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Old 01-07-2018, 07:27 PM   #41
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+1 agree with ERD50. I respect [emoji110] choice to invest how you wish, but by exchanging ideas like, for example, I this post I hope a) learn something new for myself and/or b) somebody can learn something new from me, happy new year [emoji324]
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Old 01-07-2018, 07:36 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Check those figures, they make no sense to me.

BND is paying a div of ~ 2.5% (maybe a bit less in previous years), so if the NAV was -2.9%, the total return would be much higher than -2.1%, and two different total return calculators showed BND to be > 9% positive for the past 5 year period.

But OK, in a rising interest rate environment, a total bond fund has not done well. It's there to provide some stability and rebalancing against the more volatile equity portion. Of course, it would be nice for its NAV to be up as well, but we don't always get what we want.




See above. And per my sources, it doubled in just 5 years, and went up by 2.4x in 10 years (including the nasty, nasty 2008 plunge). Are you including divs? They are money too.



Well, a 60/40 blend, not even rebalancing gave a 1.96x increase over 10 years (including the nasty, nasty 2008 plunge). That's about as easy as it gets.

And it sure doesn't seem to be easy for the average Joe/Joan to find a manager with a track record that is better than that.

-ERD50
I reviewed this on Yahoo finance. I mean no disrespect or anything of the sort. I am truly interested in learning the marketable security piece. As a result of your post, two days ago I put the symbols in a spread sheet to investigate further with the reason being to avoid the fidelity management fee.

Perhaps I'm using the wrong tools, so I would be interested in the total return calculator you used. and how to properly analyze.

Annual Total Return (%) History
Year
BNDCategory
2017
3.58%N/A
2016
2.57%N/A
2015
0.39%0.41%
2014
5.96%5.68%
2013
-2.14%-1.86%
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Old 01-07-2018, 08:52 PM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Luck_Club View Post
I reviewed this on Yahoo finance. I mean no disrespect or anything of the sort. I am truly interested in learning the marketable security piece. As a result of your post, two days ago I put the symbols in a spread sheet to investigate further with the reason being to avoid the fidelity management fee.

Perhaps I'm using the wrong tools, so I would be interested in the total return calculator you used. and how to properly analyze.

Annual Total Return (%) History
Year
BNDCategory
2017
3.58%N/A
2016
2.57%N/A
2015
0.39%0.41%
2014
5.96%5.68%
2013
-2.14%-1.86%
Yahoo data works OK, but enter the time frame and just use the start end values on the 'historical data' tab. Use "adjusted" to show the effect of reinvested divs. A while back, the 'adjusted' seemed to only work if you downloaded the data to a spreadsheet, but it seems OK for me now (but I also switched from Chromium to FireFox browser). But it's obvious, adjusted just was the same as NAV when I saw the problem.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BND/history?p=BND

Here's the values I got for NAV:

(81.26 ∕ 83.73) − 1 ≈ −0.029499582 ; matches your ~ -2.9%

but using 'adjusted' I got:

81.26 ∕ 74.32 ≈ 1.09338 ; so ~ 9.3%

A couple tools I use:

PerfCharts | Free Charts | StockCharts.com

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio

-ERD50
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Old 01-08-2018, 06:19 AM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Yahoo data works OK, but enter the time frame and just use the start end values on the 'historical data' tab. Use "adjusted" to show the effect of reinvested divs. A while back, the 'adjusted' seemed to only work if you downloaded the data to a spreadsheet, but it seems OK for me now (but I also switched from Chromium to FireFox browser). But it's obvious, adjusted just was the same as NAV when I saw the problem.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BND/history?p=BND

Here's the values I got for NAV:

(81.26 ∕ 83.73) − 1 ≈ −0.029499582 ; matches your ~ -2.9%

but using 'adjusted' I got:

81.26 ∕ 74.32 ≈ 1.09338 ; so ~ 9.3%

A couple tools I use:

PerfCharts | Free Charts | StockCharts.com

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio

-ERD50
Thank you the tools I've added them to the spread sheet.

I now see the correct adjusted value. I'm learning.

Thought about this exchange some more last night. My interest in adviser vs doing it myself, is compounded by some bad picks early in my investing career (3 went to zero), and my relatively good performance with investing in real estate (which offers total control). All of my gains or luck in marketable securities have happened in the past 10 years. The first 10 years were blah. In addition my wife has a TIAA/CREFF 50/50 fund, which hasn't really done much in 20 years.

So I'm exploring continuing forward with the do it yourself approach vs adviser route. My thinking is that an adviser should be re balancing according to macro economic trends to minimize risk and maximize gains just like an individual would do. I'm speaking with 2 different % of assets type advisers and 1 fee only adviser over the next couple of months.

My distaste of bonds is not because I truly dislike them, I just think as a macro economic trend the tide is against them at this point. Move the yield higher in a flat or falling interest rate environment, and I'm all in on bonds.

One final note with regard to adviser vs do it yourself. In my particular case DW shows no interest in investments and is easily mislead. So that lends itself more to having some independent adviser for at least some of the money in case something happens to me.
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Old 01-08-2018, 08:06 AM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Luck_Club View Post
Thank you the tools I've added them to the spread sheet.

I now see the correct adjusted value. I'm learning. ...
Glad it could help. I've learned a lot from others on this forum, I'm pretty sure those two total return sites were from here too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Luck_Club View Post
... Thought about this exchange some more last night. My interest in adviser vs doing it myself, is compounded by some bad picks early in my investing career (3 went to zero), ...
That's a psychology I've seen a few times. Someone has a bad experience with something, and rather than analyze what went wrong, and see if it makes sense to 'fix it', they just shun it. Sometimes that's the right thing to do, and sometimes an adjustment is all that's needed to get back on a positive track.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Luck_Club View Post
... and my relatively good performance with investing in real estate (which offers total control). All of my gains or luck in marketable securities have happened in the past 10 years. The first 10 years were blah. In addition my wife has a TIAA/CREFF 50/50 fund, which hasn't really done much in 20 years.

So I'm exploring continuing forward with the do it yourself approach vs adviser route. My thinking is that an adviser should be re balancing according to macro economic trends to minimize risk and maximize gains just like an individual would do. ... My distaste of bonds is not because I truly dislike them, I just think as a macro economic trend the tide is against them at this point. Move the yield higher in a flat or falling interest rate environment, and I'm all in on bonds..
But it doesn't seem that we can count on finding someone that can follow macro (or micro) trends well enough to bring an advantage. If they could, those studies would show it.

And I don't disagree with the view of bonds - we know they won't do well in a rising rate environment. But it seems the masses have missed the timing of that rate rise. And I don't think of bonds so much in terms of performance, but as that buffer that I can draw on if stocks take a big dive. So I just pretty much stick to my AA.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Luck_Club View Post
... One final note with regard to adviser vs do it yourself. In my particular case DW shows no interest in investments and is easily mislead. So that lends itself more to having some independent adviser for at least some of the money in case something happens to me.
Thanks for bringing that up. With the new year, it's a good time for me to focus and stop procrastinating, and update a simple set of instructions for DW. But an FA that understands and can be trusted to just do a simple index based plan could be the right choice for some.

My instruction sheet will show a switch from our current situation to my somewhat modest non-cola survivor benefits, her cola-lite modest pension, and survivor SS for her. And then a broad outline of expenses.

My investments are down to just a couple broad-based index funds (and some BRK in the taxable account to keep div income low for now). And after the pension SS, there shouldn't be much to withdraw, and with RMDs, more than enough.

Even though she has no interest in this financial stuff, she's plenty smart enough to grasp a plan like that if spelled out, and more if she had the interest.

OK, I'm gonna go work on that - NOW, I gotta stop procrastinating (and posting!) - ERD50
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Old 01-09-2018, 11:22 AM   #46
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Had an interesting afternoon. My parents for some reason had IRA accounts at Waddell Reed in addition to Fidelity.

So we went in to sign for rolling over my father's IRA into my mother's IRA account.

The advisor there sensed there was more money and tried to get us to move more funds to invest with him.

If anything, my plan after the rollover is to move the IRA to VG, because they're charging $18 a year or quarter for an IRA and all they have in those accounts is a single fund.

He showed me this Sabrient UUT fund, which has been outperforming the S&P supposedly with a baker's dozen of stocks since 2008 or 2009.

These guys are pretty aggressive about their 1%.
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Old 01-09-2018, 11:28 AM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by explanade View Post
...

He showed me this Sabrient UUT fund, which has been outperforming the S&P supposedly with a baker's dozen of stocks since 2008 or 2009.

These guys are pretty aggressive about their 1%.
But was he showing people that fund in 2008 and 2009? It's easy to pick one of the relatively few outperforming funds... in hindsight.

-ERD50
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