Falling home prices

[eridanus]

Quote:

Originally Posted by honobob Well, I thought we were talking about the shortcomings of the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices? Just because you don't have any support for your initial assertation is no cause for name calling. And when did you get to call the topic?

1) Oh, I thought that discussion was over. You dismissed Case-Shiller out-of-hand for your more accurate "much closer to the source" data. Enough said, right? Readers can draw their own conclusions.

Standard & Poor's - S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices

"The main variable used for index calculation is the price change between two arms-length sales of the same single-family home. Home price data are gathered after that information becomes publicly available at local recording offices across the country."

2) Name calling? :confused:

3) Because I can.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Ugh. I cant take the flying swings from gross generalizations based on anecdotal data to small specifics based on questionable data.

All this fooping from the big picture to the small picture...

BTW, it was all gloom and doom in 2002 too. We were all gonna go broke, the economy was going to fly into the ground, 14 years of bear markets, cats sleeping with dogs, old people falling up stairs, godzilla, the red death. Everything.

Shoot and we just had a bunch of semi-bears saying the other day that stocks looked like a pretty good buy right now. Yet here are some predicting a stock market crash that will follow the inevitable recession that will follow the grand destruction of every persons personal finances. Because dontcha know, everyone bought and sold real estate in the last 3 years, or fully refi'd with an arm heloc and bought four hummers.

Oh. My. God.

[twaddle]

Speaking of fooping, aren't you the guy who was predicting that the S&P 500 was headed for 1000 back in Feb? Oh, wait. That was before you decided to dive back into stocks. Fooping makes sense now.

[honobob]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny cats sleeping with dogs, hummers. Oh. My. God.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Quote:

Originally Posted by twaddle Speaking of fooping, aren't you the guy who was predicting that the S&P 500 was headed for 1000 back in Feb? Oh, wait. That was before you decided to dive back into stocks. Fooping makes sense now.

Actually I own very little in the way of equities in my taxable accounts.

I still think stocks will be going down further from here, just not as a function of the housing market. Bet we come a lot closer to 1000 than 2000 in the next year or two.

I guess I did point out that some other folks think there are a lot of bargains in equities. In this fabulous thread where minutia data becomes the norm and all life as we know it is soon to end, I guess the transfer is appropriate.

Whats the definition of twaddle again?

[twaddle]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny \I still think stocks will be going down further from here, just not as a function of the housing market. Bet we come a lot closer to 1000 than 2000 in the next year or two.

A function of what then? Please tell us how you divine the numbers, oh wise ass one.

I guess the largest housing bubble in the history of our country doesn't matter. So, I'm curious what does matter.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

That does it. I'm too afraid to open this thread anymore!!!!

[honobob]

Quote:

Originally Posted by twaddle the largest housing bubble in the history of our country

Oh. My. God. Has this been confirmed?

Nevermind, I thought Twaddleville wuz in Amerika.

[twaddle]

Quote:

Originally Posted by honobob Oh. My. God. Has this been confirmed?

Watch it, buddy, or I'll post some graphs.

[honobob]

Quote:

Originally Posted by twaddle Watch it, buddy, or I'll post some graphs.

Please, anything but the graphs!

Oh wait. We debunked the Case-Shiller.

see post 96

[twaddle]

OK, forget Case-Shiller. Let's look at housing as a percentage of GDP (I tried to warn you):

[honobob]

Quote:

Originally Posted by twaddle OK, forget Case-Shiller. Let's look at housing as a percentage of GDP (I tried to warn you):

And they're related how? Let's look at housing as a percentage of my....... (Just like the scary movies, warnings from virgins go unheeded)

[twaddle]

Good point. We should look for a better relationship. Like housing prices to rent.



(Stop me before I graph again!)

[honobob]

Quote:

Originally Posted by twaddle Good point. We should look for a better relationship. Like housing prices to rent. (Stop me before I graph again!)

Yeah, I was gonna say you should graph off. Rent? Even commercial property dumped that old metric in favor of appreciation! GRM's GIM's are so 1999.

I'll post my huge office property appreciations tomorrow. There's some guy named Brian on NBC telling me consumer Christmess spending is off .004. BIGGEST drop in history since say about 5 years ago. May go out and buy a Wii to at least put us on the positive side. See, where others sit and moan I go out and try to make a difference.

Aloha, mein fiend.

[lazygood4nothinbum]

i have a graph request.

i'd like to see housing prices relative to population growth & diminishing land stock, particularly in south florida if it would not be too much of a bother. thank you.

[eridanus]

Quote:

Originally Posted by honobob I'll post my huge office property appreciations tomorrow.

Haven't we already established that you're a real estate genius?

[twaddle]

Quote:

Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum i have a graph request. i'd like to see housing prices relative to population growth & diminishing land stock, particularly in south florida if it would not be too much of a bother. thank you.

I aim to please. Is San Diego close enough to Florida? Well, they're both warm and bubbly.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Aiyee! I looked again!

Well lets see, rent is tied to low-mid range salaries, so has no elasticity.

Home prices are a function of future earnings and future home values.

So hmm...its like comparing bonds with stocks.

I am also surprised in looking at your chart to see that home valuations appear to have risen during the great depression. So much for that whole bit about home prices dropping during the depression. Dang, I guess you have to check every 'fact' that anyone throws out. And they never drop an equal amount below the mean to offset the rise. So much for THAT theory.

In fact, it appears that during the modern era of the last 100 years or so any downturns seem to be uncorrelated with the economy and were of short duration. We had up and down turns when the economy was good and the same when the economy was bad.

What does matter? Not much. Except for people who create doom and gloom from unwhole cloth, fake facts and anecdotal data.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Buy peaches!!! Sell oranges!!!

[twaddle]

Home prices are a function of future home prices. OK, let me write that down.

And any predicition of an economic downturn is "doom and gloom." Recessions happen. And timing them can be fun!