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Glad I have cash and stable value
02-03-2014, 12:38 PM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,867
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Glad I have cash and stable value
Only one month from ER and I'm remarkably sanguine about this correction thanks to having 7 years of spending in stable value and cash.
__________________
“So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”
Current AA: 75% Equity Funds / 15% Bonds / 5% Stable Value /2% Cash / 3% TIAA Traditional
Retired Mar 2014 at age 52, target WR: 0.0%,
Income from pension and rent
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02-03-2014, 01:06 PM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Bay Area
Posts: 2,741
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A correction was long overdue in my opinion. Corrections are not a bad thing . 
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I did it .... my way.
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02-03-2014, 01:17 PM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 3,938
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by nun
Only one month from ER and I'm remarkably sanguine about this correction thanks to having 7 years of spending in stable value and cash.
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+1
Along with an AA that one can sleep with at night, it makes it easier to ride these things out.
__________________
FIREd date: June 26, 2018 - wwwwwwhat a rush!
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02-03-2014, 01:22 PM
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#4
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 45,299
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nun
Only one month from ER and I'm remarkably sanguine about this correction thanks to having 7 years of spending in stable value and cash.
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I have more years than that in cash and TSP G Fund, although rubbing it in while people are losing money is a little distasteful somehow.  I would imagine that you feel the same.
I know this conservative AA is one that I can stick with no matter what, since it was well tested in 2008-2009. I probably didn't make as much from 2010-2013 as I could have.
__________________
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61.
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02-03-2014, 01:33 PM
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#5
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland again!
Posts: 35,403
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I sleep pretty well regardless  . This still looks to me like run of the mill volatility, nothing to write home about. If anything, holding cash right now is unsettling, because it's not obvious when and how to invest it.
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02-03-2014, 01:48 PM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 17,175
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
I sleep pretty well regardless . This still looks to me like run of the mill volatility, nothing to write home about. If anything, holding cash right now is unsettling, because it's not obvious when and how to invest it. |
+1. How soon some forget how well we did last year. If you were mostly cash going back a year or more, you're way worse off than most any balanced AA. YMMV
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 30% bond funds / 20% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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02-03-2014, 01:54 PM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Bay Area
Posts: 2,741
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... and there are 11 more months to go before the year ends. At the end of the year, most are predicting that the equity will be up. My opinion is, it will be up albeit in single digit range.
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I did it .... my way.
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02-03-2014, 02:21 PM
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#8
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 58
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I didn't interpret the OP as recommending a high cash AA or even saying they moved into cash.... I think they were just reinforcing that regardless of your AA strategy, as you approach retirement it is comforting to have enough in cash/sv to withstand the volatility.
And i say... Amen.
(of course you could argue the original title was designed to get everyone riled up!)
__________________
I reserve the right to change my mind as I get smarter.
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02-03-2014, 02:22 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,867
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Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
I have more years than that in cash and TSP G Fund, although rubbing it in while people are losing money is a little distasteful somehow. I would imagine that you feel the same.
I know this conservative AA is one that I can stick with no matter what, since it was well tested in 2008-2009. I probably didn't make as much from 2010-2013 as I could have. |
Well my 60/40 AA means that I'm losing money overall.....I've just got 7 years of myopia.
__________________
“So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”
Current AA: 75% Equity Funds / 15% Bonds / 5% Stable Value /2% Cash / 3% TIAA Traditional
Retired Mar 2014 at age 52, target WR: 0.0%,
Income from pension and rent
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02-03-2014, 02:27 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 48,229
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Louis2
(of course you could argue the original title was designed to get everyone riled up!)
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...which is always what happens when the market has a drop. The "I told you so" crowd come out of the woodwork like cockroaches with the lights off.
__________________
Numbers is hard
Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
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02-03-2014, 02:30 PM
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#11
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: in the sticks
Posts: 464
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack
+1. How soon some forget how well we did last year. If you were mostly cash going back a year or more, you're way worse off than most any balanced AA. YMMV
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I am one of these. Sadly, I 'knew' the market was going to crash and shorted the S&P all year (2013) with a portion of my investments and held a lot of cash because i was fearful of the 'big one' right before i retired. I was wrong. Sure I am finally getting back a bit of what I left on the table but at significant opportunity (educational) expense. Soon I will re-enter the market at more reasonable levels, into a ETF strategy developed with knowledge from this board. Painful lesson, but not too late to recover.
Thanks to all of you who have imparted your knowledge to the uneducated.
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02-03-2014, 02:35 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,300
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Been investing since 1974, just another day in the market. Soon the talking heads will find some way to link the Bronco's loss yesterday to the sell-off today. Does reversion to the mean, ring a bell anyone ? Yes, those in marginal situations might want to be concerned but in the over all scheme of things, it's no big deal what the market is doing. After last year's run, I'd be surprised if there wasn't a bit of profit taking.
__________________
"The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Ezra Solomon
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02-03-2014, 02:56 PM
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#13
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Cape Canaveral
Posts: 93
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First year FIRE for me.
Im 70/25/5.
This doesn't even make me flinch.....
Cheers everyone!
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02-03-2014, 03:03 PM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,517
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shasta
First year FIRE for me.
Im 70/25/5.
This doesn't even make me flinch.....
Cheers everyone!
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I hope there's a pension to compliment this AA
__________________
Took SS at 62 and hope I live long enough to regret the decision.
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02-03-2014, 03:31 PM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: DFW Area (Tx)
Posts: 4,828
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Because we will have high spending the next 3 years kids (2 kids in college) and will be withdrawing a relatively higher percentage of our portfolio (and then our spending will basically halve at that point) we set aside part of our 55/45 portfolio shortly after the beginning of the year (before the drop) and put it in cash or near cash so that we would be less vulnerable to a large drop in the next 2 years. I don't have any reason to think this "correction" will be such a large drop, but I definitely do feel better with having done the set aside.
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02-03-2014, 03:38 PM
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#16
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Cape Canaveral
Posts: 93
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Why is that? (Don't think I'm looking a concern horse in the mouth.)
Firecalc gives me 96%
Vanguard gave me 100% success with my AA.
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02-03-2014, 03:41 PM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 17,175
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shasta
First year FIRE for me.
Im 70/25/5.
This doesn't even make me flinch.....
Cheers everyone |
foxfire: Why would your risk tolerance be appropriate/suitable for anyone else, especially a total stranger (presumably)?
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 30% bond funds / 20% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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02-03-2014, 04:39 PM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 3,938
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne
Soon the talking heads will find some way to link the Bronco's loss yesterday to the sell-off today.
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They actually did a few days ago - the old Super Bowl "indicator"
Super Bowl Indicator: Why a Broncos win will be better for stocks | Breakout - Yahoo Finance
"...the Super Bowl theory, which unequivocally has shown that when an NFC team wins, the S&P 500 has rallied an average of 10% in the ensuing 11 months and was positive 80% of the time, which is more than double the 4% gains that follow an AFC victory"
"...Specifically, following the Bronco’s last four Super Bowl losses, the market averaged gains of only two percent"
__________________
FIREd date: June 26, 2018 - wwwwwwhat a rush!
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02-03-2014, 05:00 PM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Ventura County
Posts: 1,300
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I know we're supposed to avoid market timing, but I couldn't resist and threw a few $K into QQQ at COB today. We'll see if I seem brilliant or idiotic in a few days.
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02-03-2014, 05:01 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: DFW
Posts: 6,577
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This isn't even a correction yet and most would consider a correction healthy anyway. These can be buying opportunities for those with cash.
__________________
Doing things today that others won't, to do things tomorrow that others can't. Of course I'm referring to workouts, not robbing banks.
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