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09-24-2008, 05:46 PM
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#81
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmm99
McCain wants to postone the debate. Omaba wants to do it. I agree with Obama.
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Off with his head!
He apparently wants to postpone the Palin-Biden debate scheduled for October 2nd, too. I guess the Governor of Alaska is needed to help negotiate in Washington as well.
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09-24-2008, 07:43 PM
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#82
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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This is a perfect time to have a debate. You wanna go to the show? Well, we've just added "the bailout" to your to-do list...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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09-24-2008, 07:43 PM
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#83
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 2,353
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
Our total debt is not that bad compared to GDP and most other countries in the world.
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That's a valid point. However, the problem as I see it is that the debt just constantly grows, with little thought being paid to the unarguable fact that perpetual deficits are unsustainable. Reverse compound interest is a fearful thing.
Eventually the piper must be paid. Since it will almost certainly be too expensive to do so with 'real' money, the only plausible way out will be rampant inflation: which is going to hurt a lot of people.
__________________
"To know what you prefer, instead of humbly saying Amen to what the world tells you you ought to prefer, is to have kept your soul alive". Robert Louis Stevenson, An Inland Voyage (1878)
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09-24-2008, 07:52 PM
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#84
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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if the deficit is the level of gdp growth or less than it's OK
i'll take a national debt over no national debt anyday
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09-24-2008, 09:32 PM
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#85
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 28,081
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR
This is a perfect time to have a debate. You wanna go to the show? Well, we've just added "the bailout" to your to-do list... 
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Terrific point!
Audrey
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09-25-2008, 08:03 AM
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#86
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,052
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR
This is a perfect time to have a debate. You wanna go to the show? Well, we've just added "the bailout" to your to-do list... 
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I look at it as, I'd rather wait until these guys knew what the heck was in the final bill. What good is a debate over what may never happen?
Besides, if they're not back in Congress, won't people be questioning how well they're doing their current job?
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09-25-2008, 11:04 AM
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#87
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 2,353
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
i'll take a national debt over no national debt anyday
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Wow.
Well, enjoy!
__________________
"To know what you prefer, instead of humbly saying Amen to what the world tells you you ought to prefer, is to have kept your soul alive". Robert Louis Stevenson, An Inland Voyage (1878)
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09-25-2008, 11:09 AM
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#88
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by . . . Yrs to Go
Off with his head!
He apparently wants to postpone the Palin-Biden debate scheduled for October 2nd, too. I guess the Governor of Alaska is needed to help negotiate in Washington as well.
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I guess Joe Biden resigned his Senate seat, I didn't see it in the news, though. Is there any legitimate reason we wouldn't want ALL 100 Senators in Washington DC to work on a bill that might be one of the most important in a half century? Some folks on here sure confuse me........
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
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09-25-2008, 11:11 AM
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#89
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmm99
McCain wants to postone the debate. Omaba wants to do it. I agree with Obama.
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Yeah, but Obama thinks January 20th, 2009 is in 40 days...
Maybe we need someone with a better handle on their calendar.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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09-25-2008, 11:20 AM
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#90
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 4,898
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
Our total debt is not that bad compared to GDP and most other countries in the world.
compared to the initial RTC estimates in 1990, $700 billion in 2008 dollars is pocket change. back then the deficit was a lot higher as a percentage of GDP.
RTC wasn't a magical fix either. Back then Citi almost went belly up in 1994 and home prices were flat for most of the decade with a lot of 1987-1990 buyers being upside down until 2000 or so.
the goal is to make any downturn controlled and gradual so that asset prices don't go in crazy directions very fast.
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Foreign investors own 25% of our external debt. This is a problem.
From United States public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
". . .the U.S. Treasury statistics indicate that, at the end of 2006, foreigners held 44% of federal debt held by the public. [36] About 66% of that 44% was held by the central banks of other countries, in particular the central banks of Japan and China. In total, lenders from Japan and China held 47% of the foreign-owned debt. [37] This exposure to potential financial or political risk should foreign banks stop buying Treasury securities or start selling them heavily was addressed in a recent report issued by the Bank of International Settlements which stated, 'Foreign investors in U.S. dollar assets have seen big losses measured in dollars, and still bigger ones measured in their own currency. While unlikely, indeed highly improbable for public sector investors, a sudden rush for the exits cannot be ruled out completely.'"
A sudden rush for the exits. There is the doomsday scenario that Paulson, et al., do not dare to mention for fear that it's already happening.
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09-25-2008, 11:22 AM
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#91
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 4,898
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny
Yeah, but Obama thinks January 20th, 2009 is in 40 days...
Maybe we need someone with a better handle on their calendar.
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He was referring to election day, which is actually quite accurate since GW has become less than a lame duck, more like Mr. Zombie.
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09-25-2008, 11:28 AM
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#92
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 2,288
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tmm99
McCain wants to postone the debate. Omaba wants to do it. I agree with Obama.
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I agree with McCain. Maybe we should have a debate about the debate?
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09-25-2008, 11:36 AM
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#93
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,706
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oldbabe
Foreign investors own 25% of our external debt. This is a problem.
From United States public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
". . .the U.S. Treasury statistics indicate that, at the end of 2006, foreigners held 44% of federal debt held by the public. [36] About 66% of that 44% was held by the central banks of other countries, in particular the central banks of Japan and China. In total, lenders from Japan and China held 47% of the foreign-owned debt. [37] This exposure to potential financial or political risk should foreign banks stop buying Treasury securities or start selling them heavily was addressed in a recent report issued by the Bank of International Settlements which stated, 'Foreign investors in U.S. dollar assets have seen big losses measured in dollars, and still bigger ones measured in their own currency. While unlikely, indeed highly improbable for public sector investors, a sudden rush for the exits cannot be ruled out completely.'"
A sudden rush for the exits. There is the doomsday scenario that Paulson, et al., do not dare to mention for fear that it's already happening.
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I read on Bloomberg last night that the Chinese are calling for a meeting with other Asian central banks to make sure that none of them dumps their treasuries and damage the other's asset values. They have much to lose in a sudden drop in treasury values (Asian central banks hold several trillion dollars in treasuries, don't they?), and they are pretty nervous... The best is for everyone to keep drinking the kool aid and believe in the resilience of the great US of A! Of course they will probably buy fewer treasuries going forward and spread their money around as to minimize their risk... But I think it will be a gradual process.
__________________
46 years old, single, no kids. Exited the job market in 2010 (age 36). Have lived solely off my investments since 2015 (age 41). No pensions.
Current AA: real estate 64% / equities 10% / fixed income 16% / cash 10%
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09-25-2008, 11:46 AM
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#94
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oldbabe
Foreign investors own 25% of our external debt. This is a problem.
From United States public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
". . .the U.S. Treasury statistics indicate that, at the end of 2006, foreigners held 44% of federal debt held by the public. [36] About 66% of that 44% was held by the central banks of other countries, in particular the central banks of Japan and China. In total, lenders from Japan and China held 47% of the foreign-owned debt. [37] This exposure to potential financial or political risk should foreign banks stop buying Treasury securities or start selling them heavily was addressed in a recent report issued by the Bank of International Settlements which stated, 'Foreign investors in U.S. dollar assets have seen big losses measured in dollars, and still bigger ones measured in their own currency. While unlikely, indeed highly improbable for public sector investors, a sudden rush for the exits cannot be ruled out completely.'"
A sudden rush for the exits. There is the doomsday scenario that Paulson, et al., do not dare to mention for fear that it's already happening.
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it's not that easy, reason they hold the debt is for their currencies to be pegged to the dollar. if they let their currencies float than it may cause their products to go up in price and hurt their economies.
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09-25-2008, 11:47 AM
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#95
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Milton
Wow.
Well, enjoy!
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a lot of non-profits keep their assets in t bills along with MM's using t bills as short term investments. no national debt means no t bills and a lot of problems for the above
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09-25-2008, 11:49 AM
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#96
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 4,898
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I agree with both of your replies, FireDreamer and Bundy, but those reasons do not stop the foreign lenders from putting the screws to Paulson, in fact, give them more reason to do so.
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Fundamental Agreement in Bailout Reached
09-25-2008, 12:03 PM
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#97
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 655
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Fundamental Agreement in Bailout Reached
A fundamental agreement has been reached ahead of High-Level Meeting:
Agreement Reached on Bailout Ahead of High-Level Meeting - WSJ.com
__________________
"I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately... and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived."
--Henry David Thoreau
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09-25-2008, 12:04 PM
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#98
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,706
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oldbabe
I agree with both of your replies, FireDreamer and Bundy, but those reasons do not stop the foreign lenders from putting the screws to Paulson, in fact, give them more reason to do so.
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Oh, I agree with you, the Chinese are probably leaning heavily on Paulson, and I would be too if I had half a trillion dollars in the balance! A chinese official said that they were in contact with the US treasury every couple of days to monitor the situation... I bet you it's a lot more frequent than that! I was just commenting on the "sudden rush for the exit" possibility.
The best scenario would be for Americans to start saving more so that we can finance more of our own debt (It's of course unpopular with people, as we know, but the politicians don't like the idea either because it would dampen GDP growth). America doesn't only need more energy independence, America also needs more financial independence IMO (It doesn't mean we should necessarily strive for no national debt). But I haven't heard a single politician talk about that. Somehow, counting on the Saudis for oil = bad, counting on the Chinese for money = not so bad.
I also think that the latest turn of events has put a massive nail in a few coffins... Lower taxes, national healthcare, 100 years in Iraq, yeah I really don't think so. If foreigners start buying fewer treasuries, I think that it might be the signal that we are getting close to our credit limit.
__________________
46 years old, single, no kids. Exited the job market in 2010 (age 36). Have lived solely off my investments since 2015 (age 41). No pensions.
Current AA: real estate 64% / equities 10% / fixed income 16% / cash 10%
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09-25-2008, 01:09 PM
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#99
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oldbabe
He was referring to election day, which is actually quite accurate since GW has become less than a lame duck, more like Mr. Zombie.
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I was just foolin around, but what he said was "Americans deserve to hear from the man that will be in charge of the mess in approximately 40 days"
The president elect isnt in charge of anything until January 20th.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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09-25-2008, 01:12 PM
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#100
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 4,898
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Here's an interesting analysis by a contrarian blogger that I read now and then. His whole essay is interesting but I've only included his conclusion below.
charles hugh smith-Weblog and Essays
"...the threat is the Chinese and Japanese central banks will no longer prop up the U.S. bond markets by buying T-bills and other dollar-denominated debt. Well, as the global recession deepens, they won't have as many dollars anyway, so that decline is inevitable.
And if Congress is spineless enough to pass the bailout, then the dollar falling will wipe out hundreds of billions of value from the $1 trillion+ Chinese and Japanese hoards of T-Bills and other debt. "
Also, another excellent analysis of what "might" happen if there was no bailout is here
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/
His conclusion:
It is like we are in Wonderland and doing the Red Queen’s Race:
“Well, in our country,” said Alice, still panting a little, “you’d generally get to somewhere else - if you run very fast for a long time, as we’ve been doing.”
“A slow sort of country!” said the Queen. “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”
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