Falling home prices

[FANOFJESUS]

I saw this on a blog and was shocked. I thought I would share it with everyone.

9701 LAFAYETTE AVE
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $129,900
Prior Sale: $450,000 4/10/2006
Listing Date: 10/09/07
-71.1%



1312 D ST
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $167,900
Prior Sale: $430,000 9/15/2005
Listing Date: 12/24/07
-61.0%



8204 CLAREMONT ST
MANASSAS, VA 20110
List Price: $189,900
Prior Sale: $475,000 5/8/2006
Listing Date: 12/31/07
-60.0%



9702 KING GEORGE DR
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $199,000
Prior Sale: $470,000 6/29/2006
Listing Date: 12/28/07
-57.7%



3310 BEAUMONT RD
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $165,000
Prior Sale: $385,000 10/5/2005
Listing Date: 09/25/07
-57.1%



9404 WESTMORELAND AVE
MANASSAS, VA 20110
List Price: $179,900
Prior Sale: $415,000 11/30/2005
Listing Date: 09/24/07
-56.7%



8269 VERNON ST
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $160,000
Prior Sale: $355,950 5/01/2006
Listing Date: 01/09/08
-55.0%



9410 WESTMORELAND AVE
MANASSAS, VA 20110
List Price: $169,000
Prior Sale: $375,000 4/4/2006
Listing Date: 01/01/08
-54.9%



1607 HORNER RD
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $149,900
Prior Sale: $330,000 9/9/2005
Listing Date: 11/30/07
-54.6%



9529 LOMOND DR
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $174,900
Prior Sale: $385,000 10/31/2005
Listing Date: 09/07/07
-54.6%



8388 IRONGATE WAY
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $125,500
Prior Sale: $275,000 8/4/2006
Listing Date: 09/28/07
-54.4%



9926 HENRICO ST
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $194,700
Prior Sale: $423,000 9/06/2005
Listing Date: 12/30/07
-54.0%



4520 EVANSDALE RD
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $177,500
Prior Sale: $375,000 5/19/2006
Listing Date: 01/05/08
-52.7%



314 DARTMOUTH DR E #204
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $140,000
Prior Sale: $286,900 9/20/2005
Listing Date: 12/20/07
-51.2%



912 HOPTON RD
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $178,500
Prior Sale: $365,000 6/29/2006
Listing Date: 12/12/07
-51.1%



1205 HALE CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $169,900
Prior Sale: $345,000 8/9/2005
Listing Date: 07/24/07
-50.8%



1915 HALIFAX RD
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $209,900
Prior Sale: $425,000 9/29/2005
Listing Date: 12/27/07
-50.6%



153 MEADOWS LN NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $159,900
Prior Sale: $324,000 4/6/2005
Listing Date: 11/09/07
-50.6%



8202 CLAREMONT ST
MANASSAS, VA 20110
List Price: $195,000
Prior Sale: $392,000 10/3/2005
Listing Date: 10/25/07
-50.3%



15418 MICHIGAN RD
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $184,900
Prior Sale: $370,000 3/06/2006
Listing Date: 01/08/08
-50.0%



10063 IRONGATE WAY
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $135,000
Prior Sale: $270,000 7/1/2005
Listing Date: 12/23/07
-50.0%



1538 MAURICE DR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $199,900
Prior Sale: $400,000 11/20/2006
Listing Date: 10/09/07
-50.0%



8234 WYCLIFFE CT
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $169,900
Prior Sale: $338,900 10/31/2005
Listing Date: 01/02/08
-49.9%



7873 MEADOW CT
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $145,900
Prior Sale: $289,400 6/30/2005
Listing Date: 11/07/07
-49.6%



4303 ELLIOT CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $164,900
Prior Sale: $325,000 04/14/2006
Listing Date: 11/06/07
-49.3%



10155 IRONGATE WAY
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $114,900
Prior Sale: $226,000 1/05/2005
Listing Date: 01/03/08
-49.2%



1303 OREGON AVE
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $185,000
Prior Sale: $364,000 5/2/2006
Listing Date: 12/14/07
-49.2%



14383 BERKSHIRE
DALE CITY, VA 22193
List Price: $150,000
Prior Sale: $295,000 4/10/2006
Listing Date: 09/27/07
-49.2%



14209 BIRCHDALE AVE
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $192,900
Prior Sale: $378,000 10/25/2005
Listing Date: 12/27/07
-49.0%



14322 BIRCHDALE AVE
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $185,000
Prior Sale: $362,000 4/27/2006
Listing Date: 12/13/07
-48.9%



3535 FORESTDALE AVE
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $184,900
Prior Sale: $359,900 6/27/2006
Listing Date: 12/25/07
-48.6%



181 MEADOWS LN NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $179,900
Prior Sale: $350,000 7/25/2005
Listing Date: 12/20/07
-48.6



1482 ARKANSAS CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $179,900
Prior Sale: $350,000 8/02/2005
Listing Date: 12/10/07
-48.6%



2410 DREXEL ST
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22192
List Price: $214,900
Prior Sale: $417,000 12/19/2005
Listing Date: 12/28/07
-48.5%



126 HAYLOFT CIR
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $169,900
Prior Sale: $330,000 7/20/2005
Listing Date: 12/14/07
-48.5%



1437 CALIFORNIA ST
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $199,900
Prior Sale: $387,000 8/28/2006
Listing Date: 09/17/07
-48.3%



7939 COMMUNITY DR
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $150,000
Prior Sale: $290,000 8/1/2005
Listing Date: 08/21/07
-48.3%



415 MAPLE AVE
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $230,500
Prior Sale: $442,000 8/8/2005
Listing Date: 10/18/07
-47.9%

 

[Walt34]

Yow!

If true (what is the source?) then talk about a house of cards crashing.

It does seem unlikely given the historic economic stability in the Washington, DC area because of all the US government employment there.

 

[FANOFJESUS]

Here is the source

http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2008/01/real-estate-live-highlights.html

 

[FinallyRetired]

I don't know how accurate those numbers are. I checked just the first house on the list, listed as:

9701 LAFAYETTE AVE
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $129,900
Prior Sale: $450,000 4/10/2006
Listing Date: 10/09/07
-71.1%

But when I go to Zillow it shows the last sale on 1/5/2007 for $380,093. And its Zillow estimate is $332,500 and doesn't show up as being for sale.

The second one is listed as:
1312 D ST
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $167,900
Prior Sale: $430,000 9/15/2005
Listing Date: 12/24/07
-61.0%

The previous sale of $430,000 in 2005 is correct but Zillow shows its estimate as $339,000 and doesn't show it for sale. The house next door sold for $250k last May but is only 1400 sq ft, whereas this one is 1800 sq ft.

Prices are certainly dropping, but not sure if the extremes shown on this blog are correct.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Hmmm...bad data and perhaps a case of looking at what a stupid price some stupid people paid a year or two ago. What are the current prices vs 3-4 years ago?

The problem with the nasdaq drop from 5000 to 1200 wasnt that it was worth 5000 and dropped to 1200, it was that it was worth 1200 but some people elected to pay 5000 for it...

 

[FinallyRetired]

Hmmm...bad data and perhaps a case of looking at what a stupid price some stupid people paid a year or two ago. What are the current prices vs 3-4 years ago?

The problem with the nasdaq drop from 5000 to 1200 wasnt that it was worth 5000 and dropped to 1200, it was that it was worth 1200 but some people elected to pay 5000 for it...

Here is the sales history on the first home from the tax assessor's site:

1972: $32,000
1988: $106,000
2002: $212,000
2006: $450,000 (oops)
2007: $380.093 (more oops)

The last sale was to a bank, so it looks like a repo. I figure the $380k is the balance of the $450k owner's loan. If the bank is now offering it for $129k, they are taking a bath and someone will be getting a good price... maybe. The tax assessment is $336k.

Many of these homes are forced sales because the owner lost a job, had to move, and there were zero buyers at any price. That's one difference with the Naz, there's always a buyer at some price for a stock, even if it's the market maker.

 

[Harriet]

Hi all,

I'm the NovaBubbleFallout blogger and just wanted to clarify for you all that I get the past sales records from the county tax databases. In these cases, you can look up the addresses at the Prince William County database:

LandRover 2.0

Also, for the listings, note the listing dates. These are properties currently in the MLS system:

- Property Finder and
- Property Finder

are the first two examples of Lafayette in Manassas and D Street in Woodbridge.

At the County assessment site, you can click on the assessment value and get a feel for what the county thought the properties were worth at the time.

Every week I look through what's currently listed and post the asking prices vs. prior sales. I use that data to compile the "top discounts" column.

Cutefuzzybunny is correct, the 2004-2006 were bubble prices, but many were desperate to buy thinking that they would lose out if they didn't.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Which still makes this a matter of perception.

Have prices fallen or did people for a short period of time pay a price unsupported by any reasonable valuation metric, and that period is over?

Tulips. Nasdaq 5000. 2003-2005 housing prices.

Bad things for people who flew into the middle of them, caught up in the furor and leaving their brains at home. Good things for people who recognize the behavior and unload their holdings, only to reload later. I'm not talking about 10%-20% market timing here, but when people are really drunk and doing really stupid things. Also perfectly fine for someone who bought in 4-5+ years ago and sat still through it. Except for that kicking self in the ass thing.

Was there a bubble? Yep. Is it over? Yep. Will prices keep falling past their ~2001-2002 reasonable valuation levels? Unlikely. Will real estate continue its appreciation at ~inflation levels with some boost for desirable properties (waterfront, certain urban areas such as SF/Manhattan with limited buildable land)? Yep.

 

[FIRE'd@51]

I read an article a while back that said that in Northern Virginia in 2000, the average home sold for about 3 times the average family income. By 2006, this ratio had reached 6. Clearly a ratio like this can't be sustained, even without a rise in interest rates, or the subprime mess. Over the long term, home prices on average pretty much track wage growth.

 

[danm]

"Will prices keep falling past their ~2001-2002 reasonable valuation levels? Unlikely"

Markets overshoot on the underside as much as they do on the upside. See the dot.com aftermath for reference. Nationwide houses need to drop 50% to get back to their median trend, adjusted for inflation and 'features' (size mostly). That trend goes much farther back than US stocks, you can trace it about 400 years (from the new to the old world)

Locally I'm seeing MLS listings with healthy 50% drops, and the pop has just started. This is mostly with the bank owned houses, the upper end hasn't seen it yet but soon enough. There is a food chain in housing, the bottom gets kicked out will travel up the chain. Regardless 70% of Americans own homes, and with even a mild 30% drop in values (the present consensus) you'll have about 15M underwater homeowners. What will be their response? One example, the insurance industry is planning for increased arson. Makes jingle mail look tame by comparison!

If you trace the economic expansion since 2000, in relation to the housing bubble, and you look at what can fuel future expansion in the near-medium term, you get interesting ideas about the future valuations of stocks, bonds, RE and the rest, in my small opinion!

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

i'm curious to know how much of the steep increases were total scams from the getgo and i'd love to see them prosecuted.

i've got a house on the corner of my block which sold for $14k in 1965, $37.5k in 1978 to a church & then $320 in oct 2006 & $535k in dec 2006. currently in foreclosure, i expect the property will go up for sale at about $250k. (this area did undergo a huge transformation from crack town to the absolutely hottest gay area east of west hollywood since i've moved here--from section 8 housing to houses now selling over $1mm.)

yes, some stupidity drove up the market but $215k profit in two months? is that stupidity or criminal? i suspect the latter.

in the high end area of my inherited house, 30-35% off my projected peak value (based on comp sales) brings me down to a compounded rate of about 6% per year over the last 28 years which seems even less than fair for high end, deepwater, walk to beach property in an area which as seen huge population growth which continues to grow and which has gone from an undeveloped area to an completely developed area.

my unscientific feeling is that foreclosures might go near half priced and they are dragging the nonforeclosed properties down 30-35%. my hope is that after the bottom feeders are well fed, that the inherited house will sell at least near a fair price.

 

[calmloki]

Oh Cwap! you guys are freaking me out! Better peddle all our rentals ASAP - at any price and quickly put the money raised into money markets - no, CDs, no, stocks.... well foo - anything going up but gold? Point being, doing the same thing, or doing nothing for long enough seems to work out pretty well. Stay the course. 9-11

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

in my small opinion!

Sorry, but I'd have to call it very small, with no basis and highly unlikely.

If prices were to drop past the median and "overshoot" it, existing homes would cost less then construction cost of the home alone, with negative value for the land.

Never seen that happen, in any housing market in the US, ever.

And I dont think the nasdaq dropped below its reasonable value either. At 1200 it was fairly valued by historic measures. At 5000 and PE's in the triple digits, it was pretty stupid.

So were homes priced at $600k that cost $250k to build and sat on $50k lots.

 

[jazz4cash]

Withdrawn

 

[twaddle]

I promised honobob that we'd see 50% discounts on Newport Beach homes. We're not there yet, but here's a 48% discount on Newport Coast:

26 Still Water, Newport Coast, CA, $1,300,000, Newport Coast Real Estate

 

[Purron]

I live in Northern Virginia and don't think these price drops are typical. For one thing, the properties listed in the OP are in generally less sought after neighborhoods about 30 miles from DC. With the traffic in this area, that means a commute of over one hour each way. Most of the people I know in this area have seen about an 8% drop in the value of their homes. Condos have gone down more but in some close in, desirable neighborhoods, prices are steady or even going up a little. Forclosed properties which have been vacant a long time are going for fire sale prices, particularly in Manassas and Woodbridge, VA.

From everything I have been reading, prices in this area are expected to go down some more but no where near the level of these properties. I expect prices will stabilize in about a year then continue gaining at very modest levels.

 

[donheff]

Ditto what Purron says. On Capitol Hill in DC prices have dropped, but not precipitously, and home continue to sell.

 

[danm]

Sorry, but I'd have to call it very small, with no basis and highly unlikely.

If prices were to drop past the median and "overshoot" it, existing homes would cost less then construction cost of the home alone, with negative value for the land.

Never seen that happen, in any housing market in the US, ever.

Sorry right back, that is wrong. The last time house prices dropped on a national basis was the great depression, when they went around 90% peak to trough. It has happened in the US before, on a national basis no less. Doesn't matter, stocks, houses, whatever, investments can sell for less than book value.

I won't argue it, I've deeply studied this credit and housing bubble for over two years now. I recall a similar discussion to this one a year or two ago. You had just bought a house and were letting us all know what a bargain you got on it. The board consensus thought prices wouldn't drop, and it's was a fools errand to rent versus buy. Well events were otherwise, and will continue. I'll check back in a year from now and see what folks are saying.

 

[FinallyRetired]

Hi all,

I'm the NovaBubbleFallout blogger and just wanted to clarify for you all that I get the past sales records from the county tax databases. In these cases, you can look up the addresses at the Prince William County database:

Hi, Harriet, thanks for coming on and giving us your source data. It really is surprising, but you're right, that one home did indeed sell for 450k less than two years ago and is now being offered for about 130k,

Now, I'm no real estate expert, but I know Northern Virginia and even the bad parts of Manassas are not slums like you find in the District. And this is a 4BR 2.5 bath home. It was certainly bubble priced at 450k, but at 130k it's a downright steal. Someone mentioned an hour + commute, yes, probably, but we're talking 130k, you can take a Hummer with a chauffer into town every day and still make out. Or how about a retiree who wants to be an hour away from DC and pay peanuts for a pretty large home?

Something just doesn't sound right. I note there is a caution about not even being able to show it without signing a mold waiver, maybe it has a severe mold problems. Or maybe housing is undershooting as much as it overshot. As someone else said, you go low enough and you get under construction costs or land values.

Since it's your blog, what do you think is going on?

Danm: It's a bit immature to compare today's housing situation with the great depression. But even if house prices were to drop 90% top to through, this is fundamentally different than stocks dropping that much. For speculators, yes. For the average person, no. People need homes to live in, whether they buy or rent. If everyone's house was instantly worth 10% of what they paid for it, there would be no difference in day to day living. And when a house needed to be sold at a bargain price, another one could be bought at a similar bargain price. If anything, this would provide a real stimulus to first time buyers and to the economy as a whole. Exept for speculators, or those who were using their homes as a piggy bank.

 

[Purron]

I've deeply studied this credit and housing bubble for over two years now.

So, based upon your two years of research, what are you planning to do about this in regards to your own personal situation? Do you own any property yourself? If so, do you plan to sell? If you rent, do you plan to buy at any particular point in time?

 

[Harriet]

Hi, Harriet, thanks for coming on and giving us your source data. It really is surprising, but you're right, that one home did indeed sell for 450k less than two years ago and is now being offered for about 130k,

Now, I'm no real estate expert, but I know Northern Virginia and even the bad parts of Manassas are not slums like you find in the District. And this is a 4BR 2.5 bath home. It was certainly bubble priced at 450k, but at 130k it's a downright steal. Someone mentioned an hour + commute, yes, probably, but we're talking 130k, you can take a Hummer with a chauffer into town every day and still make out. Or how about a retiree who wants to be an hour away from DC and pay peanuts for a pretty large home?

Something just doesn't sound right. I note there is a caution about not even being able to show it without signing a mold waiver, maybe it has a severe mold problems. Or maybe housing is undershooting as much as it overshot. As someone else said, you go low enough and you get under construction costs or land values.

Since it's your blog, what do you think is going on?

Danm: It's a bit immature to compare today's housing situation with the great depression. But even if house prices were to drop 90% top to through, this is fundamentally different than stocks dropping that much. For speculators, yes. For the average person, no. People need homes to live in, whether they buy or rent. If everyone's house was instantly worth 10% of what they paid for it, there would be no difference in day to day living. And when a house needed to be sold at a bargain price, another one could be bought at a similar bargain price. If anything, this would provide a real stimulus to first time buyers and to the economy as a whole. Exept for speculators, or those who were using their homes as a piggy bank.

SoonToRetire,

When I first started the blog in March of 2007, my purpose was to track events in NoVA as they unfolded. Last Spring, we were seeing extremes of 20% losses on same-house sales. Throughout the year, they got worse, and in one of the worst-hit counties (Prince William) prices went from 20-30-40-50% off prior sale prices.

There's a ton of land in Prince William County and a lot of overbuilding. But fundamentally what we are seeing is no different from the rest of the bubble areas in the country (which is just about all of it).

A $130K mortgage is small, but it's nothing to sneeze at. With a 7% interest rate it would take an income of $45K to support that. That's more than two jobs at Starbucks, if you will. Not everyone can snag a high-paying job in D.C. Prince William County has an enormous immigrant population - non English-speaking folks who just don't make a ton of cash. They're the ones who were first out, and the downward spiral continues for all.

Consumer debt is also very high among the Gen-X middle class. People bit off more than they could chew in other areas. If you've got $50K of credit card debt, you can't afford much of a house. A huge psychology change took place that your credit cards were your cushion against job loss. It just doesn't work that way.

I could go on and on, but most of what I'm saying is mentioned in the national financial news. There was too much money being lent out there (liquidity) that Americans (and those from other nations) are having difficulty repaying.

 

[honobob]

Harriet
You list same house sales but you're only showing a prior sales price and a listing price. Surely in you extensive 9 month research you have an actual matched resale. Could you share?

 

[danm]

So, based upon your two years of research, what are you planning to do about this in regards to your own personal situation? Do you own any property yourself? If so, do you plan to sell? If you rent, do you plan to buy at any particular point in time?

Hi Purron,
I sold my house in summer 2005, about one month after the local peak. Actually prices had leveled off the previous spring, but few realized it. We had four bidders, I dropped the 'fair value' of my house by 10K to make it move, but the price promptly was bid up above my estimation of comps value - my fingers were crossed during the entire short escrow! I've been renting since. The old house is about 20% off since then, I expect it to go to at least 30%, but probably will go to 50%.
There is data going back 400 years to Amsterdam. Houses appreciate about .1%-.3%/year above inflation. They also track income/rents (rent is equivalent to income) very closely - no surprise. If you want the hard data read up on what Shiller at Yale has to say, or pay for Gary Shilling's private research (available from his web site). His newsletter - 40 pages stuffed with research is a wonderful resource. He predicted this credit crisis to the letter - two years ago. Wish I had bought into some of his investments leading up to it - 600% gain on the crashing ABX index. At any rate I'll buy a house again, when it costs as much to buy as to rent.
Few people still appreciate how extraordinary this credit bubble is. The world has never really had anything like this before, it's rather beautiful in a terrifying sort of way.
If you don't want to pay for research here is a really good piece, including the earlier letters.

http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/HIM2007Q4NP.pdf

 

[DJRR]

Interesting site. I also live in NOVA for 30 years and follow the market pretty closely. I knew PW County was getting hammered (about 17 mo supply of inventory), but that is huge.

1st house - "Must sign mold disclosure" I would guess that the owners moved out when they got the foreclosure notice and before the bank finally got possession a water leak led to mold. I would be suprised if it ends up ever selling - probably be demolished for the lot.

2nd house - "special addendums required" Wonder what wrong with that one.

These areas were brutalized by mortgage brokers giving no doc loans to immigrants who did not understand the process. Sad, but they are paying the price. These parts of Mannasas and Woodbridge are what passes for low income here and were truly in a bubble.

Even where I live in Fairfax there are now some neighborhood homes for sale under $400k. These are all bank owned and mostly bought to "flip" by investors. They are generally in the worst locations, etc. I would guess my house has fallen about 10-15% from the peak in 2005, but is still about 50% higher than my purchase price in 2003 with sales taking about 6-8 months.

 

[danm]

Danm: It's a bit immature to compare today's housing situation with the great depression. But even if house prices were to drop 90% top to through, this is fundamentally different than stocks dropping that much.

Immature? Odd statement. But you misunderstand, I wasn't comparing it to the GD - but was correcting CFB's err - he said house prices never have dropped below construction value, which they have.

Damn - they're doing it right now in Michigan, with all the auto industry troubles. You'd be hard pressed to build a new house for 30k, what many houses are selling for in Michigan.

Further - you are absolutely correct this IS different from stocks dropping in value, about 70% of Americans bought their houses, whereas stock ownership is skewed to the top, and less than 50% own any stocks at all. The effects of prices dropping are much more broad based, the dot.com bust doesn't compare.

The economy is 70% consumer based, and was funded by home equity withdrawal the last 7 years. Consumers have increased spending, over income, steadily by 1-2%/year for the last 25. Incomes have been down since 2000 due to global wage arbritrage (one reason corp profits got so high), and so they have spent the house equity to make up the difference. I have a study of what funds consumers, in aggregate, have left to spend, and the only thing left is pension type money, which is hard or impossible to raid.

The 'everybody has to live in a house' argument is way past it's expiration date. The US has a huge surplus of housing, both buy and rental, there is no shortage of places to live. Besides which economic and investing events are driven by the margin, not those folks who sit it out, and didn't speculate or take out HEW.

Another wonderful, free resource on housing related matters is

Calculated Risk