Falling home prices

[Harriet]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SoonToRetire Hi, Harriet, thanks for coming on and giving us your source data. It really is surprising, but you're right, that one home did indeed sell for 450k less than two years ago and is now being offered for about 130k, Now, I'm no real estate expert, but I know Northern Virginia and even the bad parts of Manassas are not slums like you find in the District. And this is a 4BR 2.5 bath home. It was certainly bubble priced at 450k, but at 130k it's a downright steal. Someone mentioned an hour + commute, yes, probably, but we're talking 130k, you can take a Hummer with a chauffer into town every day and still make out. Or how about a retiree who wants to be an hour away from DC and pay peanuts for a pretty large home? Something just doesn't sound right. I note there is a caution about not even being able to show it without signing a mold waiver, maybe it has a severe mold problems. Or maybe housing is undershooting as much as it overshot. As someone else said, you go low enough and you get under construction costs or land values. Since it's your blog, what do you think is going on? Danm: It's a bit immature to compare today's housing situation with the great depression. But even if house prices were to drop 90% top to through, this is fundamentally different than stocks dropping that much. For speculators, yes. For the average person, no. People need homes to live in, whether they buy or rent. If everyone's house was instantly worth 10% of what they paid for it, there would be no difference in day to day living. And when a house needed to be sold at a bargain price, another one could be bought at a similar bargain price. If anything, this would provide a real stimulus to first time buyers and to the economy as a whole. Exept for speculators, or those who were using their homes as a piggy bank.

SoonToRetire,

When I first started the blog in March of 2007, my purpose was to track events in NoVA as they unfolded. Last Spring, we were seeing extremes of 20% losses on same-house sales. Throughout the year, they got worse, and in one of the worst-hit counties (Prince William) prices went from 20-30-40-50% off prior sale prices.

There's a ton of land in Prince William County and a lot of overbuilding. But fundamentally what we are seeing is no different from the rest of the bubble areas in the country (which is just about all of it).

A $130K mortgage is small, but it's nothing to sneeze at. With a 7% interest rate it would take an income of $45K to support that. That's more than two jobs at Starbucks, if you will. Not everyone can snag a high-paying job in D.C. Prince William County has an enormous immigrant population - non English-speaking folks who just don't make a ton of cash. They're the ones who were first out, and the downward spiral continues for all.

Consumer debt is also very high among the Gen-X middle class. People bit off more than they could chew in other areas. If you've got $50K of credit card debt, you can't afford much of a house. A huge psychology change took place that your credit cards were your cushion against job loss. It just doesn't work that way.

I could go on and on, but most of what I'm saying is mentioned in the national financial news. There was too much money being lent out there (liquidity) that Americans (and those from other nations) are having difficulty repaying.

[honobob]

Harriet
You list same house sales but you're only showing a prior sales price and a listing price. Surely in you extensive 9 month research you have an actual matched resale. Could you share?

[danm]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Purron So, based upon your two years of research, what are you planning to do about this in regards to your own personal situation? Do you own any property yourself? If so, do you plan to sell? If you rent, do you plan to buy at any particular point in time?

Hi Purron,
I sold my house in summer 2005, about one month after the local peak. Actually prices had leveled off the previous spring, but few realized it. We had four bidders, I dropped the 'fair value' of my house by 10K to make it move, but the price promptly was bid up above my estimation of comps value - my fingers were crossed during the entire short escrow! I've been renting since. The old house is about 20% off since then, I expect it to go to at least 30%, but probably will go to 50%.
There is data going back 400 years to Amsterdam. Houses appreciate about .1%-.3%/year above inflation. They also track income/rents (rent is equivalent to income) very closely - no surprise. If you want the hard data read up on what Shiller at Yale has to say, or pay for Gary Shilling's private research (available from his web site). His newsletter - 40 pages stuffed with research is a wonderful resource. He predicted this credit crisis to the letter - two years ago. Wish I had bought into some of his investments leading up to it - 600% gain on the crashing ABX index. At any rate I'll buy a house again, when it costs as much to buy as to rent.
Few people still appreciate how extraordinary this credit bubble is. The world has never really had anything like this before, it's rather beautiful in a terrifying sort of way.
If you don't want to pay for research here is a really good piece, including the earlier letters.

http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/HIM2007Q4NP.pdf

[DJRR]

Interesting site. I also live in NOVA for 30 years and follow the market pretty closely. I knew PW County was getting hammered (about 17 mo supply of inventory), but that is huge.

1st house - "Must sign mold disclosure" I would guess that the owners moved out when they got the foreclosure notice and before the bank finally got possession a water leak led to mold. I would be suprised if it ends up ever selling - probably be demolished for the lot.

2nd house - "special addendums required" Wonder what wrong with that one.

These areas were brutalized by mortgage brokers giving no doc loans to immigrants who did not understand the process. Sad, but they are paying the price. These parts of Mannasas and Woodbridge are what passes for low income here and were truly in a bubble.

Even where I live in Fairfax there are now some neighborhood homes for sale under $400k. These are all bank owned and mostly bought to "flip" by investors. They are generally in the worst locations, etc. I would guess my house has fallen about 10-15% from the peak in 2005, but is still about 50% higher than my purchase price in 2003 with sales taking about 6-8 months.

[danm]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SoonToRetire Danm: It's a bit immature to compare today's housing situation with the great depression. But even if house prices were to drop 90% top to through, this is fundamentally different than stocks dropping that much.

Immature? Odd statement. But you misunderstand, I wasn't comparing it to the GD - but was correcting CFB's err - he said house prices never have dropped below construction value, which they have.

Damn - they're doing it right now in Michigan, with all the auto industry troubles. You'd be hard pressed to build a new house for 30k, what many houses are selling for in Michigan.

Further - you are absolutely correct this IS different from stocks dropping in value, about 70% of Americans bought their houses, whereas stock ownership is skewed to the top, and less than 50% own any stocks at all. The effects of prices dropping are much more broad based, the dot.com bust doesn't compare.

The economy is 70% consumer based, and was funded by home equity withdrawal the last 7 years. Consumers have increased spending, over income, steadily by 1-2%/year for the last 25. Incomes have been down since 2000 due to global wage arbritrage (one reason corp profits got so high), and so they have spent the house equity to make up the difference. I have a study of what funds consumers, in aggregate, have left to spend, and the only thing left is pension type money, which is hard or impossible to raid.

The 'everybody has to live in a house' argument is way past it's expiration date. The US has a huge surplus of housing, both buy and rental, there is no shortage of places to live. Besides which economic and investing events are driven by the margin, not those folks who sit it out, and didn't speculate or take out HEW.

Another wonderful, free resource on housing related matters is

Calculated Risk

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by danm The economy is 70% consumer based, and was funded by home equity withdrawal the last 7 years. Consumers have increased spending, over income, steadily by 1-2%/year for the last 25. Incomes have been down since 2000 due to global wage arbritrage (one reason corp profits got so high), and so they have spent the house equity to make up the difference. I have a study of what funds consumers, in aggregate, have left to spend, and the only thing left is pension type money, which is hard or impossible to raid.

This is absolutely correct. I had a drink with a woman nearing normal retirement age. She lives in a nice house in an expensive neighborhood which she and her husband bought many years ago when it was cheaper by at least 20 x. She wound up with the house in her divorce. She was saying how bad she felt that she would have to leave the neighborhood when she quits work. I asked if the taxes and upkeep were too high: she said no, I have refinanced many times and I can't afford the payments without a job.

I have known her for years- the re-financing wasn't for home repairs or even for luxuries. It was to keep up a semblance of the life she was accustomed to as an upper-middle class married woman.

I have to think that she is not alone, and that this source of cash drying up is going to make a big difference to the economy. The only thing that could possibly put it off would be to somehow re-blow the bubble.

Ha

[danm]

The whole thing is tragic. My sister and BIL bought before the peak, then proceeded to pour everything into the house. When funds ran out they turned to HEW, and are still doubling down, and fixing up a deflating asset. She finally admitted that I was right in selling my house and my other investment decisions (and not rebuying), but god it kills me. A friend of mine pulled money out so he could afford kindergarden for the kids (twins - parents both worked). A friend at work's ex-husband took it all out and bought power tools and a boat, she got left the house - small thanks.

Unfortunately you can't tell people anything; they just won't listen.

But as CalculatedRisk says - 'We're all subprime now'. Be careful folks.

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha This is absolutely correct. I had a drink with a woman nearing normal retirement age. She lives in a nice house in an expensive neighborhood which she and her husband bought many years ago when it was cheaper by at least 20 x. She wound up with the house in her divorce. She was saying how bad she felt that she would have to leave the neighborhood when she quits work. I asked if the taxes and upkeep were too high: she said no, I have refinanced many times and I can't afford the payments without a job. I have known her for years- the re-financing wasn't for home repairs or even for luxuries. It was to keep up a semblance of the life she was accustomed to as an upper-middle class married woman. I have to think that she is not alone, and that this source of cash drying up is going to make a big difference to the economy. The only thing that could possibly put it off would be to somehow re-blow the bubble. Ha

[UncleHoney]

Quote:

Originally Posted by danm Unfortunately you can't tell people anything; they just won't listen.

That's for sure.

Four years ago when my mom died my sister wanted to buy mom's house, appraised at $210K. With her part of the inheritance and the sale of her old house she was just $25k away from owning the house outright. Within 30 days of taking possession she refinanced and grabbed the the whole $210k. Seven month later she refinanced again and grabbed another $10k from the house and got a $20K HELOC.

I just shook my head after seeing what she did. I guess her thinking was she could have the house and the money too. I don't talk to her much but from what I hear from my other sister things are getting a little tight these days.

As for the money I think she used it to bankroll a new business she is starting. With her track record in high finance, it's only a matter of time before the wolves are howling at the door.

[Texas Proud]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny Sorry, but I'd have to call it very small, with no basis and highly unlikely. If prices were to drop past the median and "overshoot" it, existing homes would cost less then construction cost of the home alone, with negative value for the land. Never seen that happen, in any housing market in the US, ever. And I dont think the nasdaq dropped below its reasonable value either. At 1200 it was fairly valued by historic measures. At 5000 and PE's in the triple digits, it was pretty stupid. So were homes priced at $600k that cost $250k to build and sat on $50k lots.

You need to review the Houston market back in the mid 80s.... houses were selling for less than construction costs... and is a few bad areas, you could buy a house for $5 to $10K... some neighborhoods had 50% of their houses repoed and sold... some people made a killing in the S&L mess...

Now... I have been told by someone at the rating agency that this was the worst housing market ever in the US... don't know if true, but...

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by UncleHoney As for the money I think she used it to bankroll a new business she is starting. With her track record in high finance, it's only a matter of time before the wolves are howling at the door.

Maybe not. Most small business success depends more on practical and social skills, not high fianance or unusual analytical ability.

Ha

[toofrugalformycat]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Texas Proud You need to review the Houston market back in the mid 80s.... houses were selling for less than construction costs... and is a few bad areas, you could buy a house for $5 to $10K... some neighborhoods had 50% of their houses repoed and sold... some people made a killing in the S&L mess... Now... I have been told by someone at the rating agency that this was the worst housing market ever in the US... don't know if true, but...

I lived through the Anchorage tanking of real estate, about the same time as Houston. It was at least as bad as Houston, IMHO. So many people were turning in their keys and walking away, they didn't even have to declare bankruptcy or anything. There were several banks that failed. We had lots of practice with FDIC making good on their guarantees, as my checking account changed to a different bank three times as each bank failed and was absorbed by another, and we had a CD at a S&L that failed. DH and I hung on but it was many years before our house value recovered to what we paid for it.
That's not to say it'll happen all over again, but it HAS happened and in not too recent history. But if you can afford to sit tight for a decade or so, it really doesn't matter, unless you're counting on making a killing in real estate!

[SteveR]

I survived the housing purge in Texas in the mid 1980's. I was lucky enough to transfer into Austin at the peak and get transfered out two years later in the trough. I had to get a loan to pay off the difference between my mortgage and the assessed value. That sucked up 10 years of equity gains and left me house poor for a year until we saved enough cash for a down payment on a new house.

The home values here are actually up about 12% from a year ago. But the market is slowing and prices are flat to down a bit in the less favored areas. The local inventory is high but has dropped over the past couple of months. The low end is still very active as there are still more job openings than people to fill them so we are continuing our multi-year period of job expansion in the state. The middle to low-high end houses are where the glut is now and where the biggest percent price erosion is happening. (Houses under $700k.)

We are still getting the house ready to market by March. After it sells in a few months we plan on moving South to a warmer and drier area to avoid the snow and ice. The market down there is off by 10% so we hope to get what we want with the equity from the house here.

[clifp]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveR I survived the housing purge in Texas in the mid 1980's. I was lucky enough to transfer into Austin at the peak and get transfered out two years later in the trough. I had to get a loan to pay off the difference between my mortgage and the assessed value. That sucked up 10 years of equity gains and left me house poor for a year until we saved enough cash for a down payment on a new house.

Wow how old fashion paying back what you owe. For future reference.
The correct approach is to refi one more time perferable at 100% with a teaser ARM. Take the proceeds and make a down payment on a second home in Texas. Wait for Washington to bail you out so that you can continue pay 3% interest only loan for five years while renting the 1st house. Failing that mail the keys back to the lender along with a Tootsie Roll, or other form of sucker.

[FinallyRetired]

Quote:

Originally Posted by danm Immature? Odd statement. But you misunderstand, I wasn't comparing it to the GD - but was correcting CFB's err - he said house prices never have dropped below construction value, which they have.

Sorry, I meant "premature." Senior moment.

About stocks vs homes, I still say they are apples and oranges except for the investor or speculator. You can't get much shelter in your pets.com. And land has intrinsic value, it doesn't go away. So, 50% stock ownership vs 70% home ownership only says that, well, that 50% own stocks and 70% own homes.

Further, if a $50 stock drops to say $20, the average stock owner sells on the way down or (in my case) at the bottom. If a $500k home drops to $200k, the homeowner has to stay put unless they lose their job or have to move for some other reason. So we see the flurry of "at the bottom" sales from those transactions, but for the majority, the homes just sit there, lived in, and eventually regress to whatever their reasonable price is. Are people hurt? Of course, those who overpayed, house flippers, those who used their homes as a piggy bank, etc. But this is not like the dot com crash where companies at the top of the market one year are out of business the next, stock options became worthless, and stocks became wallpaper.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveR I survived the housing purge in Texas in the mid 1980's. I was lucky enough to transfer into Austin at the peak and get transfered out two years later in the trough. I had to get a loan to pay off the difference between my mortgage and the assessed value. That sucked up 10 years of equity gains and left me house poor for a year until we saved enough cash for a down payment on a new house. The home values here are actually up about 12% from a year ago. But the market is slowing and prices are flat to down a bit in the less favored areas. The local inventory is high but has dropped over the past couple of months. The low end is still very active as there are still more job openings than people to fill them so we are continuing our multi-year period of job expansion in the state. The middle to low-high end houses are where the glut is now and where the biggest percent price erosion is happening. (Houses under $700k.) We are still getting the house ready to market by March. After it sells in a few months we plan on moving South to a warmer and drier area to avoid the snow and ice. The market down there is off by 10% so we hope to get what we want with the equity from the house here.

We moved to Texas (College Station) in 1984, and bought our house there in 1987. I don't remember the year but at some point in the 1980's I remember my ex suggesting that we should buy a house down in Sugarland as an investment. So many had been left with the key in the door that we could have bought one for a song. But we decided it was too much hassle for us.

My ex rented out the house after our 1998 divorce and finally sold it in 2006, 19 years after we bought it, and according to the tax assessor records online he got 41% more than we paid for it. Sounds like a lot, but that comes out to only around 2%/year. Definitely not a great investment, but we enjoyed living in it while we were there.

[armor99]

I think it is interesting that in fact YES.... there IS a certain benefit to those who did not get caught up in the housing market bubble! If you actually do have some cash available, then you can buy a house fairly cheap now. I think the housing market will continue to drop for a year or so. But after that I plan on putting REIT stocks back in my portfolio. There are always options available to the savy investor if you can see past all the doom and gloom....

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Quote:

Originally Posted by danm Sorry right back, that is wrong. The last time house prices dropped on a national basis was the great depression, when they went around 90% peak to trough. It has happened in the US before, on a national basis no less. Doesn't matter, stocks, houses, whatever, investments can sell for less than book value. I won't argue it, I've deeply studied this credit and housing bubble for over two years now. I recall a similar discussion to this one a year or two ago. You had just bought a house and were letting us all know what a bargain you got on it. The board consensus thought prices wouldn't drop, and it's was a fools errand to rent versus buy. Well events were otherwise, and will continue. I'll check back in a year from now and see what folks are saying.

I guess if you're expecting another great depression, then you might be onto something. Otherwise, I think you're on something. Although now that you mention it, I think something also might have happened in Lusitania in the mid 1300's that also supports your theory.

Past that, I cant argue with anyone who has spent an entire two years studying something.

And yep, I bought that house with the tax free real estate profits I made over the last 5 years, and its still worth what I paid for it. If the prices dip further I might feel a little bit bad as I call the assessors office to have them reduce my property taxes.

[kumquat]

Interesting article

Bloomberg.com: Exclusive

[tryan]

Quote:

You need to review the Houston market back in the mid 80s.... houses were selling for less than construction costs... and is a few bad areas, you could buy a house for $5 to $10K...

Yup, same story north of Boston. Bought half a dozen properties below construction costs (and the copper was still in most of them!).

Save your pennies ... where there's chaos there's opportunity.

[Retire Soon]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Harriet Cutefuzzybunny is correct, the 2004-2006 were bubble prices, but many were desperate to buy thinking that they would lose out if they didn't.

We sold our house in San Diego in July, 2006 and moved out of state into a home we had purchased a few years earlier. When we returned to the area for Christmas, many people told us how lucky we got out when we did. Houses currently listed in our former neighborhood have asking prices of more than a hundred thousand dollars less than what we sold for and prices are still coming down. We'll never regret our decision to cash out during the bubble as it made our ER possible. Thank you subprime lenders for helping to make our dream come true!