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GSEs vs. CDs and Treasuries?
Old 08-01-2022, 03:39 PM   #1
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GSEs vs. CDs and Treasuries?

As stated in another thread (thanks for the feedback) I'm looking to roll my 401K stable value (2.15%) into my IRA and dump/ladder it into CDs/Treasuries.
Today, somebody has been sucking the CD inventory at Fido and Freedom56 mentioned Fido has stopped participating in some new issue markets (I think he mentioned corporates). So it's already slim pickings, leaving GSEs.

What are y'alls opinions on GSEs? Articles state they "are the same as treasuries, but they're not". They have AAA ratings... but then so did sub-prime.
A lot of them seem to be callable, but then so is any of the 5+ year CDs.

The more I look at this the more confused/hangry I get.... maybe the bonds are just moving to fast for me to keep up.
30 minutes ago a GSE with at 4%+ coupon and a negative YTW(! I assume it was because it was selling above par with a potential call date next month... but it was just issued in late June!)
Rates/availability are moving faster than I can push the "place order" button.

Anyway... back to the question:
How likely are GSEs to actually get callled?
What is the credit risk of a GSE vs. FDIC CDs? Does the Fed just push 'print' to make good on them or will they sink?
I'm looking to ladder out 10ish years... how long is too long on a GSE?

-thanks
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Old 08-01-2022, 04:02 PM   #2
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Evaluate on yield to worst which takes into account calls. It represents the worst case.
Anything with yields higher than treasuries or CDs will have more risk, but if you buy investment grade it’s still pretty low.
I buy the highest yielding, investment grade bonds that fit my duration. I have a low seven figures devoted to a ten year ladder. Been buying for almost 22 years. I have never, knock on wood, had a default.
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