Bikerdude
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Jul 4, 2006
- Messages
- 1,901
This article questions the amount of investment history required to make future return projections. It appears (according to the author) that the FC database is not enough.
Why
"Based on the previous fifty or eighty years’ worth of data, an Englishman in 1910 would have concluded that Britannia would always rule the waves. A Frenchman in 1788 would have concluded that France would always be a monarchy. A Papal advisor in 1515 could have used 1,000 years’ of data to conclude that the Vatican would remain the supreme power in Europe indefinitely. Intelligent men and women did exactly this, in their millions.
This is not a minor point. Bonds issued by the Czarist regime in Russia were considered safe as houses in 1914. Several years later, Lenin stopped payment — forever."
Why
"Based on the previous fifty or eighty years’ worth of data, an Englishman in 1910 would have concluded that Britannia would always rule the waves. A Frenchman in 1788 would have concluded that France would always be a monarchy. A Papal advisor in 1515 could have used 1,000 years’ of data to conclude that the Vatican would remain the supreme power in Europe indefinitely. Intelligent men and women did exactly this, in their millions.
This is not a minor point. Bonds issued by the Czarist regime in Russia were considered safe as houses in 1914. Several years later, Lenin stopped payment — forever."