Gloom & Doom Pundits vs. the S&P 500 2010-2016

[bclover]

I don't know why these quacks even get enough coverage to make their bizarre views even narrowly known.

That said, with respect to Mr. Weidemer, you can say that he is consistent... 50% unemployment, 90% stock market crash and 100% inflation starting soon... but thankfully he is also consistently WRONG!

'cause unfortunately Pb4uski fear sells.

I'm not sure if others have these things in their area but here in Philly every so often we have these "seminars" you can attend that are given by some "guru" has a sure fire way to protect your assets 100% while also growing them. They always have a "limited amount of seating" so call now and reserve.

I'm a bit late to the investment game as my late husband did most of it but after he passed I knew I had to learn a bit instead of just handing my money over to a FA.

It was so depressing, most of the information was pretty much how if I did not have a million bucks in the bank I could kiss my keaster goodbye because I was doooomed to spend my old age in a box, under a bridge, eating dog food.

my computer loads up onto Yahoo, every day there is a feed about how retirees are doomed.

My coworker actually told me about this site

 

[Totoro]

.. I was doooomed to spend my old age in a box, under a bridge, eating dog food.

Food, shelter and clothing (a box). At least the essentials are covered

 

[COcheesehead]

Well, a wise man once said.......There are those that don't know and those that don't know that don't know.

And an even wiser man who said:
Those that know, don't tell. Those that tell, don't know.

 

[Totoro]

So Buddha didn't know after all?

Darn.

 

[Options]

They're all selling something. Or have a vested interest in gold.

+1
See this:

Why even the best investing advice may be wrong - MarketWatch

“Sell everything” or “buy now” or “head for gold” makes great headlines, but isn’t great strategy for individual investors.

The reason isn’t that the market observers are reading fluctuations and trends differently than individuals, using specific technical analysis or analyzing contrarily the fundamentals. Nor is it that the experts are always wrong, no matter how popular that sentiment might be.

The issue is that money managers run money, while individual investors run their own lives.

The experts you see, hear and read about live by the rules of an investment mandate and die if they can’t keep up with the competition, while investors live with their decisions and modify their strategies because they can’t afford to fall.

Thus, whenever you hear a market forecast and recommendation on what to do next, it pays to consider the differences between you and the guy making the recommendation.

 

[GravitySucks]

Thanks for all those helpful quotes. I'm going all gold and locking the TV dial to CNBC.
One, question though, what's the squiggly line and numbers in the picture mean?

 

[NW-Bound]

So Buddha didn't know after all?

Darn.

Buddha would be the last to know about the market movement.

Heck, he was broke after giving up his position as a prince, so would not have any money to invest, remember?

He was trying to find happiness without the use of money, while most of us still try to buy some happiness (like caviar, truffle, lobster, Cognac, single malt, etc...).

 

[UpAnchor]

He was trying to find happiness without the use of money, while most of us still try to buy some happiness (like caviar, truffle, lobster, Cognac, single malt, etc...).

Still, by those likenesses I've seen, he appears to have been well fed...

 

[braumeister]

Still, by those likenesses I've seen, he appears to have been well fed...

Hey, if someone offered to tell you the way to total enlightenment, wouldn't you buy him a Krispy Kreme?

 

[audreyh1]

He does explain a lot of his thinking in data-drive logic, and is actually an investment manager.

I think he's worthwhile reading up on, he's not really a doom pundit:
Hussman Funds - Investing for long-term returns while managing risk - Home page

Are you sure? He seems stuck in permabear mode and so got the stopped clock break in 2008. http://www.thinkadvisor.com/2014/12/01/hussmans-returns-like-his-forecasts-are-dismal-ana

Not that it couldn't happen again......

 

[Texas Proud]

What amazes me about Weidemer is how he can be so wrong for so long and still continue to sell books like hot cakes. Consistently holding onto the 90% drop/50% unemployment seems way over-the-top to most of us, even making some of the other pundits' projections look bland. Yet his books seem to fly off the shelf at our local Barnes & Noble. Perhaps he figures one of these days he'll finally hit the big one and be seen for posterity as the one true prophet. Until then, just keep preaching/selling...

Yea, I was going to comment that he has the same prediction every year... but since I doubt we will ever get to 50% unemployment I predict that he will ALWAYS be wrong...

 

[UpAnchor]

Hey, if someone offered to tell you the way to total enlightenment, wouldn't you buy him a Krispy Kreme?

Excellent point! I've paid a lot more for a lot less.

 

[NW-Bound]

Buddha would be the last to know about the market movement.

Heck, he was broke after giving up his position as a prince, so would not have any money to invest, remember?

He was trying to find happiness without the use of money, while most of us still try to buy some happiness (like caviar, truffle, lobster, Cognac, single malt, etc...).

Still, by those likenesses I've seen, he appears to have been well fed...

Hey, if someone offered to tell you the way to total enlightenment, wouldn't you buy him a Krispy Kreme?

There was no Facebook back then, so no one knows exactly what Buddha looked like.

Wikipedia shows the following statue from the 4th century, which is 8 centuries after Siddhartha's death, so the accuracy is not at all certain.


And by the way, don't you confuse the "laughing Buddha" with the honcho Buddha, the prince Siddhārtha Gautama who left his royal post to become a wandering preacher. The two are as different as Santa Claus from Jesus Christ.

 

[NW-Bound]

Wikipedia has this to say about the "laughing" Buddha.

Budai or Pu-Tai is a Chinese folkloric deity. His name means "Cloth Sack", and comes from the bag that he is conventionally depicted as carrying. He is usually identified with or seen as an incarnation of Maitreya, the future Buddha, so much so that the Budai image is one of the main forms in which Maitreya is depicted in China. He is almost always shown smiling or laughing, hence his nickname in Chinese, the Laughing Buddha.

In the West, the image of Budai is often mistaken for Gautama Buddha, and is hence called the Fat Buddha.​

Note that Siddharta Gautama was born in eastern India or Nepal, while the laughing Buddha may not be real, and was a Chinese character. See following typical statue of Budai linked from Wikipedia.

 

[NW-Bound]

OK, here are several statues of the real Buddha, the prince Siddharta Gautama, as an ascetic. Some of these statues date back to the 2nd century.

No Kryspy Kreme here.

This is what Siddharta most likely looked like, given his nationality.

 

[audreyh1]

NW Bound - I'm really glad you have the Buddha history to share. I enjoyed that portion of the Story of India TV series. It's interesting how China and Japan and other far eastern counties adopted the India export Buddhism, whereas in the northern India region of origin it was ultimately displaced by Islam except for in the Himalayas.

 

[eytonxav]

I believe Hussman changed his approach, missing the second part of the recovery.

He basically now thinks that overvalued situations can persist as long as there is no event triggering a panic. So he expanded the model. Last I checked (a while ago) he's now in the "overvalued but no crash ahead" camp.

Whether it works dunno, but he's trying to learn from his mistakes and freely admits them.

I dunno, gave up on following any of his comments as he was so wrong for a very long period of time and refused to smell the roses.

 

[NW-Bound]

NW Bound - I'm really glad you have the Buddha history to share. I enjoyed that portion of the Story of India TV series. It's interesting how China and Japan and other far eastern counties adopted the India export Buddhism, whereas in the northern India region of origin it was ultimately displaced by Islam except for in the Himalayas.

Buddhism spred west as far as Afghanistan. Proof is the giant statues of Siddharta in the Bamiyan valley, which was on the Silk Road. The two statues were carved into the face of a cliff in the 6th century. They survived through the centuries, until blown up by the Taliban in 2001.

Buddhism today is known through the worship of the Chinese and Southeast Asians, who introduced their own regional flavors and customs. Hence, it is common for Westerners to think of the laughing Buddha as the real Buddha Siddartha. It's a big mistake, as I said, the same as thinking of Santa Claus as representing Christianity.

 

[HFWR]

(Adjusts bowtie...) A "crash" will happen, as likely will a bear, a bull, a recession or two, maybe throw in a couple of bubbles...

 

[Totoro]

Buddhism spred west as far as Afghanistan. Proof is the giant statues of Siddharta in the Bamiyan valley, which was on the Silk Road. The two statues were carved into the face of a cliff in the 6th century. They survived through the centuries, until blown up by the Taliban in 2001.

I really like this birds eye of the spread of the major religions:

Didn't how far into Africa for example Islam spread, and how Buddhism basically "ate" Hinduism from within before jumping east.

(Veering off-topic, I know. So thank you for the Buddhistic mod tolerance).

 

[Frankie1926]

Great chart, love it! They should display this on cnbc.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

 

[FIREchief]

I really like that chart. Thanks for posting it.