another Chicken Little post?
Nords, remember the Chicken Littles two years ago who were saying that housing was extremely overpriced and due for a great fall?
We'll find out as the years pass.
Hey, I retired in the middle of the tech wreck. I've been through the 1970s, 19 Oct 1987, 17 Sep 2001, and a whole bunch of other scary market scenarios. We didn't chase performance, we tried to stay diversified, we didn't pay (too many) high fees, and we didn't chicken-little out when the going got scary. We DCA'd into the market from 1982-2002, and we dumped in extra during the nasty dips.
Our diversified portfolio has doubled in the last five years (hit two new record highs last week) and we've been happily retired for all of those five years.
How are you folks positioning yourselves?
As is readily apparent, I'm a big fan of Hussman - especially his track record during the '00-'02 market retreat. I really do believe that we are entering some very bleak investing times, and that the standard "60/40 buy-and-hold" approach could well get you much poorer. That being said, that is the advice you see damn near everywhere. So therefore I'm leaning towards trusting someone else to understand where this might be headed, and letting him worry about where to invest when the dollar is crumbling, housing is imploding, and - we shall see - the stock market starts to head south.
Think I might just keep 3 years of living expenses in CDs/MMs, keep my foreign bond percentage, and split the rest between the two Hussman funds...
You guys?
Guys like Hussman do a vital job of building that wall of worry for the market to climb over, even if they're only as accurate as a stopped clock.
We did some bargain-shopping over the last couple months and maybe I got a little overenthusiastic in depleting those cash reserves. We're at the point where the CD dividends & rental home's cash flow are going to have to replenish the money-market account for a few months. But I think I can live with the results.
31% Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), up 6% YTD
21% international dividend ETF (PID), up 12% YTD + dividends
17% Dow dividend ETF (DVY), up 2.7% YTD (nearly doubled up on this one)
13% small-cap value ETF (IJS), up 3% YTD + dividends
2% spouse's TSP ("S" fund), up 10% YTD
8% individual stocks, up 10-35% YTD
8% CDs at 6-6.25% APY (8-29 months)
Buy what's cheap, stay diversified, and stick to your plan...
Run, little piglets, run!!!
What he said.
Barbarus, I don't think there's anything I can say that'd change your "Yeah but" frame of mind. As long as you see cracks in that sky overhead, just ignore the cheery news you're getting from FIRECalc and the experts' DCA diversification advice. You have to find your own comfort zone, if you have one, so you keep working and contributing to Social Security & Medicare for the rest of us as long as you want, OK?
You have a nice life now.