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Old 01-20-2018, 09:22 PM   #81
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Today I ran across this representation of the length of bull markets (found from a posting on Bogleheads). By their criteria we have room to run (greed). It is a "History of U.S. Bear and Bull Markets Since 1926" and this one is only average so far.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/...8-628ff9bfe12d
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Old 01-21-2018, 01:12 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by USGrant1962 View Post
Today I ran across this representation of the length of bull markets (found from a posting on Bogleheads). By their criteria we have room to run (greed). It is a "History of U.S. Bear and Bull Markets Since 1926" and this one is only average so far.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/...8-628ff9bfe12d
That’s the length of bear markets from peak to trough, but doesn’t include time to recover to the prior peak. The S&P500 index didn’t recover it’s 2000 peak until Oct of 2007, just in time for an even bigger bear. The Oct 2007 peak wasn’t exceeded until 2013.

Total return including dividends will shorten the recovery time. By a year in the last two cases. VTSAX recovers its 2000 peak by late 2006 so around 6.5 years. The Oct 2007 peak is recovered by early 2012, 4.5 years.
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Old 01-21-2018, 01:31 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by USGrant1962 View Post
Today I ran across this representation of the length of bull markets (found from a posting on Bogleheads). By their criteria we have room to run (greed). It is a "History of U.S. Bear and Bull Markets Since 1926" and this one is only average so far.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/...8-628ff9bfe12d
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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Old 01-21-2018, 11:37 AM   #84
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fear and greed are the two emotions that make the majority of individual investors perform wealth killing mistakes. Personally I have been at this game for a long time and unfortunately heard too many stories about people making predictions about where the market is headed like "the bull market has another year or two run" statements like this are absolute bunk. The tragedy is when folks make investment decisions based on this kind of thought process. A few quotes that are appropriate "nobody knows nothin'" Bogle. "Ignore that last ten years and focus on the long term" Bernstein. One more that I really like is "100% of what you hear on TV and 99% of what you read about the market is worse than worthless" another Bernstein.

---Understand portfolio theory
---Study market history
---Don't let emotions factor into you investment decisions.
---Eliminate as many fees as possible---buy index funds for the bulk of your holdings.

Nothing new here. All I have is my experience and its worked for me for a very long time now. Before that I thought I was smarter than the market.
As a new investor, I've heard the recent predictions from Vanguard about international markets outperforming US markets, and the importance of being globally diversified for the future. I realized all of my equities are domestic US, so I moved 10% of my portfolio to FTIPX, purely following this advice and not out of any real conviction of my own, which assumes that tax cuts will keep US markets healthy. Still deciding if this is me becoming more seasoned, or reacting to market predictions. I expect the international exposure to increase my volatility, and portfolio visualizer implies a lower return over time based on past data, neither of which thrill me, but I am now more diversified.
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Old 01-22-2018, 04:13 PM   #85
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I was here on this board during the last market crash 10 years ago, at the time I was in my early 30s and had a measly 200k portfolio and calmly declaring, "Stocks are on sale! Time to buy!" Now my retirement accounts alone have crossed 750k and I now know the icicles of fear my more experienced ER types were feeling back then. It's tempting to buy a crystal ball and try to market time when the stakes feel so much higher. Between my stocks and my rental property we can actually see bare bones FIRE from where we are at now, it starts to mess with your head a bit!
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Old 01-22-2018, 05:32 PM   #86
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I was here on this board during the last market crash 10 years ago, at the time I was in my early 30s and had a measly 200k portfolio and calmly declaring, "Stocks are on sale! Time to buy!" Now my retirement accounts alone have crossed 750k and I now know the icicles of fear my more experienced ER types were feeling back then. It's tempting to buy a crystal ball and try to market time when the stakes feel so much higher. Between my stocks and my rental property we can actually see bare bones FIRE from where we are at now, it starts to mess with your head a bit!

Absolutely! Sure, I am somewhat envious of those who had the nerve to be fully, or nearly fully, invested in equities these last 2 years (exactly the period of my retirement), instead of the pedestrian 45% I have been. But, had I been, I would have either sold to lock in some profits, or be sleepless.

I have to remind myself that if the market continues to climb, I'll be fine. And if it corrects, I'll be fine. Asset Allocation in conformance with risk tolerance, and an understanding of how long you have to recover if you get it wrong, are the keys, IMO.
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Old 01-25-2018, 10:27 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by laurence View Post
I was here on this board during the last market crash 10 years ago, at the time I was in my early 30s and had a measly 200k portfolio and calmly declaring, "Stocks are on sale! Time to buy!" Now my retirement accounts alone have crossed 750k and I now know the icicles of fear my more experienced ER types were feeling back then. It's tempting to buy a crystal ball and try to market time when the stakes feel so much higher. Between my stocks and my rental property we can actually see bare bones FIRE from where we are at now, it starts to mess with your head a bit!
Chickenheartedness. That's my grand theory. Having putzed in the market since 1966 one would think I have grasped the grit of 'Stay the Course' vs 'This Time it's Different'.

Going full auto 2006 with Target Retirement before the last downturn I had mastered emotion. Right?

heh heh heh - I did manage to stay the course but there was some tush pucker and short periods when I refused to check Mr Market.
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Old 01-25-2018, 10:33 AM   #88
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I was here on this board during the last market crash 10 years ago, at the time I was in my early 30s and had a measly 200k portfolio and calmly declaring, "Stocks are on sale! Time to buy!" Now my retirement accounts alone have crossed 750k and I now know the icicles of fear my more experienced ER types were feeling back then. It's tempting to buy a crystal ball and try to market time when the stakes feel so much higher. Between my stocks and my rental property we can actually see bare bones FIRE from where we are at now, it starts to mess with your head a bit!
You now have Loss Aversion, because you have more to lose.
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Old 01-25-2018, 10:53 AM   #89
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The Market.......

Dilley Dilley!
Dilley Dilley!
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Old 01-25-2018, 11:02 AM   #90
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You now have Loss Aversion, because you have more to lose.
I heard a great quote the other day: "The haves spend all their time worrying about becoming the have nots".
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Old 01-25-2018, 11:14 AM   #91
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Purely a speculative post. The bull has been running strong for nine years. How much longer will the bovine hold up at this current pace ?
When the snow melts in Korea and there is good flying weather I suspect events may force the market to burp. But until then, I really like my quarterly statements

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Old 01-25-2018, 11:24 AM   #92
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Anyone else considering a stop loss on their ETFs? I've begun thinking it might be a good idea in case of a sudden crash but then found this article. Lots of "circuit breakers" that I wasn't aware of...

https://www.kitces.com/blog/etf-illi...p-loss-orders/
I don't use stop-losses, they sound great in theory as the market declines it gets triggered, and I'm sure they work sometimes that way.

However, when the market drops suddenly, all sorts of orders to sell flood in, and not enough buyers know, so the price keeps dropping, it blows way past your sell number and finally gets bought.

Even in good times, it happens. Back in 2000 , everyone made money before lunch in the market. A fellow put in a stop loss order on a memory chip stock, went to lunch, and when he came back he found there was a 35% crash in the price for 2 minutes and then it jumped back up higher than previously. Of course his stop loss triggered part of the way down so he ended up selling far too cheap.
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Old 01-25-2018, 12:41 PM   #93
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Companies were already paying well under the new rate according to this Yardeni blog - well under 20% since the start of the previous decade.

Dr. Ed's Blog: Corporate Taxes: Facts vs Fiction

So its not clear to me that there is going to be a massive increase in profits.

Yet a massive increase in profits had already been factored in by the huge market rally of 1997. The reality will come to light over the next few quarters/couple of years. The usual pattern is buy the rumor, sell the news. Expectations are incredibly high.
The blog misses the point by confounding average tax rates with marginal tax rates. By definition, any increase (or decrease) in profits is happening at the margins.
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Old 01-25-2018, 12:44 PM   #94
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The blog misses the point by confounding average tax rates with marginal tax rates. By definition, any increase (or decrease) in profits is happening at the margins.
He also never explains the gap he identified between SEC-reported tax burdens and federal corporate tax revenues. If real there must be a reason.

Overall a very weak article.
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