Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 01-18-2018, 11:35 AM   #21
Moderator
MBAustin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 7,007
I think the answer also varies by the personal situation of the people involved. For example, health issues or future health concerns, or children with special needs who will need long-term financial support.
__________________
"One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute." William Feather
----------------------------------
ER'd Oct. 2010 at 53. Life is good.
MBAustin is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-18-2018, 11:47 AM   #22
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,026
90%+ was close enough for me to take the risk, if you look at my intro most people on here disagreed, we are now at 97.2%. I figure I have a long time and many factors that will impact the numbers over time and I can adjust.

I have no idea what SS or health care or inflation will look like 20-25 years from now, but I do know I'll still be better off than most of America which is good enough for me.

There is still upside in our plan, a potential for some inheritance, honey is working part-time which funds his pet projects that he thinks will make passive income on eventually, and better tax planning.

You may want to run a lot of scenarios and see how much variation is there.
For example, for my specifics, $20K was the difference between 94.1 and 96.1% as it knocks out 2 failed cycles, so sure no problem I can work and save $20K more and now I'm magically above 95%. We have $100K more before we hit 100%, but again, SS changes or taxes or anything else, that could drop below 100%, I'm not worried about it, so I keep my car one more year or skip a vacation one year, etc.

I often am less worried about the 90/95/100% and more worried about the Expense # being padded enough.
karen1972 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 11:48 AM   #23
Full time employment: Posting here.
Whisper66's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Houston
Posts: 892
I would have accepted 80% for firecslc results using input equal to expected spend rate and other input using realistic but conservative expectations. We had significant ability to cut back expenses from “expected” if needed. That provided the backup plan if market went south on us.
__________________
"Learn everyday, but especially from the experiences of others. It's cheaper! " - John Bogle
Whisper66 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 11:58 AM   #24
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 4,628
I've forgotten the details, but we probably had a 100% success rate if I input target spending that was 150% of what we had actually been spending before retirement.
Independent is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 12:05 PM   #25
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Just_Steve's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Dutchess County
Posts: 1,600
Quote:
Originally Posted by Danmar View Post
I didn’t discover FIRECALC until well after retiring. I figured I would just spend my divs and pension. Probably still a good plan.
+1/2
I didn’t discover FIRECALC until well after retiring. I figured I would just spend my divs and pension. Probably still a good plan. Life is good.
Just_Steve is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 12:16 PM   #26
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Kansas
Posts: 107
I was at 100% using FIRECALC as well as other calculators. With the current increase to the portfolio is says I could spend more. I won't spend more for now as I see that as a "cushion" if there is a pull back in the market.
Sasset is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 12:30 PM   #27
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: Fairfield
Posts: 201
Quote:
Originally Posted by karen1972 View Post
90%+ was close enough for me to take the risk, if you look at my intro most people on here disagreed, we are now at 97.2%. I figure I have a long time and many factors that will impact the numbers over time and I can adjust.

I have no idea what SS or health care or inflation will look like 20-25 years from now, but I do know I'll still be better off than most of America which is good enough for me.

There is still upside in our plan, a potential for some inheritance, honey is working part-time which funds his pet projects that he thinks will make passive income on eventually, and better tax planning.

You may want to run a lot of scenarios and see how much variation is there.
For example, for my specifics, $20K was the difference between 94.1 and 96.1% as it knocks out 2 failed cycles, so sure no problem I can work and save $20K more and now I'm magically above 95%. We have $100K more before we hit 100%, but again, SS changes or taxes or anything else, that could drop below 100%, I'm not worried about it, so I keep my car one more year or skip a vacation one year, etc.

I often am less worried about the 90/95/100% and more worried about the Expense # being padded enough.

I totally agree with this too. What makes me feel better is not the percentage on the firecalc, but the fact that I could easily cut $40k out of our budget and still be able to travel and lead a decent life. In fact, I would almost look forward to this, spending money gives me less and less pleasure, but at 46 with three young kids I am at peak consumption probably.
StuckinCT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 12:43 PM   #28
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 6,755
I was at 100% when I finally FIREd but that was primarily because I stayed several years beyond my FI date (i still liked what I was doing - until I didn't). Just for fun, I occasionally figure my 30 year FIRE % and find I'm still at 100% almost 13 years later. Of course, 30 years for me puts me at age 100, so it's probably an academic exercise at best. Still, I know a lady soon turning 102 and several others in their late 90s. The men, well, not as many, but still quite a few in the early 90s. YMMV
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 12:44 PM   #29
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Major Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: SF East Bay
Posts: 3,722
Most people seem to wait until their portfolio grows to be big enough to support their desired lifestyle, making allowances for SS, pensions, etc. as well. I approached it from the other end. I really didn't feel working any more. It just didn't seem like an attractive option compared to the majestic glory of doing what I wanted, when I wanted. Therefore, I found a way to limit my expenditure to a level that allowed me to feel comfortable with the long-term sustainability of my finances. Many would look at my modest lifestyle and think of it as some type of self-imposed torture, but it's paradise compared to having to get up 5 days a week and do what somebody else tells me to do for 40 hours a week, or more. Why on earth would anyone take that option?

The level I chose was a 2.4% WR. It's now at 2%, not counting future SS, which would seem to be very solidly at 100%, unless the proverbial asteroid hits. Which, of course, it could. I mean, you never know. In the words of Cake, from the song "Sheep Go To Heaven",

"As soon as you're born, you start dying,
So you might as well have a good time."
__________________
Contentedly ER, with 3 furry friends (now, sadly, 1).
Planning my escape to the wide open spaces in my campervan (with my remaining kitty, of course!)
On a mission to become the world's second most boring man.

Major Tom is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 02:47 PM   #30
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Weatherford Texas
Posts: 456
Quote:
Originally Posted by karen1972 View Post

........

I often am less worried about the 90/95/100% and more worried about the Expense # being padded enough.
This right Here!

I have scrubbed my proposed retirement budget several times looking for things I have missed. I believe I am pretty dialed in now including a hobby, travel (modest) and charity budget, and significant healthcare budget leading up to age 65.. Then I add another $4k to that. I will be set up with emergency funds for new roof/well/major plumbing, etc. but what else? I probably won't know unless and until what else pops up.
__________________

Retired June 1, 2018

RE AA 65/35
Ed B is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 03:27 PM   #31
Moderator
Jerry1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 5,622
I guess I'm over 100%. My main retirement tool is the Fidelity retirement planner. In it, it defaults to using a "significantly below average" market as the base assumption. You can change it to "below average" and "average", but I am 100% using the significantly below average assumption. Like others, I was more focused on my expenses and since I padded them, I felt pretty comfortable with the plan. Note, that my comfort level is that I believe I can meet my basic needs - food, housing and healthcare. I've planned for better, but that's all I'm "worried" about. If it gets to where I can't meet my basic needs, we're all going to be in a bit of hurt. Personally, I'm confident we'll do fine.
Jerry1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 03:36 PM   #32
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
flintnational's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Atlanta Suburb
Posts: 1,499
If I include pensions and SS (which we are currently not taking) in firecalc, we are at less than a 2% WR. So, something north of 100%, hopefully.
__________________
"Oh, twice as much ain't twice as good
And can't sustain like one half could
It's wanting more that's gonna send me to my knees" - John Mayer
flintnational is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 03:44 PM   #33
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
USGrant1962's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 1,827
Quote:
Originally Posted by livingalmostlarge View Post
So how low a success rate using the FIRE calculator would you take and pull the trigger?

Were you at 100%? 90%? 80%? Lower?
In FIRECalc I went with 100% but made sure to include Social Security (with a haircut) and some spending cuts when Medicare kicks in and when the go-slow and no-go years arrive.

In the Monte Carlo calculators I want to see >90%. They tend to generate a much wider spread of outcomes than history and mathematically their worst cases will reflect down markets lasting for 40 years. If that happens you have more to worry about than your portfolio!
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged

"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
USGrant1962 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 05:40 PM   #34
Recycles dryer sheets
Lawrence of Suburbia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Newcastle, WA
Posts: 190
FIRECalc gave me 110%
__________________
Don't just do something; stand there!

- Jack Bogle
Lawrence of Suburbia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 08:34 PM   #35
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 555
I was at 100% ....where in Firecalc would it indicate 200% or 150% as some posts have stated? mine said "0 cycles failed" :::confused:::
FREE866 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 08:35 PM   #36
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 48,189
Feel that tug on your leg?
__________________
Numbers is hard

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 08:37 PM   #37
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 555
tug on my leg?
wha?
FREE866 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 08:42 PM   #38
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 48,189
Think about it...
__________________
Numbers is hard

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 08:43 PM   #39
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 555
lol
i'm not sure what you're saying...spit it out!
FREE866 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2018, 08:45 PM   #40
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 48,189
OK...

Quote:
pull (one's) leg
To tease or joke with someone, often by trying to convince him or her of something untrue
https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/pull+leg
__________________
Numbers is hard

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Chart of Withdrawal Rate - Success Rate - Yrs Retired Midpack FIRE and Money 28 10-05-2013 11:02 AM
Happiness leads to success vs Success leads to happiness Midpack Other topics 4 02-06-2012 08:59 AM
100% success at 7% initial withdrawal rate Sam FIRE and Money 30 03-20-2006 10:02 PM
Firecalc success rate. PJ03 FIRE and Money 20 12-15-2005 09:45 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:40 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.