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florida real estate forecast
Old 12-24-2007, 02:19 PM   #1
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florida real estate forecast

following find study by often newspaper-quoted hank fishkind of fishkind & associates showing florida real estate forecast through 2009. though published in january 2007, prior to the subprime fun, it still might be somewhat relevant as it compares all florida counties with respect to projected population growth, general economy including jobs in each area.

as i retired with downsizing in mind, and as one of my options includes--if florida votes for portablitity of homesteaded "save our homes" values--relocating to a less expensive area, the study brings good news to me as it predicts my area (broward, which is at buildout) going up once the housing cycle again (if ever) reverses while the two areas i'm considering (especially daytona) show declining or flat near futures.

my ideal hope to such scenario would be for the new "save our home" amendment to pass on portability (that would bring my downsized property tax to zero from the current little) and for my area to turn up so i could sell at a fair price and then pick up a 1/2-priced foreclosure in a still-declining or flat area. talk about market timing. hey, it's not as if i didn't get ideally screwed by the bubble.

anyway, here are some quotes for areas of florida i've noticed mentioned on this forum and following that the entire study for your perusal.

dade county (including miami):

The market for existing homes will not behave much different from the new homes market...The existing homes market is expected to cool off slightly, and pricing will remain stable through 2009

broward county (including fort lauderdale):

the market for existing homes has behaved significantly different from that of the new homes market. In response to higher prices and less availability,
existing home sales and prices have increased considerably since 2000. As the new homes market stagnates, both closings and pricings are expected to steadily increase as market begins the upswing of the next housing cycle.

volusia county (including daytona beach):

The market for existing homes will not fare as well as the new homes market. With closings way off their 2005 peak of 16,000 units, volume is expected to increase slightly in 2007 and continually decline through 2009. As a result of the softer market as well as higher mortgage rates, pricing is expected to slip during the forecast horizon.

sarasota county:

The market for existing homes will experience trends similar to the new home marketplace. Closing volumes peaked in 2005 at nearly 14,000 units. Activity will decline to a low point of 7,000 units by 2007 for a modest increase to 8,500 units by 2009. Prices will be flat through 2009

manatte county (including bradenton):

The existing single-family market in Manatee County dropped considerably in 2006. This trend is expected to continue in 2007, but it should stabilize in 2008 and begin to increase by 2009. Existing home prices will remain relatively constant for the next several years

hillsborough county (including tampa):

The market for existing homes saw and will continue to see a considerable drop in closings until 2008. After 2008, the market is expected to rebound but not at a rate high enough to reach the level seen before the drop
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Old 12-24-2007, 02:48 PM   #2
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Thanks Lazy ,
I'm also hopeing for portability .I would like to sell my house in the next two years .My neighborhood is ripe for developement ( a mixture of new & older houses on the water ) .Several homes have already been torn down and two houses built on the lot .I'll probably test the market at some point and see what I could get .I'd really like a smaller maintenance free house in a gated community .My So said "Over my dead body ". So once the market picks up I'll just sprinkle arsenic on his oatmeal !
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Old 12-24-2007, 04:57 PM   #3
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I'm voting for portability. We actually saw our 2007 property tax drop by 6%. Like you, Moemg, we hope to downsize in the next couple of years but thank heavens we don't have to do it just yet. The word on the street here (confirmed by my realtor/DW) is that late 2009 will be the turning point with 2010 seeing prices and sales returning to a sensible level. But none of this is anything but speculation.

When we talk about this we agree that we are sure lucky to have such a nice situation in which to wait it out. Just want to get some cash out of the wholly owned house for FIRE planning purposes but that'll wait.

Oh.. and I'm also reminded how amazing the 7 month Florida winter is -- lovin' it every day. I think there will always be a market for this state, insane as it is in some areas.
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Old 12-31-2007, 10:48 AM   #4
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could be hank's gonna have to revise his forecast...

Vultures Database sees $1B drop - South Florida Business Journal:

The average discount for each of the 5,119 properties in the Vultures Database is $196,208 after sitting on the market for an average of 500 days. The asking price of the average condo is down $150,534 with 506 days on the market. Single-family homes and undeveloped lots are down in asking price an average of $286,784 after being on the market for 488 days....

The company said the barrier islands have seen a smaller percentage decrease in price than the mainland properties. Residential properties on the mainland in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties are down 23 percent, or $187,614, while condos, townhouses, single-family homes and undeveloped lots on the barrier islands are down an average of only 20 percent, or $207,038.
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin

"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
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Old 12-31-2007, 12:45 PM   #5
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The original SOH (save our homes) bill was an ill advised policy option which created the current fiasco.* So is the upcoming vote. If it passes, we will see a real decrease in funding for education and other local services unless the counties increase the millage rate. Most will be forced to do this, so the actual savings will be limited, if any. That is, except for the few poor rural counties who are already at the max allowed millage (10 mills) and still have no revenue.

Don't look to the state to help out county/city funding. The state tax structure is also poorly designed. Funding over the past few years has been dependent on new constuction and real estate stales - all those doc stamps fees. As a result, the state has a $1.5B shortfall in fiscal year 2007-07 and at least $1B projected in fy 2007-08. The revenue stream essentially looks as if the state is in a recession (real estae is, anyway). If an actual recession hits, it will be ugly. In the mean time, the state will continue to do what it has done for the past 10 years - push more costs to the county/city. (See first paragraph)

All of this aside, I do not believe that policy issues (high speed rail, class size, tax structure, amount of pen space for pregnant pigs) belong in the constitution. These are not constitutional issues, but should be addressed through policy and law making. Yea, I know, term limits make it easy for the officials to skirt responsibilities...but it is our responsibility to apply pressure.

*for non-Floridians, this constiutional amendment in early 90s capped property tax increases to 3%, so if property values increased 2%, tax increases stayed in line, but if values increased 10%, tax increase is limited to 3% each year.
I would not have anyone adopt my mode of living...but I would have each one be very careful to find out and pursue his own way, and not his father's or his mother's or his neighbor's instead. Thoreau, Walden
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Old 12-31-2007, 03:49 PM   #6
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I think that SOH (save our homes) is BS. SOH's is the reason out of towners are not moving in large #'s anymore. They almost had a fix with the super exemption that was supposed to be on the ballot on Jan 29th. This would have helped the new comers with the obscene tax they get hit with because of the SOH. But one of the Florida courts knocked it out a few months ago and we are back to square one.

This mess here will only get worse, it's almost a joke. The Governor Crist, makes like a 50K homestead exemption will make this all go away. But the problem is the local governments will just raise the millage rates and take it right back.

Florida real estate is in big trouble.
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