my friends I mentioned above. I don’t try to talk them out of using their FA. WHY? Because I don’t want to have my own psychological risk of being felt responsible for their losses. And we are actually friends. Not anonymous internet chat buddies.

So my own behavior is also driven by the psychology involved!

Most psychologists charge by the hour. Since that is essentially the role of your FA why are you not paying by the hour if you need a psychologist?
 
I would say that you got your money's worth the first year. Just the change in AA, I estimate, made you perhaps $24K. However, year after year I think the value would not be there. On $1 million, if you had a WR of 4% ($40,000), you would be paying the FA a quarter of it. I support your plan to quit after another year.
 
I think the comment above about psycholgical reasons is accurate. We are all driven by that, of course, no matter what we do.

The actual workings of accounts and assets is something you come to understand by dipping your toe, then your leg, and jumping in. And there are other considerations, like "what does he/she do when I'm not here."

After 2 years of therapy, OP will be 101% ready to jump in.
 
Trying an FA out for a year or two has long term repercussions, besides the 1% fee they charge. As already discussed, you lost out a good bit compared to how the market did. That's future compounding you'll never get back.

Other problem is what funds does the FA have you in? Most likely high ER funds. So when you drop the FA you will want to sell those funds in order to get back into low cost index funds. You will be paying capital gains which is more money that could be compounding, which you will never get back.

I also wonder how much the FA churned the funds in your account to make him money, while costing you capital gains. Then there is the whole part about any funds he had you in probably paying out capital gains, which you will be paying taxes on.
 
OP said in his original thread that the FA was a fiduciary. Is it just me or is an FA that works on a percentage of AUM counter to what a fiduciary should be? Is the FA really doing any more work on your $1M portfolio compared to say a $500K portfolio?
 
Trying an FA out for a year or two has long term repercussions, besides the 1% fee they charge. As already discussed, you lost out a good bit compared to how the market did. That's future compounding you'll never get back.

Other problem is what funds does the FA have you in? Most likely high ER funds. So when you drop the FA you will want to sell those funds in order to get back into low cost index funds. You will be paying capital gains which is more money that could be compounding, which you will never get back.

I also wonder how much the FA churned the funds in your account to make him money, while costing you capital gains. Then there is the whole part about any funds he had you in probably paying out capital gains, which you will be paying taxes on.

Good points, but no churning and the funds are lower cost funds. He doesn't make anything on the funds except his AUM so churning and selecting high cost funds is not a financial incentive for him. Also, not worried about the capital gains because almost all of the portfolio is IRA. The initial loss in growth is real. That one hurts for sure.
 
Good points, but no churning and the funds are lower cost funds. He doesn't make anything on the funds except his AUM so churning and selecting high cost funds is not a financial incentive for him. Also, not worried about the capital gains because almost all of the portfolio is IRA. The initial loss in growth is real. That one hurts for sure.


That's good. I guess he is a fiduciary in those aspects. I wish you the best going forward.
 
These threads always seem to drift towards FA bashing. Greed, high ER funds, etc. I would submit that most FAs are concerned with making money but that they understand that doing a good job is the best way to get referrals and consequently the best way to increase income over the long term. Most IMO are not bad people.

As it happens I have spent the last hour or so analyzing a portfolio (of a nonprofit, prepping for a lunch meeting) from such an FA, looking at the past 7 quarters. The portfolio is 62% domestic, 38% international. Here is some of the analysis:

Overall, the portfolio has underrun the S&P 500 by 2 or 3%. This is to be expected because the US market has outperformed the international market lately. Sectors come into fashion and go out of fashion, so this does not reflect badly on the portfolio. The portfolio is tracking about 2% under the ACWI net of fees. IMO this is not bad at all. Probably the best that could be achieved is 1.5% considering the AUM and ER costs.

If I separate the portfolio (17 funds, ~$1.4M) into passive and active funds it is about 50/50. Dollar-weighted fees on the passive tranche are 15bps and on the active tranche 67bps. Surprisingly to me, there is not much performance difference between the two tranches. Long term I expect the active tranche to have worse performance, though.

So IMO his performance is very satisfactory. My only negative comment is that the portfolio is too complicated, but that is IMO an automatic defensive move to make investing look more complicated than it is. Anyway, it's harmless except to the extent that my analysis spreadsheet is a bit more work.

The "underperformance" number being kicked around here is 2% net of fees of $1M I think. IMO that is not abysmal performance. 1% underrun net of fees is probably about the best that could be expected.

So ... for our own money we don't use FAs, so we capture most of the baked-in FA underrun. But for others the question is simply: Is the FA worth the baked-in underrun or not? The OP thinks not. Others' mileage may vary.
 
I am a bit of an agnostic as to the posibilities of a FA contributing something. I tend to favor self managed index funds.I was the treasurer of a fraternal group which REQUIRED that we have a FA, I inherited a portfolio of mostly American Funds, the only front load funds that seem to work out. Over 12 years the protfolio did well. Then I kept a sharp eye on the FA MIL used (family didn't want any one of us to manage the portfolio. Mostly stock selection and a higher % stock (70% to 75% equity) but over 10 years he beat the S&P500 net of fees and there are such a thing as defensive stocks. Only misstep was some Leahman bonds which caught a lot of people.
So it can be done but nobody really beat the return and simplicity of something like Vanguard.
 
Is the FA worth the baked-in underrun or not? The OP thinks not. Others' mileage may vary.

I think my underrun is more than the 2% or so. I talked to the FA today in preparation for a meeting in a couple weeks and let him know I wasn't happy and that I wanted to hear his take on the performance for the year. I didn't go into the detail we have here, but with the S&P making over 30%, it's hard to believe I shouldn't have done better than 13.67% Wellesley returned over 16% and it's at 33/67. Portfolio visualizer came up with a 25/75 portfolio to get down to the level of my return. I was never below 40/60 so there's some splainin' to do. I'm very much open to hearing him out. I like him, but as you framed it, I don't like him more than the baked-in underrun. I knew I bought into that. I didn't buy into substandard performance. If I could have earned closer to 19%, that's closer to $50K on top of the $10K fee. That's just too much. Even a couple percent over the fee (say 2% or $20K) is not something I can live with. I'll just go to a 3 to 4 fund portfolio and bid him adieu. In the mean time, I'll also be gleaning as much knowledge from him in 2020 as possible.
 
I like my FA a lot too. In fact he's one of the nicest guys I've ever known. But like many of them, he's also pretty expensive. Charges me 100% of my WR every year. But I like the way he smiles at me in the mirror every morning, so I guess I'll keep using him.
 
I think my underrun is more than the 2% or so. I talked to the FA today in preparation for a meeting in a couple weeks and let him know I wasn't happy and that I wanted to hear his take on the performance for the year. I didn't go into the detail we have here, but with the S&P making over 30%, it's hard to believe I shouldn't have done better than 13.67% Wellesley returned over 16% and it's at 33/67. Portfolio visualizer came up with a 25/75 portfolio to get down to the level of my return. I was never below 40/60 so there's some splainin' to do. I'm very much open to hearing him out. I like him, but as you framed it, I don't like him more than the baked-in underrun. I knew I bought into that. I didn't buy into substandard performance. If I could have earned closer to 19%, that's closer to $50K on top of the $10K fee. That's just too much. Even a couple percent over the fee (say 2% or $20K) is not something I can live with. I'll just go to a 3 to 4 fund portfolio and bid him adieu. In the mean time, I'll also be gleaning as much knowledge from him in 2020 as possible.
Yeah. All of that points to the problem that the way these FAs report, showing only a blended equity and fixed result, it is really impossible for clients to determine equity performance and compare it with anything.

Re baked in, I count that as follows: FA fee + mutual fund expense ratio + trading cost (hidden from view) + market effects of fund purchases and sales (also hidden from view). From various readings I would ballpark the total to be at least 3%. But that baked-in amount doesn't include the total return performance of the selected funds themselves. On occasion there are funds with alpha enough to overcome the 3%+/- but more often than not, they fail. So probably your FA's selections underperformed on total return gross of fees.

You might try asking the FA to calculate the total return of the equity tranche only, ideally by calendar quarters. This probably would have to be done by some support troop in Excel, but I don't think it is an unreasonable request. With your short tenure it shouldn't be a big job. XIRR function IIRC.
 
Yeah. All of that points to the problem that the way these FAs report, showing only a blended equity and fixed result, it is really impossible for clients to determine equity performance and compare it with anything. ... .
I doubt that most clients would even question it, or know how to evaluate it if they did. They just say "He's nice, and I'm making money, and I wouldn't know how to do all this complex stuff, oh my!".

My only negative comment is that the portfolio is too complicated, but that is IMO an automatic defensive move to make investing look more complicated than it is. Anyway, it's harmless except to the extent that my analysis spreadsheet is a bit more work.
Yes, they put up this "smoke and mirrors" to perpetuate the idea that it's too hard and complicated to DIY. It would be easier to measure their performance if it was a couple funds, so this helps discourage someone who might consider it.

-ERD50
 
Yes, they put up this "smoke and mirrors" to perpetuate the idea that it's too hard and complicated to DIY. It would be easier to measure their performance if it was a couple funds, so this helps discourage someone who might consider it.
-ERD50

That pretty much sums up investment advisors.
 
I found this discussion enlightening. I don’t use a FA, but have been getting repeated calls for a free evaluation and financial planning with an advisor from Fido. The calls started almost to the day when the Fido accounts passed $1M. DW would never let me use a fee paid FA nor am I interested in one. But I will meet with Fido sometime, as a learning experience.

Like most here, we got to where we are without a FA, and tracking my spreadsheet performance over the last 12 years shows I did quite well enough, but definitely underperformed the indexes CUMULATIVELY over that 12 year period, typically by 2-4%. Since there were years I trounced it, there obviously WERE years I lacked. But I know what I did, and learned, and each year my performance improved.

Compared to peers that I have discussed this with, I have outperformed them, because in general, they are both afraid to make moves, and definitely lack any confidence in their ability or perhaps have a total lack of interest in learning or accepting any responsibility. As has been mentioned, most people are way more loss adverse than underperformance adverse. I am more accepting of my mistakes (or miscues) than I would be of paying someone to underperform. Half the time, I can’t follow some of the discussions here, so I am definitely no finance expert, but as mentioned, most of it is not rocket science.

Yet I know 3 peers with similar sized portfolios that use FAs, and all are fairly uninformed and uninterested in following market performance. They would rather pay someone that “knows what they are doing”. One told me he told his “guy” that as long as he made 5% each year, he would be happy, and so far, so good. Yikes! Another had set them up in some bizarre individual stock selections in 2013, hadn’t done anything at all besides collect their fee for years and actually lost money in 2017, and was doing so bad in early 2018, they finally asked me what I would do. So they let them go and put everything in index funds on my advice. And were shocked that their “guy” didn’t even ask why or try to explain anything.

In the community I live in, there are a lot of wealthy widows and divorcees. They all love to talk about their money managers and how they ask them to help them buy a car, fund a grandkids college, take $30k vacations etc. It is almost a measure of success that they don’t have to dirty their hands doing “money stuff” and as long as they have plenty, when they want it, performance is irrelevant.

There are PLENTY of people that want hand holding, and I really think the fees are geared towards that segment. So even if you are investing savvy, you’re going to pay the same as if you aren’t.

About 8 years ago, DWs father passed away and left equal relatively small amounts to 5 siblings, (like $12k) as inherited IRAs with Morgan Stanley. MS had liquidated the holdings, and they each got the IRA as a cash MM making about 1%. To date, 8 years later, one of them still has it left the same account with MS, still in a MM. & sees the RMDs as free money to spend on vacations, “until the money runs out”!!. The amount is roughly 3/4’s the amount it was when they got it. One cashed it in, and being under 59.5, paid the penalties and taxes and blew it. In her mind, it was free money too, and they basically bought a used car with it, which is now long gone. I moved DWs to Fido, where I put it in an equity index fund. She told her siblings (that asked her) that still had any left about its performance, and they said they would do the same thing. One did move it to Fido, in to a bond fund, and is satisfied. Another one planned on doing it, but MS told them it would be “easier” to just keep it with MS and put it in a “stock fund” so they did. We don’t know what it’s in, but DW mentioned that her sisters RMD was way less then what she just got.

I think any of them should have/would have benefited from ANY FA practically, simply because they all either can’t handle finances through either inaction or laziness, or mental incomprehension that money is fungible.

DW would have no idea what to do. DW is more risk adverse now and also “fungible comprehension limited”, so once I retired I converted her IRA to bond funds as part of our AA.
 
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One cashed it in, and being under 59.5, paid the penalties and taxes and blew it.
There are no penalties for cashing in an inherited IRA. Yes, there can be taxes.
 
Good points, but no churning and the funds are lower cost funds. He doesn't make anything on the funds except his AUM so churning and selecting high cost funds is not a financial incentive for him. Also, not worried about the capital gains because almost all of the portfolio is IRA. The initial loss in growth is real. That one hurts for sure.

I have one of my IRA's invested mostly in Vanguard's Wellington fund. That IRA did not perform very well last year. I'm ok with that because the point of the investments in this account was to dampen losses on the downside as well as pick up some or most of the upside. The upside last year was mostly in the high flyer tech stocks. My hope is to outperform in this account when those stocks take a tumble. Taking the long view and all that.
 
I benchmark my guy against the S&P 500 and he always comes out well including fees. If he had turned in your guys performance I would have fired him.
 
I think my underrun is more than the 2% or so. I talked to the FA today in preparation for a meeting in a couple weeks and let him know I wasn't happy and that I wanted to hear his take on the performance for the year. I didn't go into the detail we have here, but with the S&P making over 30%, it's hard to believe I shouldn't have done better than 13.67% Wellesley returned over 16% and it's at 33/67. Portfolio visualizer came up with a 25/75 portfolio to get down to the level of my return. I was never below 40/60 so there's some splainin' to do. I'm very much open to hearing him out. I like him, but as you framed it, I don't like him more than the baked-in underrun. I knew I bought into that. I didn't buy into substandard performance. If I could have earned closer to 19%, that's closer to $50K on top of the $10K fee. That's just too much. Even a couple percent over the fee (say 2% or $20K) is not something I can live with. I'll just go to a 3 to 4 fund portfolio and bid him adieu. In the mean time, I'll also be gleaning as much knowledge from him in 2020 as possible.

Jerry1 - to me, the above sounds different from your reasons you gave for going to an FA in that other thread, over a year ago. In that thread (full quote below), you said "The FA doesn’t have to do better than the market, he just has to do better than me."

But now it seems you are using the market as a benchmark?

And during 2019, you decided to go from 40/60 to 60/40, but back then you said "You don’t know how bad I want to jump out of the market right now." And the market is up ~ 26% from then, and up ~ 11% back in August when you went 60/40. But you are not jumping.

It appears to me (and maybe I'm wrong), that after another year of exposure to this forum, and a few pullbacks (and recoveries) in the market along the way, the idea that the volatility of a reasonable AA is just something to be accepted, and can be expected to work out just fine in the long run. No need to try to second guess it. Just let it be.

Have you achieved enlightenment? :)

OTOH, if the next downturn is another scary 50% drop in equities, are you going to be over-reacting, and would an FA make any difference (after all, it was you who told him to go from 40/60 to 60/40)?

I get the sense you have overcome your fears and desire to tweak the portfolio. What do you think?

-ERD50

From 11-15-2018:
This is one of the points that keeps hitting home to me. The FA doesn’t have to do better than the market, he just has to do better than me. Now, I understand that I can match the market on my own through low cost index funds, but that assumes that I will actually do that. I’m sure every alcoholic thinks they’re never going to have another drink, but then something happens and they fall off the wagon. I’ve never been one to hold firm. You don’t know how bad I want to jump out of the market right now.

I need to lose weight. Stop eating and exercise. No personal trainer necessary.

I need to stop drinking. Don’t buy beer. No 12 steps needed.

I need to stop smoking. Don’t light up. No nicotine patch needed.

I need to make better use of my time. Get off the couch and do something. No organizational coach needed.

Sometimes you need help. For those of you who don’t, I commend and admire you. For me, with a FA, I’m trying to see if he can help. A friend of mine at work used to call me itchy and scratchy because I was moving money around in my 401K so often. DW would put all her money in CD’s if it weren’t for her realization of inflation. Even then she’d still feel like “at least I didn’t lose money”. Like all programs, if I follow it and learn from it then it could be money well spent. We’ll see. I am going to give him a minimum of one year. I sincerely appreciate the discussion as it gives me a lot to think about and different ways to analyze this. You guys are one of the twelve steps. Thank you.
 
I benchmark my guy against the S&P 500 and he always comes out well including fees. If he had turned in your guys performance I would have fired him.

In that other thread, I saw that you said:

That's how I came up with my guy, gave a chance to 4 other guys and compared results.

No results = no more job.

So I'm wondering, how much did you lose with those 4 before finding the current guy? They don't give refunds, do they? (j/k)

-ERD50
 
ERD50,
No, I haven’t changed that much, I’m still itchy and scratchy. There were times throughout the year that I wanted to take profits and go very conservative and there were other times I wanted to go all in. I do find I have a bit more self control no that I’m not making earned income and the governor of having to discuss any changes with someone else is probably still a good thing. If nothing else, I have to give reasons for what I’m suggestion to someone who can at least challenge me, if not override me.

You also point out a very important event that could tell a lot - what would I do in a significant correction. I do feel more comfortable today that I would not panic. I’ve given a lot of thought to that and I believe I have a good AA to ride out a storm. But, it hasn’t happened yet so there’s no way to be sure.

To your other point. I still believe the FA just has to do better than me, but there’s no way to back test what “me” would have done. So using the market is about the only benchmark I have. In doing so, his performance looks about as good as if I would have bought a two fund portfolio at a 25/75 AA. I think I could have done better than that and we will be discussing that at my meeting early March. Given that I was never under 40/60, I really want to hear his response/excuse. I’ll give him a chance but I’m not happy with the performance and I do feel that he did better than I could have.
 
ERD50,
No, I haven’t changed that much, I’m still itchy and scratchy. There were times throughout the year that I wanted to take profits and go very conservative and there were other times I wanted to go all in. I do find I have a bit more self control no that I’m not making earned income and the governor of having to discuss any changes with someone else is probably still a good thing. If nothing else, I have to give reasons for what I’m suggestion to someone who can at least challenge me, if not override me.

You also point out a very important event that could tell a lot - what would I do in a significant correction. I do feel more comfortable today that I would not panic. I’ve given a lot of thought to that and I believe I have a good AA to ride out a storm. But, it hasn’t happened yet so there’s no way to be sure.

To your other point. I still believe the FA just has to do better than me, but there’s no way to back test what “me” would have done. So using the market is about the only benchmark I have. In doing so, his performance looks about as good as if I would have bought a two fund portfolio at a 25/75 AA. I think I could have done better than that and we will be discussing that at my meeting early March. Given that I was never under 40/60, I really want to hear his response/excuse. I’ll give him a chance but I’m not happy with the performance and I do feel that he did better than I could have.

I would question the wisdom of putting too much emphasis on grading your FA's performance in terms of portfolio returns. That would seem to assume a FA should be able to outsmart the market in the long term, and or that future performance of an advisor is predicted by past performance. IMO, these assumptions have been debunked conclusively, and the real added value you get from your FA are from things you have mentioned such as advice on asset allocation, budgeting, planning. So my suggestion would be to base your decision on how long to remain with your FA on those things, rather than portfolio performance.

I recognize that many do not agree that a FA or active funds cannot outperform. If you are in this category, then yes I stipulate it is legitimate to base your decision on performance, and I certainly do not want to debate that belief or question the reasonableness of having that belief which is different than mine.
 
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