How bad is it in California?

[james22]

Works and Days » Thoughts on the Therapeutic Style

[honobob]

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Originally Posted by Urchina PS. Honobob, how do you define "crash?" I am thinking that maybe that word does not mean what I think it means....

See Below

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Originally Posted by Spanky Definitely not in Silicon Valley. The medium price of a home is over $800K.

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Originally Posted by laurence Don't mind Hono, he's just looking to start a fight. As always.

I didn't come unarmed.

So here's a sampling of a recent report on condos purchased and resold over the socalled bubble period. Want2retire, where you getting your information, the www?

What Real Estate Crash?

Condo resales in California!! 139 Welsh St. #3 sold 6/04 $650,000 and resold 5/08 for 15% more at $748,000.

38 Lusk St. # 2 sold 4/06 for $875,000 and resold 5/08 for $1,250,000. 43% increase.

75 Lansing #3 sold 4/06 for $2,800,000 and resold 6/08 for $3,500,000. 25% increase in 26 months.

701 Minnesota Street #206 sold 12/04 for $700,000 and resold 7/08 $905,000. 29% up!!

855 La Playa #365 sold 6/07 for $365,000 and resold 7/08 for $600,000. 64% over 11 months!

322 Sixth #5 sold 2/04 for $669,000 and resold 9/08 for $951,000. 42% appreciation.

But what about 2009?

2168 Pacific St. sold 10/04 for $795,000 and resold $1,095,000 in 1/09. 38% UP!

355 Bryant #408 sold 10/04 $885,000 and resold for $1,450,000. 64% in 2009!

CuppaJoe, What’s going on in your NBHD? The papers reported a multi-million purchase of a historic preserved house that was split open so the rain could destroy the house so they could tear it down and build something nice on the small lot! I also see 1045 Filbert and 1150 Lombard appreciation 22% and 31%. Gotta luv 999 Green.St. Two condo’s there appreciated for 45% and 63%.

[REWahoo]

Hono, how's that HI condo you bought holding up? I understand you bought near the top and are taking a beating on it. Care to give us verifiable details so we can separate your RE fantasies from reality?

Didn't think so...

[eridanus]

Hindsight cherrypicking always returns impressive gains.

[CuppaJoe]

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....CuppaJoe, What’s going on in your NBHD? ....

These are just some personal observations; I'm not in the real estate business:

As I said before there are at least 81 apt. bldgs. available from the banks. Some sources say my former landlord's real estate business is going down the tubes; he had leveraged those 81 bldgs to the hilt but has maybe 230 more in various stages of equity.

There is a large condo on the market across the street, I don't see the listing yet thru the real estate company's website so don't know the asking price but there has been a parade of 6pm lookie-loos, well dressed after-work professional types.

The monstrous 999 Green you mention is not indicative of the hood. As I mentioned on a long-ago thread, that was one of the buildings that inspired the activists to agitate for height limits.

Honobob, did you notice that REWahoo has a question? Honobob, what are your personal experiences, outside of the papers?

[FUEGO]

Hey Honobob, care to comment on the http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...pit-43929.html thread? Does dumping a ton of money into home improvements factor into any of the figures you cite? How well do you really research those same sales? Just cherry picking?

[riskadverse]

I usually do a 5 mile walk every day in different parts of the center neighborhoods of San Diego.
My observations:

The numbers of real estate signs are increasing.
The names on the real estate signs are most often obscure (possibly agents who handle foreclosures).
The asking prices are still quite high, probably only 20% off of the peak.
The length of time the signs are out are much longer than in the past.
Rental signs are 2 to 3 times as many as a year ago.
The fliers attached to the real estate signs are empty 90% of the time. (all the neighbors are grabbing them to compare?)
Individual homeless "camps" are increasing.
Corner beggers are doubling - enough that soon there won't be enough corners.

[haha]

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Originally Posted by riskadverse I usually do a 5 mile walk every day in different parts of the center neighborhoods of San Diego. My observations: The fliers attached to the real estate signs are empty 90% of the time. (all the neighbors are grabbing them to compare?)

I see this too. I think it may mean discouraged realtors who are not wanting to spend the time, effort, or gas to keep up their displays.

Ha

[REWahoo]

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Originally Posted by honobob So here's a sampling of a recent report on condos purchased and resold over the socalled bubble period.... What Real Estate Crash? Condo resales in California!! 139 Welsh St. #3 sold 6/04 $650,000 and resold 5/08 for 15% more at $748,000. 38 Lusk St. # 2 sold 4/06 for $875,000 and resold 5/08 for $1,250,000. 43% increase. 75 Lansing #3 sold 4/06 for $2,800,000 and resold 6/08 for $3,500,000. 25% increase in 26 months. 701 Minnesota Street #206 sold 12/04 for $700,000 and resold 7/08 $905,000. 29% up!! 855 La Playa #365 sold 6/07 for $365,000 and resold 7/08 for $600,000. 64% over 11 months! 322 Sixth #5 sold 2/04 for $669,000 and resold 9/08 for $951,000. 42% appreciation. But what about 2009? 2168 Pacific St. sold 10/04 for $795,000 and resold $1,095,000 in 1/09. 38% UP! 355 Bryant #408 sold 10/04 $885,000 and resold for $1,450,000. 64% in 2009!

Hono, I noticed you failed to give us a link to verify this information. Probably a simple oversight, but it would help your case if you provided some way to verify what you are claiming.

[haha]

Hono isn't the only person around here who plants his feet solidly in an alternate reality. But I can't figure out his angle. He doesn't market anything, he has no website, what is he after?

[REWahoo]

Posting from a parallel universe?

[FUEGO]

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Originally Posted by haha Hono isn't the only person around here who plants his feet solidly in an alternate reality. But I can't figure out his angle. He doesn't market anything, he has no website, what is he after?

Self affirmation. Wanting to convince himself he is right. A desire to show others just how right he is and how wrong others are. Talking his book. All of the above?

[honobob]

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Originally Posted by CuppaJoe These are just some personal observations; I'm not in the real estate business: As I said before there are at least 81 apt. bldgs. available from the banks. Some sources say my former landlord's real estate business is going down the tubes; he had leveraged those 81 bldgs to the hilt but has maybe 230 more in various stages of equity. There is a large condo on the market across the street, I don't see the listing yet thru the real estate company's website so don't know the asking price but there has been a parade of 6pm lookie-loos, well dressed after-work professional types. The monstrous 999 Green you mention is not indicative of the hood. As I mentioned on a long-ago thread, that was one of the buildings that inspired the activists to agitate for height limits. Honobob, did you notice that REWahoo has a question? Honobob, what are your personal experiences, outside of the papers?

I've talked to a guy who is familiar with this situation. The problem isn't that he has lost market value but that he got caught in the credit crisis because he aquired the properties with short term loans and can not get refi'd. Not the problem of the property but the financing.


Hey 999 Green. I've been in one unit and it had the best view I've seen in SF. Hey, 45% and 63% appreciation. I think they have a good arguement to the city to have all the little properties around them replaced with high rises to solve the budget problems.

Rewahoo has a question for me?..I doubt it as he seems to have all the answers. But if you think it's a valid question quote it so I'll see it.

[honobob]

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Originally Posted by haha Hono isn't the only person around here who plants his feet solidly in an alternate reality. But I can't figure out his angle. He doesn't market anything, he has no website, what is he after?

"Not that there's anything wrong with it." My reality is fact based. haha, let me know if there's 50% off beach front property in your reality. That would be worth crossing the portal .

haha, I'm not after anything. Just don't like to see all the misinformation out there (4% appreciation my a**) or even the correct information given with a negative slant. People are making money every day with real estate. I have some experience and some access that I'd like to pass along. Why do so many here want to only believe the bad information?

[Sam]

When I started this thread years ago, I expected bad things to happen to CA, FL, MA, and other ready to bust areas.

What I could not predict, even in my wildest imagination, was the appearance of the "honobob" character. Like many, I still don't know what he/she is after. But I have made up my mind about his/her craziness, audacity, out-of-the-world ignorance, etc...

My question now for the rest of you is this: Why are you guys still trying to get him/her to see the reality, to accept the truth? What's in it for you guys? Entertainment values? Iddle time passing?

Sam

[honobob]

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Originally Posted by FUEGO Does dumping a ton of money into home improvements factor into any of the figures you cite? How well do you really research those same sales? Just cherry picking?

Fuego, these are condos. Are you aware of any improvements you can do to a 600sf condo to increase tha value by several hundred thousand dollars? I'd pay for that information. I don't post single family because of the difficulity in determining costs of improvements between sales BUT here's a couple that caught my eye in the Noe Valley area that several posters seem to have knowledge of.

625 Duncan Street bought 7/04 for $1.2M took out a permit value by the city at $750,000 and sold 11/08 for $5,818,750 . I hope the seller kept a wheel barrow to haul away his PROFIT.

And 422 Valley St bought for $802,000 8/05 with a $395,000 permit and a 7/08 resale of $2,950,000. That'll buy alot of cherries.

PM the condo improvements. That's too valuable to be out on the web.

[honobob]

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Originally Posted by Sam When I started this thread years ago, Sam

Sam, what year is it in your reality? Here it shows that you started this thread on 1/22/2009. You're from Texas right? Is it a state or a country where you are? Are California and Florida in the Houston suburbs? That could be why you think you are an expert on those areas.

Do you get MegaMillion results there? Could you look up some numbers for 4/24/2009? Thanking you in advance.

[CuppaJoe]

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Originally Posted by honobob [COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana] Rewahoo has a question for me?..I doubt it as he seems to have all the answers. But if you think it's a valid question quote it so I'll see it.

Post #63.

[CuppaJoe]

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Originally Posted by honobob Hey 999 Green. I've been in one unit and it had the best view I've seen in SF. Hey, 45% and 63% appreciation....

Yes, exactly, I said that 999 Green is not indicative of the ‘hood. You know the multi-billionaire couple who occupy the penthouse; he ran a multi-national company with HQ in the financial district. There was a saying in the ‘80s about the revolving doors at that HQ: “Through these doors walk some of the richest men in the world.” So go the doors at 999 Green. When a head of state goes thru those doors, its headlines and helicopters flying above.

So, my theory is that if a multi-billionaire wants a pied-a-terre, s/he might negotiate for one of the better views at 999 Green, and keep upping the offer until s/he gets it.

By not indicative of the ‘hood, I mean that ordinary people there are either like me, people who can afford the rent and then some or just ordinary garden variety multi-millionaires.

Care to join me in the fight to keep height limits?

[CuppaJoe]

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Originally Posted by honobob I've talked to a guy who is familiar with this situation. The problem isn't that he has lost market value but that he got caught in the credit crisis because he aquired the properties with short term loans and can not get refi'd. Not the problem of the property but the financing.....

That’s part of the story. Here is how Wikipedia puts it:

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....was in financial distress due to a combination of softening rents due to the Late 2000s recession (which hurt the effectiveness of its strategy of replacing existing rent-control tenants by attrition and eviction), inability to renew or refinance existing loans due to the Financial crisis of 2007–2009, and a resulting decrease in value and saleability of commercial properties that made it impossible to re-sell buildings to avoid foreclosure. Given the high financial leverage and the group's having initially paid above-market prices, many of their loans were underwater.[9] As of that time the company was attempting to renegotiate approximately $1 billion in loans, and in possible default on another $164 million loan.[9]

This bears repeating: “resulting decrease in value and saleability of commercial properties that made it impossible to re-sell buildings.” Yes, OP, that is how bad it is in California.