My point to rayvt was that since it is unprecedented for benefits for retirees or those near retirement to change that his concern about the deal being changed wasn't really relevant to the decision on claiming strategies.
What happened in the past is interesting, but what is important is what will happen in the future. When you see cracks in the dam face, you can't say, "Well this dam has never collapsed in the past, so we don't need to worry now."
When the SSA warns that things are in danger, it is rather silly to insist that nothing will ever change.
Trustees Report Summary
"Neither Medicare nor Social Security can sustain projected long-run program costs in full under currently scheduled financing, and legislative changes are necessary to avoid disruptive consequence."
"Social Security’s Disability Insurance (DI) program ... faces the most immediate financing shortfall ... Lawmakers need to act soon to avoid
automatic reductions in payments to DI beneficiaries in late 2016" True, we are talking about OASI and not DI, but the point remains, that a benefit is in risk.
"the Trustees estimate that Social Security cost will exceed non-interest income throughout the 75-year projection period."
"The OASI Trust Fund has a projected reserve depletion date of 2034.
After the depletion of reserves, continuing tax income would be sufficient to pay
77 percent of scheduled benefits in 2033."
There you have it. SSA warns that without changes the benefits will be cut by 23% in 18 years. So there is a definite risk, and that risk needs to be taken into account.
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One way or another, something is going to change. Either the SSA's inflow has got to rise or the outflow has to drop.
It strikes me that an easy argument to be made is "Warren Buffett & Bill Gates have oodles of money, so they don't need SS." Boom, means test. Regardless of your own politics, you could write the TV soundbites.
Not income test , means test. The more money you have, the more likely it will be that your SS benefit will be reduced. Ma & Pa living on their SS check won't be affected. Financially independent early retired people are a different category.