Heading under 10,000 on the way!

Stocks are down this A.M. and the news is full of stories that the "bailout" neither prevents the Euro from declining nor fixes the sovereign debt crisis. These would be valid criticisms if it were designed to do either. Instead it is designed to give countries breathing room to implement their austerity programs. A lower Euro actually helps. The problem would be if countries saw the "bailout" as an excuse to backtrack on the austerity measures. If that happens, then yesterday's plan will have been for naught. But it seems a little premature to call that one.
 
Banks made bad loans, encouraged by the gov...

Bubble bursts, loans default...

Banks shift the debt to Gov...

Gov tries to shift debt to taxpayer...

Responsible people get screwed and madder by the minute...

"Austerity" is not gonna work. People around the world are tired of getting screwed by the Bank-Gov... Same thing...

Stocks and everything else will CRASH HARD!!!!

The global Ponzi is unwinding...

The banks-Fed are losing control of the scam...

War will be the end game...

Depressing, hell yea...

Buy the dips!!!
 
ESRwannabe said:
I use index funds for the bulk of my money, but not because I believe in the EMH. It is simply a cheap way to invest with a reasonable algorithm.
Click to expand...

If you don't believe in the EMH, what is reasonable about index investing? Without an assumed tight linkage between price and value the whole indexing idea is hollow.

Ha
 
smjsl said:
@Running man, would not most likely scenario just be inflating the way out of all the debts? It's easy to repay those loans when everyone's wages and prices jump (perhaps world-wide). In the process, everyone who has been saving will most likely lose the value of their investments, but it will be gradual enough that you will not see any demonstrations on the streets and everyone (including those savers) will just have to keep working longer.
Click to expand...

I suppose that is true if you don't mind inconvenient outcomes like the rise of Hitler and WW2. Either extreme deflation or extreme inflation bring down governments and entire political systems.

Ha
 
haha said:
I suppose that is true if you don't mind inconvenient outcomes like the rise of Hitler and WW2. Either extreme deflation or extreme inflation bring down governments and entire political systems.
Ha
Click to expand...

Good news: (very) high inflation does NOT imply WW3 or next Hitler.
Bad news: whether I mind it or not, noone will ask me.
 
haha said:
If you don't believe in the EMH, what is reasonable about index investing? Without an assumed tight linkage between price and value the whole indexing idea is hollow.

Ha
Click to expand...

It would have been better if I had said that I don't believe in "strong form" EMH.

I believe that, most of the time, the market does a reasonable job of valuing stocks in the large cap sector. So, I am happy using index funds for these, although not exclusively.
 
IndependentlyPoor said:
This sort of sounds like another shoe dropping to me
Calculated Risk: Schwarzenegger: Eliminate Welfare and most Child Care, reduce Health Care

Anybody care to speculate on the impact to California's economy?
Click to expand...

At least its not a new shoe.

But its true. At the same time the Federal Government is using fiscal stimulus to support recovery, nearly every state is tightening (raising taxes and cutting spending). We have 50 Herbert Hoovers at the state level throwing the machinery into reverse.
 
Gone4Good said:
At least its not a new shoe.

But its true. At the same time the Federal Government is using fiscal stimulus to support recovery, nearly every state is tightening (raising taxes and cutting spending). We have 50 Herbert Hoovers at the state level throwing the machinery into reverse.
Click to expand...

Heh. They aren't lil Hoovers by choice. All states except Vermont have some sort of balanced budget amendment or rule. 38 of the states and territories cannot carry forward a deficit from year to year, so policies for dodging economic fluctuations such such as a rolling net balance over a several year period cannot be applied.

Couple that with states that rely primarily on income tax on high earners, which tend to vanish in economic downturns, and we find that many states are set up for a real budgetary roller coaster ride.

It's the Law of Unintended Consequences with nasty big pointy teeth.
killer-rabbit.jpg
 
David Hefty CEO with Cornerstone Wealth Mgt says DOW 5000 this year. Heard it on cnbc. So there you have it, sell.
img_937553_0_0ff25d720d269205de68fc80b5a9b3e4.gif
 
Dawg52 said:
Yeah, but it gives me an excuse to stock up on med's.
Click to expand...

You have become the consumate CNBC watcher:

1)You play a lot of golf

2)You drink meds

3)You watch CNBC every day

They love folks like you..........:)
 
Forecast of market open and close...

I forecast that the market will open at 9:30 AM and close at 4:00 PM.

Oh, the market VALUATION?

A widely cited incident involves when J. P. Morgan (1837-1913) was asked by someone what the market would do that day. “It will fluctuate, young man. It will fluctuate,” Morgan reportedly replied.
 
M Paquette said:
I forecast that the market will open at 9:30 AM and close at 4:00 PM.

Oh, the market VALUATION?

A widely cited incident involves when J. P. Morgan (1837-1913) was asked by someone what the market would do that day. “It will fluctuate, young man. It will fluctuate,” Morgan reportedly replied.
Click to expand...

+1 Finally someone who has it figured out. M Paquette, you need to start putting out a newsletter. :LOL:
 
M Paquette said:
I forecast that the market will open at 9:30 AM and close at 4:00 PM.

....
Click to expand...
Not in our time zone! Finally a finance topic I understand. Way back when I was w*rking, I sometimes had occasion to walk into the Financial District before the buses started at 6:00 a.m. It was amusing to see the mini-rush hour of walkers hurrying to get to work well before the market opens at 6:30 a.m.
 
It will be nice if share prices go down more or stay put for the rest of the year. I was afraid that the good bargains would be gone before the end of 2010. Lots of great stocks out their at very good prices. I will continue adding most new money to a Europe index. Fear driving down share price is good.
 
So I guess it's all gonna work out great, I should buy the dip and party like it's 1929:greetings10:

We have a "Constitutional scholar" and an "Expert on the Great Depression" in charge, what could go wrong:LOL:
 
Steve O said:
So I guess it's all gonna work out great, I should buy the dip and party like it's 1929:greetings10:

We have a "Constitutional scholar" and an "Expert on the Great Depression" in charge, what could go wrong:LOL:
Click to expand...

I never said nothing can go wrong.
I was simply commenting on your absolutism.
April or so of 2009 we had someone just as sure as you that the S&P would face a major correction 'soon'. They mentioned a month. That month came and went, so they extended it another month or so. In another month or so, they extended it to the end of October.
Didn't happen, instead of 740, we were over 1000 as I recall.

Likewise, I am not saying that next week we will have a rally, or even next month. You may be right and "soon" we will hit 8500. I don't really care (just when is "soon" anyways).

All I am saying is that eventually, any prediction of the stock market is likely to come to pass. And if you use weasel words such as 'soon' it is not difficult to make predictions that come true;)
 
Zathras said:
April or so of 2009 we had someone just as sure as you that the S&P would face a major correction 'soon'. They mentioned a month. That month came and went, so they extended it another month or so. In another month or so, they extended it to the end of October.
Didn't happen, instead of 740, we were over 1000 as I recall.
Click to expand...

I remember him. I think his name was Steve O. ;)
 
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