Catching bits and pieces of news, every day, that have to do with National and International availability and cost of food. Since the information seems to dribble out, it might be well to make note of what may be coming. While Americans spend a small part of their budget on food...like 6%, knowing what to expect in the future, could help understand what and why prices may go up, and on which products.
Here are some empirical observations:
-This AM... news... interview with two of largest CA wine producer owners... 40% of all wines bought in the US come from California. The producers were worried about losing entire fields, despite using water saving techniques.
-40% of US fruit and vegetable come from the drought area in the southwest.Because of lack of water and drought, many farmers have either given up, or decided not to plant or fertilize.
- Meat prices to be affected by reduction in herds because grazing lands were too poor and purchased silage etc was too expensive.
- Milk and milk by-products ... cheeses etc. all affected by fewer dairy herds.
- Shrimp prices and availability are going out of sight, according to a restaurant owner friend. Not sure why.
-Grain exports increasing fastest in decades. Crops were good, but between ethanol and exports, even with a good harvest, could be a price increase. a bad harvest might be real trouble.
-Orange blight in Florida... "greening"... going from south to north..
-Meat and cheese prices? could be a factor in the pricing and viability of the largest Fast Food and Specialty Restaurants. Will the customers pay more for casual meals, and will dining out be affected? MacDonalds, Burger King, Pizza, Steak Houses etc..
-There is great volatility in many short term production prices,like chicken and eggs, based on feed costs and weather.
-Organics ... the rise in popularity will drive up the overall food price (BTW... where did the product come from that represents that big increase in the percent of consumer Organic purchases
? Did the farmers just stop using chemical fertilizer? Same with Organic meat?)
-Fish - Regulations about overfishing... Boats going out further - Net laws... pollution.
-Pork prices up 5 to 8% because of PED... disease
-Energy prices... equipment, heat, transportation processing costs up.
Any search for food prices opens up concerns and estimates of a 4 to 6% increase in prices is the norm... and some side issues about health cost increases as fresh fruits and vegetables go out of the reach of poorer families.
Anyway, although this is a doom and gloom post, and won't affect us, here, too much...the trickle down effect can't be good for the economy.
... and to think that this post started out as a warning to buy your wine supply for the next few years, before the prices go up.
Just some things to think about and watch.
Here are some empirical observations:
-This AM... news... interview with two of largest CA wine producer owners... 40% of all wines bought in the US come from California. The producers were worried about losing entire fields, despite using water saving techniques.
-40% of US fruit and vegetable come from the drought area in the southwest.Because of lack of water and drought, many farmers have either given up, or decided not to plant or fertilize.
- Meat prices to be affected by reduction in herds because grazing lands were too poor and purchased silage etc was too expensive.
- Milk and milk by-products ... cheeses etc. all affected by fewer dairy herds.
- Shrimp prices and availability are going out of sight, according to a restaurant owner friend. Not sure why.
-Grain exports increasing fastest in decades. Crops were good, but between ethanol and exports, even with a good harvest, could be a price increase. a bad harvest might be real trouble.
-Orange blight in Florida... "greening"... going from south to north..
-Meat and cheese prices? could be a factor in the pricing and viability of the largest Fast Food and Specialty Restaurants. Will the customers pay more for casual meals, and will dining out be affected? MacDonalds, Burger King, Pizza, Steak Houses etc..
-There is great volatility in many short term production prices,like chicken and eggs, based on feed costs and weather.
-Organics ... the rise in popularity will drive up the overall food price (BTW... where did the product come from that represents that big increase in the percent of consumer Organic purchases
? Did the farmers just stop using chemical fertilizer? Same with Organic meat?)-Fish - Regulations about overfishing... Boats going out further - Net laws... pollution.
-Pork prices up 5 to 8% because of PED... disease
-Energy prices... equipment, heat, transportation processing costs up.
Any search for food prices opens up concerns and estimates of a 4 to 6% increase in prices is the norm... and some side issues about health cost increases as fresh fruits and vegetables go out of the reach of poorer families.
Anyway, although this is a doom and gloom post, and won't affect us, here, too much...the trickle down effect can't be good for the economy.
... and to think that this post started out as a warning to buy your wine supply for the next few years, before the prices go up.
Just some things to think about and watch.
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