Help with the math of this market downturn

[Jerry1]

I must be missing something. Today the market closed a bit lower than the close for 2018 but my portfolio is way lower than the math would indicate.

On 12/28/18, the S&P closed at 2485.74. Today it closed at 2398.19, a 87.64 point difference or about 3.5%. My portfolio was at about $995K at 2018 year end so a 3.5% drop should put it around $960K. But, it's closer to $910K

Looked at a total market index. VTSMX was at 66.89 at the end of 2018 and closed today at 61.33. That's about a 8.3% drop. $995K less 8.3% is about $913K - higher than my portfolio but about the same.

Problem is that I've never been over 60% in equities.

What I'm I doing wrong? My peak was about $1,150K. Is the fact that the base went up so much the reason for the lower than expected amount? Is my math or logic way off?

 

[SecondCor521]

Problems:

1. The 61.33 close for VTSMX was yesterday's (Tuesday's) close. Vanguard has not yet posted today's (Wednesday's) NAV for VTSMX (they will in about ten minutes). If you own stocks, those are priced immediately; for any mutual funds you own you have to wait until about two hours after close if they're Vanguard funds.

2. Whatever you own may have done better or worse than the S&P in the time frame you're looking at. Unless you own VFIAX, this is probably part of the explanation. Comparing a <60% equities portfolio against the S&P against VTSMX is not going to work very well.

3. Dividends between end of 2018 and today would affect things, although not sure if that would be a good explanation in your particular case as it may exacerbate the unexplained difference rather than explain it partially.

 

[Jerry1]

Okay. I was missing something. VTSMX hadn't updated yet. Thank you.

VTSMX is down about 13.7% so that made a significant difference. I'm a little surprised the S&P isn't down as much, but I'm sure my stock holdings are more reflective of the entire market.

So with a 13.7% drop, $995K would be closer to $860K. Of course my brokerage updated also since I posted and the day ending number is $899. I would think only having 60% stock would generate a larger difference, but at least the numbers make more sense. Thanks.

 

[SecondCor521]

The S&P and VTSMX overlap about 80%. The non-S&P part of VTSMX is smaller capitalization stocks, which can behave a bit differently than the S&P over the short run but not much over the long run.

 

[Looking4Ward]

I was contemplating a different math aspect of today's market.

And that is it will need to go up almost 49% from today's close (19,898) to reach this year's high (29,568).

 

[Perryinva]

Ouch. That souNds so much worse than the 32% drop...

 

[Freedom56]

In my opinion, the Dow and S&P 500 indices are very deceptive measures. Their components change over time as weak components are deleted in favor of stronger companies. However, a total market index will capture those loser companies and under perform. Consider also that many companies in your total market index have been in a decline over the past four years (energy, retail, etc...) which may explain the under performance.