Financial "gurus" who don't suck

[nun]

Building off the Kiyorsaki thread, are there any financial self help gurus that you like?
I'd give a vote for Jonathan Pond who shows up on PBS pledge drives and actually
gives advice, even recommends a few funds.

[saluki9]

Jonathan Clements from the WSJ

I think he does a pretty good job with his column and his books aren't bad either.

That being said, I've exchanged some e-mails with him over the past couple years and he isn't the nicest of people

[tryan]

Been a subscriber to Brinker's Marketimer. *He's made a couple great calls (out in Jan 2000; back in in March 2003). *But is by no means perfect (tried to time QQQ ~2001 at around 84 ... it dropped 50%).

But the good has been better than the bad.

[Dawg52]

hmmmmmmmm.....let me see. That is a tough one. I use to follow Tim Middleton on cnbc's website as he gave pretty good investment for retirees. But earlier this year he decided that it was time to recommend a strategy of market timing. I'm sure there are many that practice this strategy with success but I don't think it is a good one for the average investor. I guess it is hard for these guys to come up with something new to write about every week. But when they do a complete turn around from previous articles, they lose their credibility.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P149325.asp

[REWahoo]

I think Scott Burns is not bad when it comes to generally sound financial advice plus reasonable lifestyle choces. Example: His column today "5 Steps to a Pleasant Retirement" offers basic advice on the 'personal actions' to insure a comfortable retirement...

1. Eliminate debt
2. Know what you are spending
3. Put your posessions in good condition
4. Do the same for yourself
5. Make sure your income exceeds your outgo

[samclem]

My favorites writers/advisors aren't exactly gurus--they don't offer advice on the latest hot sector, etc. Just plain old dull asset alocation, etc.

- William Bernstein http://www.efficientfrontier.com/
- Frank Armstrong http://www.investorsolutions.com/
- Larry Swedrow

[audreyh1]

I learned a great deal from Frank Armstrong's web site when I first got started.

I also learned a great deal from www.morningstar.com.

Right now I mostly follow the Economic Research Cycle Institute (ECRI) for their uncanny ability to predict business cycles and inflation. They can only "see" 6 months out, but that is pretty useful. You can pick up a few nuggets from their press quotes - http://www.businesscycle.com/pressquotes.php

I'm occasionally interested in what Ed Yardeni has to say. I also follow Tom Crescenzi (bond guru) on www.realmoney.com.

Audrey

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 Right now I mostly follow the Economic Research Cycle Institute (ECRI) for their uncanny ability to predict business cycles and inflation.* They can only "see" 6 months out, but that is pretty useful.* You can pick up a few nuggets from their press quotes - http://www.businesscycle.com/pressquotes.php Audrey

Audrey, do you subscribe to one of their services? I took their low end service for individuals for a year, and liked it. But they upped rates to $169 I think, so I didn't re-up.

Still, if they do accurately tell you when to expect a recession, it would be cheap at even a higher price.

Ha

[larry]

Jane Bryant Quinn, the goddess of cash. I'd put my 2 cents in her wallet anytime

[d]

i'm familiar with most of the names mentioned so far, and concurr that they most oftern give sound adivce ... Kiyosaki does not; indeed his advice would have negative impact on most folks portfolios.

[slepyhed]

David Bach, the automatic millionaire guy. His gimmick is to advise us to automate our savings.

He also covers all the standard advice: LBYM, emergency fund, invest your savings, etc. The whole automatic savings thing is pretty straight forward, so he's got to fill up the rest of his book with something. And then he just retreads the same advice over and over again in different books and seminars and everything else. Hey, the guy has to make a buck somehow.

Anyway, setting up automatic savings worked wonders for me, so that's why I say he goes on the guru list. That plus he doesn't give any blatently bad advice.

[haha]

Terry Savage, who writes for the Chicago Sun-Times. Not exactly a guru, since she doesn't tell you what to do. She does deliver timely heads-ups on changing laws, products, etc., as well as answer readers' questions.

Ha

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by HaHa Audrey, do you subscribe to one of their services? I took their low end service for individuals for a year, and liked it. But they upped rates to $169 I think, so I didn't re-up. Still, if they do accurately tell you when to expect a recession, it would be cheap at even a higher price. Ha

No - I do the freebie stuff and keep track of the weekly/monthly numbers myself.* Then I read the press quotes which usually give away their outlook pretty clearly.* They used to provide more stuff for free.* I actually would be willing to pay up to say $10 bucks a month, but I find their fees just too steep.* So I glean what I can, and so far it's been OK.

I like real high level macro stuff and make very few investing decisions each year, so they are a good match for me.

Anirivan Banerji occasionally posts an essay on www.thestreet.com and it's made available to the free section in a timely manner.* This is usually the best stuff as it gives a lot of background/context.* He only posts 2 or 3 times a year.

These guys nailed the 2001 recession cold.* In late 1999, spring 2000 they warned that the US economy was vulnerable to shocks, that the Fed had raised interest rates too far, and that the current spike in oil prices looked like it would shock the economy.* It was just amazing to watch it unfold afterwards.

They proclaimed loudly last year that Katrina and Rita would NOT cause problems for the US economy, and they were right on the money.* It was a good investing opportunity.

Right now they are forecasting a definite slowdown (and prolonged), but don't yet see a recession (and don't feel one is imminent).* They are forecasting heightened inflation pressures, but that inflation pressures have eased somewhat.* They say too early to tell which way inflation will go.* It's certainly not out of control or anything, but still elevated.

Their outlook colors my macro view more than anyone else and I usually act on it when I do my occasional rebalancing or when I have some extra cash to put to work.* For example, if the market is ramping up, but ECRI says a slowdown is imminent, I get much more conservative in my investing.* Conversely, if the market is selling off in anticipation of a recession, but ECRI says not to expect one, I know it's a great buying opportunity.

They've been forecasting the slowdown for quite a while and that inflation pressures had already peaked (for the near future - although they are starting to creep up again).* For that reason, this spring when bonds sold off really bad, after waiting almost two years I felt safe bringing my bond allocation up to where is should be for the long term.* So far (knock on wood) that's been a winning move.

I'm now hoping the market will get scared about a recession soon so that I can have another equity buying (rebalancing) opportunity.

Right now it doesn't seem as if the market is taking this slowdown very seriously.* The bond market sure is, but the stock market hasn't sold off like you would expect.* At some point the stock market is very likely to catch the flu - I guess it's just a matter of waiting.

The fact that ECRI can only "see" out 6 months is important to understand.* Any prediction they issue means "within the next 6 months".* The world might change completely 12 months out, etc.

Well, anyway, I hope these are some good real world examples from me.

Audrey

[MasterBlaster]

Audrey1:

Perhaps their model is somewhat superior to others.

However I woudn't bet the farm on what they have to say or what anyone else says either.

Anyone who claims that they can predict future behavior just isn't too believable.

Perhaps the best indicator, in spite of all it's problems and issues, is the market itself as a predictor of future economic activity.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MasterBlaster Audrey1: Perhaps their model is somewhat superior to others. However I woudn't bet the farm on what they have to say or what anyone else says either. Anyone who claims that they can predict future behavior just isn't too believable.

Betting what farm?* We all have an economic outlook.* I find their model helps me develop mine.* When the markets are predicting doom and gloom or conversely euphoria, it's useful to have a "check" and decide whether there is a buying or selling opportunity at present.* It really helps tune out the daily market noise.

Yes, I know a strict asset allocator/rebalancer can ignore all this economic outlook stuff, but I find it helps guide me to take action and go ahead and rebalance or wait.

I fell out of the strict rebalancer camp when I found I could NOT bring myself to add to bonds at 1-3% interest rates.* An historical extreme.* So obviously I do some timing as I make (very infrequent) finetunes to my portfolio.* It actually helps me most when I have new cash to add.

My personal experience has been that the market itself is a very poor predictor of future economic activity.* Maybe because it predicts something completely different every week or month.

A superior model is useful.

Audrey

[cons]

Ray Lucia gives some sound advice.

he has a daily radio show here in new york. very informative.

he also has a book called 'Buckets of money, how to retire in comfort and safety'.



you can listen to archives of the show here:

http://www.businesstalkradio.net/wee...hives/rl.shtml


good listening!!

[spideyrdpd]

In some regards they all suck, but that doesnt mean you cant learn something from many of them. Although I hate the pay off your debt guys like Ramsey and I am not too fond of Suze.

Andrew Tobias 'everything you need to know book" was very good. I also think the Bryant book was pretty good.
Most of the people who follow the general finance principles seem to be straight from their texts. Have 6 months in an emergency account, pay off your debts buy some funds

[bpp]

Quote:

Originally Posted by DOG52 I use to follow Tim Middleton on cnbc's website as he gave pretty good investment for retirees. But earlier this year he decided that it was time to recommend a strategy of market timing.

That guy is unbelievable. He keeps his own kids' money in Vanguard total market funds, while recommending all sorts of churn to his readers. I remember him saying to stay far away from Japan, just before it took off. Now, after it has had a big run-up, he has started overweighting it, according to your link. : Interestingly, he admits that he is a terrible timer, even as he makes his timing recommendations.

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 Betting what farm? We all have an economic outlook. I find their model helps me develop mine. When the markets are predicting doom and gloom or conversely euphoria, it's useful to have a "check" and decide whether there is a buying or selling opportunity at present. It really helps tune out the daily market noise. A superior model is useful.

Our retirement portfolio just hit a new high today. Batten down the hatches...

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1 No - I do the freebie stuff and keep track of the weekly/monthly numbers myself. Then I read the press quotes which usually give away their outlook pretty clearly.

Thanks Audrey. I appreciate your sharing.

Ha