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01-15-2008, 04:14 PM
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#101
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 2,049
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Quote:
Originally Posted by honobob
Well, I thought we were talking about the shortcomings of the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices? Just because you don't have any support for your initial assertation is no cause for name calling. And when did you get to call the topic?
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1) Oh, I thought that discussion was over. You dismissed Case-Shiller out-of-hand for your more accurate "much closer to the source" data. Enough said, right? Readers can draw their own conclusions.
Standard & Poor's - S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices
"The main variable used for index calculation is the price change between two arms-length sales of the same single-family home. Home price data are gathered after that information becomes publicly available at local recording offices across the country."
2) Name calling? :confused:
3) Because I can.
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01-15-2008, 06:47 PM
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#102
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,702
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Ugh. I cant take the flying swings from gross generalizations based on anecdotal data to small specifics based on questionable data.
All this fooping from the big picture to the small picture...
BTW, it was all gloom and doom in 2002 too. We were all gonna go broke, the economy was going to fly into the ground, 14 years of bear markets, cats sleeping with dogs, old people falling up stairs, godzilla, the red death. Everything.
Shoot and we just had a bunch of semi-bears saying the other day that stocks looked like a pretty good buy right now. Yet here are some predicting a stock market crash that will follow the inevitable recession that will follow the grand destruction of every persons personal finances. Because dontcha know, everyone bought and sold real estate in the last 3 years, or fully refi'd with an arm heloc and bought four hummers.
Oh. My. God.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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01-15-2008, 06:51 PM
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#103
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,703
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Speaking of fooping, aren't you the guy who was predicting that the S&P 500 was headed for 1000 back in Feb? Oh, wait. That was before you decided to dive back into stocks. Fooping makes sense now.
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Emancipated from wage-slavery since 2002
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01-15-2008, 06:52 PM
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#104
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gone traveling
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
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01-15-2008, 06:57 PM
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#105
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,702
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Actually I own very little in the way of equities in my taxable accounts.
I still think stocks will be going down further from here, just not as a function of the housing market. Bet we come a lot closer to 1000 than 2000 in the next year or two.
I guess I did point out that some other folks think there are a lot of bargains in equities. In this fabulous thread where minutia data becomes the norm and all life as we know it is soon to end, I guess the transfer is appropriate.
Whats the definition of twaddle again?
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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01-15-2008, 07:02 PM
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#106
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,703
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
\I still think stocks will be going down further from here, just not as a function of the housing market. Bet we come a lot closer to 1000 than 2000 in the next year or two.
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A function of what then? Please tell us how you divine the numbers, oh wise ass one.
I guess the largest housing bubble in the history of our country doesn't matter. So, I'm curious what does matter.
__________________
Emancipated from wage-slavery since 2002
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01-15-2008, 07:10 PM
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#107
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,702
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That does it. I'm too afraid to open this thread anymore!!!!
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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01-15-2008, 07:11 PM
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#108
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gone traveling
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twaddle
the largest housing bubble in the history of our country
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Oh. My. God. Has this been confirmed?
Nevermind, I thought Twaddleville wuz in Amerika.
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01-15-2008, 07:13 PM
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#109
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,703
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Watch it, buddy, or I'll post some graphs.
__________________
Emancipated from wage-slavery since 2002
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01-15-2008, 07:18 PM
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#110
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gone traveling
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
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Please, anything but the graphs!
Oh wait. We debunked the Case-Shiller.
see post 96
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01-15-2008, 07:21 PM
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#111
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,703
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OK, forget Case-Shiller. Let's look at housing as a percentage of GDP (I tried to warn you):
__________________
Emancipated from wage-slavery since 2002
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01-15-2008, 07:28 PM
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#112
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gone traveling
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twaddle
OK, forget Case-Shiller. Let's look at housing as a percentage of GDP (I tried to warn you):
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And they're related how? Let's look at housing as a percentage of my....... (Just like the scary movies, warnings from virgins go unheeded)
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01-15-2008, 07:35 PM
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#113
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,703
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Good point. We should look for a better relationship. Like housing prices to rent.
(Stop me before I graph again!)
__________________
Emancipated from wage-slavery since 2002
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01-15-2008, 07:50 PM
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#114
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gone traveling
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twaddle
Good point. We should look for a better relationship. Like housing prices to rent.
(Stop me before I graph again!)
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Yeah, I was gonna say you should graph off. Rent? Even commercial property dumped that old metric in favor of appreciation! GRM's GIM's are so 1999.
I'll post my huge office property appreciations tomorrow. There's some guy named Brian on NBC telling me consumer Christmess spending is off .004. BIGGEST drop in history since say about 5 years ago. May go out and buy a Wii to at least put us on the positive side. See, where others sit and moan I go out and try to make a difference.
Aloha, mein fiend.
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01-15-2008, 07:50 PM
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#115
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
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i have a graph request.
i'd like to see housing prices relative to population growth & diminishing land stock, particularly in south florida if it would not be too much of a bother. thank you.
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin
"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
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01-15-2008, 07:55 PM
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#116
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 2,049
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Quote:
Originally Posted by honobob
I'll post my huge office property appreciations tomorrow.
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Haven't we already established that you're a real estate genius?
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01-15-2008, 07:57 PM
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#117
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,703
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__________________
Emancipated from wage-slavery since 2002
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01-15-2008, 08:00 PM
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#118
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,702
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Aiyee! I looked again!
Well lets see, rent is tied to low-mid range salaries, so has no elasticity.
Home prices are a function of future earnings and future home values.
So hmm...its like comparing bonds with stocks.
I am also surprised in looking at your chart to see that home valuations appear to have risen during the great depression. So much for that whole bit about home prices dropping during the depression. Dang, I guess you have to check every 'fact' that anyone throws out. And they never drop an equal amount below the mean to offset the rise. So much for THAT theory.
In fact, it appears that during the modern era of the last 100 years or so any downturns seem to be uncorrelated with the economy and were of short duration. We had up and down turns when the economy was good and the same when the economy was bad.
What does matter? Not much. Except for people who create doom and gloom from unwhole cloth, fake facts and anecdotal data.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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01-15-2008, 08:03 PM
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#119
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,702
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Buy peaches!!! Sell oranges!!!
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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01-15-2008, 08:05 PM
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#120
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,703
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Home prices are a function of future home prices. OK, let me write that down.
And any predicition of an economic downturn is "doom and gloom." Recessions happen. And timing them can be fun!
__________________
Emancipated from wage-slavery since 2002
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