House prices to drop much lower: Greenspan

[ShokWaveRider]

I have to agree also. The same old adage, If we/CNN talk about something for long enough, it WILL happen. This has been talked about since 2004. It IS happening and IMHO will continue for up to 36 more months.

I am currently a cash buyer in NE Florida at 25% less than most folk are asking. (Homes priced in the $600 - $800k range) If they do not take it, I walk. I have another very comfortable place to live.

People here are still asking 2005 prices. I find the estimates for tax purposes by the county on the appraisers web site are closer in line with reality.

SWR

 

[chinaco]

I have to agree also. The same old adage, If we/CNN talk about something for long enough, it WILL happen. This has been talked about since 2004. It IS happening and IMHO will continue for up to 36 more months.

I am currently a cash buyer in NE Florida at 25% less than most folk are asking. (Homes priced in the $600 - $800k range) If they do not take it, I walk. I have another very comfortable place to live.

People here are still asking 2005 prices. I find the estimates for tax purposes by the county on the appraisers web site are closer in line with reality.

SWR

Self-fulfilling Prophecy! Perhaps.

 

[Spanky]

I am currently a cash buyer in NE Florida at 25% less than most folk are asking. (Homes priced in the $600 - $800k range) If they do not take it, I walk. I have another very comfortable place to live.
SWR

What is your hit rate so far? That is, how many houses from which you have walked away and vice versa?

 

[Fred333]

They markets like this all over where it seems they are still stuck in the early eighties. The key is finding them and seeing the potential in them.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Currently I have not. Whenever I see a seller asking more than what the peak was in 2005 (When a lot of them purchased) I do not bother making an offer. I do not have an impending event. I will just keep looking until I find the place I want. I am comfortable where we are. (Renting 3 bed 3 bath 1750sqft on Tidal River for $800pm). I have been renting this place since 2005 because of prices.

I did nearly go for one and probably would have got it, but it was removed from the market before I had a chance. The owners tried to auction it but it did not even sell there so they pulled it. They had 2 homes, and sold the other at auction (20% less than the listing price).

so I just keep looking.

What is your hit rate so far? That is, how many houses from which you have walked away and vice versa?

 

[honobob]

Isn't Houston in Texas?

Well if prices are rising in Houston and Seattle and nobody here has completed a purchase on a "steal" what are we talking about?


Houston and national housing markets don't fit in same basket - Houston Business Journal:

 

[Jay_Gatsby]

I am currently a cash buyer in NE Florida at 25% less than most folk are asking. (Homes priced in the $600 - $800k range) If they do not take it, I walk. I have another very comfortable place to live.

People here are still asking 2005 prices. I find the estimates for tax purposes by the county on the appraisers web site are closer in line with reality.

SWR

I'm finding the same thing around here in the DC suburbs in Maryland. Many folks are still desperately trying to find a [-]sucker[/-] buyer that will pay what WAS the going rate in early-to-mid-2006. This smacks of pure GREED in my book. The vast majority of homes being sold in the neighborhoods where my wife and I are looking haven't been updated since the late-1970s or early-1980s (old appliances, water-heater, HVAC unit, kitchen, faux wood paneling, shag carpet, etc...), and need maintenance beyond mere renovations (old roofs, rotting decks, decrepit/dead trees, etc...). The asking price of such homes is quadruple what many (of the Baby Boomer occupants) paid when they bought their houses, and yet they quibble over a 5-10% reduction in the asking price. Their real estate agents won't listen to reason, since they are paid 3% of the selling price and want to keep it as high as possible (funny, I always thought 3% of nothing still equals nothing).

My wife and I are in no real hurry, although we would like to own a house and cut our commutes by moving closer to our jobs. Such desires are not worth paying $50k+ more than we should.

 

[haha]

This one is priceless

I saw a house for sale yesterday-1800 sq feet on 2 floors, moderately run down, on a heavily traveled street with little setback. 3 bedrooms and 1 bath, $749,500. Neighborhood mostly renters, but basically safe and quite convenient. No garage, but parking pad in front yard.

The sign said, "Charming turn of century house, built 1903, fully remodeled in 1929....".

Well, in that case, I think I will buy it.

Ha

 

[W2R]

I saw a house for sale yesterday-1800 sq feet on 2 floors, moderately run down, on a heavily traveled street with little setback. 3 bedrooms and 1 bath, $749,500. Neighborhood mostly renters, but basically safe and quite convenient. No garage, but parking pad in front yard.

The sign said, "Charming turn of century house, built 1903, fully remodeled in 1929....".

Well, in that case, I think I will buy it.

And, I suppose that implies that nobody has done a thing to it in the past 78 years, too! Now THERE's a desirable house.

 

[honobob]

I'm finding the same thing around here in the DC suburbs in Maryland.

My wife and I are in no real hurry, although we would like to own a house and cut our commutes by moving closer to our jobs. Such desires are not worth paying $50k+ more than we should.

Sounds like prices aren't going down near DC. Wait too long and you might be looking at "affordable housing".

Despite downturn, Loudoun remains pricey for many - Washington Business Journal:

 

[honobob]

And, I suppose that implies that nobody has done a thing to it in the past 78 years, too! Now THERE's a desirable house.

I think they're saying the house is more valuable since it hasn't been destroyed by a 1960's or 1980's remodel that usually removes all the "Charm".

 

[FinanceDude]

On a different note, how come Greenspan has all these things to say AFTER he's no longer Fed Chair

 

[73ss454]

On a different note, how come Greenspan has all these things to say AFTER he's no longer Fed Chair

Because he's making a lot more money now.

 

[brewer12345]

On a different note, how come Greenspan has all these things to say AFTER he's no longer Fed Chair

Because he has a book to flog?

 

[haha]

Because he has a new pimp.

 

[Lusitan]

Many folks are still desperately trying to find a [-]sucker[/-] buyer that will pay what WAS the going rate in early-to-mid-2006.

Same thing up here in the NYC metro area; but nobody's buying and houses are sitting.

I think NYC and DC are holding out (false) hope that they can avoid the (necessary) plunge in housing prices. As you said, hang in there and don't be in any rush to buy, and I think in 6 months or so you'll see a much different picture.

 

[Jay_Gatsby]

Same thing up here in the NYC metro area; but nobody's buying and houses are sitting.

I think NYC and DC are holding out (false) hope that they can avoid the (necessary) plunge in housing prices. As you said, hang in there and don't be in any rush to buy, and I think in 6 months or so you'll see a much different picture.

The housing market in DC will slide, but only until next Spring/Summer. After then, people will simply hold onto their houses until the election in November. Lots of new appointees will be looking for houses in the "right" neighborhoods (and which have good schools). As such, we're probably going to buy sometime between February and May.

 

[Lusitan]

Is the to-the-winner-go-the-spoils segment of the govt workforce really that large that it drives real estate prices in DC? I didn't think it would be large enough to have such an impact. But you know that area way better than I do.

And won't there be an equally sized group of outgoing appointees as well to cancel out the effects of the incoming politicos on the housing market? Just curious.

 

[Jay_Gatsby]

Is the to-the-winner-go-the-spoils segment of the govt workforce really that large that it drives real estate prices in DC? I didn't think it would be large enough to have such an impact. But you know that area way better than I do.

And won't there be an equally sized group of outgoing appointees as well to cancel out the effects of the incoming politicos on the housing market? Just curious.

To answer your questions:

1. The reason a change in administrations has such a large impact is because many of the political appointees have money and want to live in convenient areas that feature top schools. These areas include: Bethesda, Potomac, Great Falls, McLean, Vienna and Alexandria. Housing in such areas is very expensive and rather tight.

2. Yes, there will be an outgoing group of political appointees, but the issue is not one of number but rather turnover of houses. Most of the appointees in D.C. have been here since the early-2000s (when GWB was elected). They're already leaving in droves, with that number increasing as the election grows closer (this would even be the case if a Republican is elected -- supporters are promised jobs for working on the campaign). That means the existing houses will be sold at prices that are probably double what the current occupants paid for them. This makes it difficult on those of us who aren't political appointees and are hunting for bargains.

 

[haha]

Update on Seatle RE

Today I was down in Madrona, a convenient and nice older neighborhood about 2 miles from the center of Downtown Seattle, on Lake Washington. I saw a nice 3 story medium size house overlooking the lake with a For Sale sign and one of those broker boxes by the street. I picked up a flyer and put it in my pocket. When I got home I saw that the original glossy flyer gave the price as $1,350,000, but that it had been stickered over with the new price--$995,000. Compared to what I have seen lately, this is quite a buy.

I have made a kind of a Sunday hobby of going around to open houses, mostly condos and co-ops. Not much traffic, some moderate price reductions, but the brokers talking tough.

I think the gravity defying Seattle market is finally starting to get real- especially for people who really do have to sell. Both of the open houses I attended yesterday were staged with rented furniture; the owners had long since departed for a new house, or new job or whatever. And the prices had been reduced. Still a long way from rental values, but reduced none the less.

Ha

 

[2B]

Today I was down in Madrona, a convenient and nice older neighborhood about 2 miles from the center of Downtown Seattle, on Lake Washington. I saw a nice 3 story medium size house overlooking the lake with a For Sale sign and one of those broker boxes by the street. I picked up a flyer and put it in my pocket. When I got home I saw that the original glossy flyer gave the price as $1,350,000, but that it had been stickered over with the new price--$995,000. Compared to what I have seen lately, this is quite a buy.

I have made a kind of a Sunday hobby of going around to open houses, mostly condos and co-ops. Not much traffic, some moderate price reductions, but the brokers talking tough.

I think the gravity defying Seattle market is finally starting to get real- especially for people who really do have to sell. Both of the open houses I attended yesterday were staged with rented furniture; the owners had long since departed for a new house, or new job or whatever. And the prices had been reduced. Still a long way from rental values, but reduced none the less.

Ha

Having lived in Seattle when the Seattle Times had the headline "Would the Last Person Leaving Seattle Please Turn Out the Lights," I have been amazed how property values have soared for my siblings while my Houston abode languishes around my purchase price. I have never felt Seattle was full of high income people able to afford million dollar plus homes but they seem to be happening. My $20,000 per year sister is sitting on a $750,00 property and doesn't like my advice of selling and moving out to the far burbs for another chicken sh*t job.

 

[haha]

My $20,000 per year sister is sitting on a $750,00 property and doesn't like my advice of selling and moving out to the far burbs for another chicken sh*t job.

She must be struggling to pay what is likely $600/month in property taxes.

Ha

 

[brewer12345]

Today I was down in Madrona, a convenient and nice older neighborhood about 2 miles from the center of Downtown Seattle, on Lake Washington. I saw a nice 3 story medium size house overlooking the lake with a For Sale sign and one of those broker boxes by the street. I picked up a flyer and put it in my pocket. When I got home I saw that the original glossy flyer gave the price as $1,350,000, but that it had been stickered over with the new price--$995,000. Compared to what I have seen lately, this is quite a buy.

I have made a kind of a Sunday hobby of going around to open houses, mostly condos and co-ops. Not much traffic, some moderate price reductions, but the brokers talking tough.

I think the gravity defying Seattle market is finally starting to get real- especially for people who really do have to sell. Both of the open houses I attended yesterday were staged with rented furniture; the owners had long since departed for a new house, or new job or whatever. And the prices had been reduced. Still a long way from rental values, but reduced none the less.

Ha

FWIW, my blah middleclass suburban area has seen some asking price reductions, but nothing dramatic. Meanwhile, I see properties sitting on the market for 6+ months, and the sherrif's sale list every monday is growing longer. Something's gotta give, and I bet it is price. I have my eye on a smallhouse in the hood that has an unrealistic asking price given its condition and the current market. I think that the week I see it first appear on the sherrif's list I will talk a walk through and posibly submit a lowball offer. I think that's what it will take to make the pricing work for an investment property.

 

[Spanky]

Having lived in Seattle when the Seattle Times had the I have never felt Seattle was full of high income people able to afford million dollar plus homes but they seem to be happening.

The Seattle area is experiencing job growth. High tech and medical device companies are fueling the growth. Salaries offered by these companies are quite high, I presume.

 

[Fireup2020]

In addition to the new strip malls cropping up, has anyone else noticed a flurry of new bank branch offices sprouting? One area here in NJ (Morristown) has at least 10 brand new bank branches in the last 6 - 12 mos!!! (some are just buying/rehab'ing existing buildings) Aren't people doing more online banking?