"FIRE Confessionals in a Bear Market"

[atmsmshr]

Fools like MMM and Samurai are dangerous to folks who want to DIY and lured by their siren call.

Heck - throw Cramer into that pile. And a lot of other talking heads. Raymond James and Ameriprise to boot.

My Cranky meter is pegged high at a time when good people who have listened to some of these clowns and now are looking at the financial abyss.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by luckydude To me it's entertainment. I am "locked down" inside the house all day, so I am desperate for entertainment. One needs to take a break from on-line porn now and then for some alternative entertainment options

Oh, I can understand following it for entertainment. There's a science forum I follow occasionally, and they have a strict "no perpetual motion/free-energy discussions, or debunking non-science-y stuff like flat earth, moon-landing, etc". Their point is, it's never ending, and distracts from real science discussions. I get it. But I actually search out those threads, sometimes they get 7 or 8 posts in before a mod shuts it down, and it is weirdly entertaining.

-ERD50

[Bryan Barnfellow]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 Oh, I can understand following it for entertainment. There's a science forum I follow occasionally, and they have a strict "no perpetual motion/free-energy discussions, or debunking non-science-y stuff like flat earth, moon-landing, etc". Their point is, it's never ending, and distracts from real science discussions. I get it. But I actually search out those threads, sometimes they get 7 or 8 posts in before a mod shuts it down, and it is weirdly entertaining. -ERD50

Or, the rocket he's riding crashes straight into the flat earth. I've wondered, btw, why a rocket? A hot air balloon would have sufficed, no?

-BB

[Chuckanut]

Toss in the Bitcoin advocates who have gone strangely silent these days.

As I write this Bitcoin is under $7000. (Still an amazing price for something that represents nothing, IMO.) A few months ago, it was going to $20,000. And it was a great harbor in the storms of economic uncertainty. It seems to have fallen out of bed starting in February. How did that happen?

[ExFlyBoy5]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gumby Reading that was good reminder of the importance to most people of having a narrative. Virtually everyone enjoys being the hero of their own story. Sadly, the people in the article seemed to prioritize the carefully curated image they presented to the world more than the reality of their actual lives. Now that the illusion is gone, they need to come to grips with the reality. Clearly, it is difficult for some of them.

This is no surprise to me. They all have a product to sell, and they will do that by "playing the part" even if they are lying to everyone (and themselves).

I mentioned in another thread that MMM has been very quiet lately, and I think a lot of people have caught on to his BS. His most recent venture is opening a commercial space that he rents out to others as a co-w*rking space. Dude has a lot of sources of income...which I guess is good since I would assume that his revenue from the blog is down as much as the stock market.

[eleighj416]

These people are whining because their blogging income comes from people buying stuff through their websites. I doubt they have a budget much less know where their money goes, have funds set aside to cover 6 months of expenses and maintain a diverse portfolio. I wonder if these people know what their monthly “hunker down” number is if it takes several years to get out of this issue. As for a lack of health insurance, all I can say is stupid.

[Perryinva]

I wouldn’t call them FIRE faithful. I would call them fair weather FIRE. Whenever you read that their back up plan is “I am young enough to go back to work if need be”, it is obvious they are building on sand. At some point you are no longer young enough, or your skillset is irrelevant or, like now, their ARE no jobs to be had, when you need it the most. And as an early fire, there isn’t even the paltry unemployment benefits. I have never advocated them.

[ER Eddie]

I found the individual "confessions" interesting. I always enjoy it when people drop the facades and come clean. Moments of honesty like that are rare on social media, which of course is dominated by impression management, more so than in real life, where it's commonplace already. I'm sure it happens on this group, too. I can watch it happening in myself, sometimes.

It's unfortunate. Originally it seemed like the internet would be a place where people, because they are anonymous, could more freely talk about their real inner experience, rather than do the impression management shuffle. But now I'd say it's worse than real life.

[Toddtheformeraccountant]

I read mmm original post and I think it turned out to peg it pretty well. The Coronavirus itself has proven to be far from the apocalypse and in fact the reaction to it has caused much more damage than the actual virus. People don’t really understand risk, and the media have every incentive to hype it and you have people of low risk driving in their cars alone with masks....a perfect allegory for the fact that risk is not well understood by the vast majority of People.

[Toddtheformeraccountant]

And I would say that for anyone who calls themselves “fire” whose plan was derailed by this market, was not properly prepared, and they don’t even understand FIRE (at least the FI part) at all. Any fire plan needs to anticipate the possibility of a bear market...in fact the probability of bear markets every 10 years or so.

[Markola]

This is an early retirement forum so I’ve never understood the abundant antipathy to the generation of FIRE bloggers and podcasters commonly displayed here. These authors just advocate being smart with money, often extremely smart. People here can be like those tourists who buy a place at some beach town and suddenly want to forbid others from doing the same.

[UnrealizedPotential]

I personally don't have anything against MMM, on the other hand I have no interest in following him or any of the others. But I am not hostile to any of them, more like indifferent.

[Gumby]

I certainly do not have the view that early retirement is like a castle -- "Phew! Now we're inside and can pull up the drawbridge." No, I believe lots of people can and should join us. My observation from the few times I read their blogs is that FS, MMM and ERE seemed to be selling a lifestyle that they weren't really living. Sure, they're as entitled to mislead people on the internet as much as the next guy, but you can't expect people to feel sorry for them when it all goes up in smoke.

[RobbieB]

I click not on the samauri or the mustache.

[Oz investor]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toddtheformeraccountant And I would say that for anyone who calls themselves “fire” whose plan was derailed by this market, was not properly prepared, and they don’t even understand FIRE (at least the FI part) at all. Any fire plan needs to anticipate the possibility of a bear market...in fact the probability of bear markets every 10 years or so.

i would call myself as a FIRE aspirant ,
i was retired early and still HOPE to become financially independent but was hoping this downturn had happened in 2013 so i was still working and exploited the downturn with better financial resilience , but here i am bruised but not defeated

so yes downturns were factored in to my plans but the timing doesn't appear to be my friend , but i may be wrong in the long term ,
i have so many correct choices by accident so far , maybe i will be lucky again

now the current problem facing members is ... is this over yet , i doubt it but i may be wrong

i am about 95% invested in equities ( about 5% cash ) because the interest-bearing securities were not good value using the risk v. reward ratio

i would rather it was different but that is the game currently ( even the local sovereign debt could turn into junk if China turns it's back on our exports )

where next from here , .... ??



good luck

[daylatedollarshort]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gumby I certainly do not have the view that early retirement is like a castle -- "Phew! Now we're inside and can pull up the drawbridge." No, I believe lots of people can and should join us. My observation from the few times I read their blogs is that FS, MMM and ERE seemed to be selling a lifestyle that they weren't really living. Sure, they're as entitled to mislead people on the internet as much as the next guy, but you can't expect people to feel sorry for them when it all goes up in smoke.

One of the most cringe worthy examples was the couple who supposedly retired in their 30s from middle class incomes to a homestead in Vermont. In reality the husband still had a full-time job making 6 figures with health and dental insurance. Apparently he worked for a nonprofit and his salary information was on some public records.

[grayv]

Quote:

Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort One of the most cringe worthy examples was the couple who supposedly retired in their 30s from middle class incomes to a homestead in Vermont. In reality the husband still had a full-time job making 6 figures with health and dental insurance. Apparently he worked for a nonprofit and his salary information was on some public records.

oh, yeah. I think that's the one I remember. The wife had a blog about retiring at 31 or something like that. had a nice place in the country.

[BeachOrCity]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toddtheformeraccountant I read mmm original post and I think it turned out to peg it pretty well. The Coronavirus itself has proven to be far from the apocalypse and in fact the reaction to it has caused much more damage than the actual virus. People don’t really understand risk, and the media have every incentive to hype it and you have people of low risk driving in their cars alone with masks....a perfect allegory for the fact that risk is not well understood by the vast majority of People.

Your point about people not understanding risk is spot on.

One thing your comment above missed is where we would be if we reacted to this the same as we reacted to the common flu. The scientist say 1-2 million deaths in the USA. Where as flu kills an order of magnitude fewer. This is based on 1% death rate which scientists agree still is highly variable.

One scientist pointed out that if a wide spread stay at home was successful they would be criticized for it as having over reacted.

What we have not gotten done during these past few months now is get all the tests, ppp, and ventilators stocked in sufficient volume so people could resume a somewhat normal life and keep the virus at bay at the same time.

I fear we have kicked the can down the road a bit at great expense without actually equipping ourselves sufficiently to handle what could come.

[Perryinva]

Common sense is not that abundant in the general population. While the basic LBYM and save & invest message is the admirable and long term beneficial thing accomplished, and I don’t begrudge anyone making a living by getting indirectly paid by advertisers for dispensing that advice, as has been mentioned many times here, MMM & FS both present themselves as “anyMan, that can do this” and both are patently misrepresenting themselves for that profit.

I am certainly not a FIRE snob, nor am I gloating at my relative success. But many years ago, when I first heard of FIRE, I did read both of them for a few days. Even back then, long before the latest reveals, it was SO obvious that much of what they said was unrealistic for the majority of common people, and the objective was obviously to increase clicks and yet they had hordes of followers fawning over their teachings as gospel. That is what bothered me most. How many people were duped in to unrealistic expectations and are now paying the price with no job, no income and no HI? Not that I can prove it, but I feel that they prey on people looking for an easy way to not work, and exploit that vulnerability by reinforcing that “anyone can do this” attitude when that is simply absolutely not true.

It takes a certain mindset, confidence, ability and other characteristics to FIRE young successfully. I did not have them, until I was already FI, which was always my plan, but through a long career that carried a pension and decently high salary based on a specialty that I chose specifically for its long term STEM desirability.

It’s not exclusivity to be realistic. Literally everything that can make one FI can be found free in this forum alone. How many posters here would contribute all or most of their FIRE success from primarily reading this forum? Not me, and I am relatively intelligent and level headed.

[Markola]

And how many times do we read on these pages that “early retirement is not one size fits-all”?

I went to college, where I learned to think critically enough to sort out the financial wheat from the chaff to my own satisfaction, regardless of source, and it has worked for me. There are plenty of people around here pushing their breathless day trading moves on this forum, which is verifiably dangerous to one’s wealth but we don’t condemn the entire ER Forum as manipulative nonsense where people come to get duped by fraudsters, do we?

The blogs I read have to advise sensible index fund investing or I’m not interested. I’ve also met some of the larger one’s authors and they are stand up people. To each their own but I spoke up because some blanket statements were made above there is no value in FIRE blogs, which is not my experience. Certain of them are consistently smart and inspiring. YMMV.