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Old 02-11-2016, 03:39 PM   #21
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No one knows. Maybe we are there, maybe not.
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Old 02-11-2016, 03:49 PM   #22
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We are a day closer than yesterday
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Old 02-11-2016, 03:50 PM   #23
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My crystal ball says: the S&P will hit 2100 before it hits 1800.
Wow! This prediction couldn't have been made today.

All I have to say is, "drugs are bad".
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Old 02-11-2016, 03:51 PM   #24
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MKay?
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Old 02-11-2016, 04:12 PM   #25
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My crystal ball says: the S&P will hit 2100 before it hits 1800.
Ooooo - I'll take the other side of that! We got very close this morning - got down to 1810, a new 12 month low.
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Old 02-11-2016, 04:24 PM   #26
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... My other indicator is when my smarter-than-everyone-else neighbor sells everything. Her last remarkable insight was the third week of February 2009 and she proudly announce she went 100% to cash.
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Marko, please update us on your neighbor
I am afraid that was a one-shot indicator. She probably is still in cash.

Marko needs to canvas the neighborhood for other "indicators".
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Old 02-11-2016, 04:25 PM   #27
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Why speculate about the unknowable
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Old 02-11-2016, 04:35 PM   #28
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Marko, please update us on your neighbor!


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Well, she's so utterly brilliant--just ask her-- that she never really got back in, expecting each new day since March 2009 to bring a reversal and then slowly realizing that she missed the boat.
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Old 02-11-2016, 04:38 PM   #29
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Why speculate about the unknowable
+1
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Old 02-11-2016, 08:17 PM   #30
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Why speculate about the unknowable
Because if we know, it becomes fact and there's nothing left to speculate.
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Old 02-11-2016, 08:29 PM   #31
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If history is any indicator the VIX usually spikes first. VIX closed today at 28.14. In August of 2011, VIX was in the 40's and in October of 2008 VIX shot up to the 80's so my guess is we're not there yet.
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Old 02-11-2016, 09:13 PM   #32
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Yellen's done talking and did not rule out negative interest rates, so it's anybody's guess. Capitulation possibly ended today when Dow went down by -400 points - many sold a lot. Then went up to -234 at close. Dow futures now +63. Oil recovered from $26.50 to $27.68 (now). This is not 2008, but more like 2011.

If I'm wrong about today, then Capitulation ends near summer time when the demand for oil goes up as everyone takes their car on a road trip with cheap gas prices, and all equities goes up as oil prices going up.
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Old 02-11-2016, 09:17 PM   #33
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If history is any indicator the VIX usually spikes first. VIX closed today at 28.14. In August of 2011, VIX was in the 40's and in October of 2008 VIX shot up to the 80's so my guess is we're not there yet.
I would expect we have at least 40s. It reached 40s in August of 2015.
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how close are we to capitulation?
Old 02-11-2016, 09:33 PM   #34
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how close are we to capitulation?

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Don't think we're anywhere close to capitulation as there are plenty of bulls still around. When all the bulls become bears is when the bottom is in. moo

+1

My target when I turned bearish back in November was SP500 @ 1750 and til we hit 1750 level I think any rally is a fools rally.
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Old 02-12-2016, 03:54 AM   #35
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Is "capitulation" a fancy word for having hit the bottom?
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how close are we to capitulation?
Old 02-12-2016, 05:19 AM   #36
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how close are we to capitulation?

Yes. The proverbial throwing the baby out with the bath water. Sell just to be selling. Fear is felt broadly. A crescendo of selling resulting in a washout and herd selling where only the strong survive..

It's the emotional - behavioral aspect of finance - a very important part of human driven markets - that makes trading an art not just a science.

Capitulation. Nope. Hasn't happened on this down leg yet. Not even close. Another 100 -150 points down and maybe we see it.

We may grind around 1850 as we have since January but another fast and furious leg down will happen later, probably in March...

Remember China has been on vacation all week - when they come back to work we will see VIX spike and the selling ensue

Keep in mind we've not seen a near 20 percent correction for 6 years. We were way overdue. Even overdue for more frequent 10 percent corrections - we saw only once or twice since 2009, this now makes three. ...

Welcome back to how markets usually taste when not spiked with fed's super-punch.
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Old 02-12-2016, 05:31 AM   #37
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I've been managing my own investments since 1980, so I've seen this play before. 2 years ago I was talking to a young man who had graduated from school after the collapse of 2008, so all he knew was the upswing. He was telling me how he was invested and that he had a high tolerance for risk.
I told him that at this point, he didn't know what his tolerance for risk really was. What he had was a high tolerance for double digit returns, and that he wouldn't really know his tolerance for risk until he saw the value of his portfolio diminish by 40%. The last I knew he was into day trading. I am afraid to ask how he's doing now.
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Old 02-12-2016, 06:50 AM   #38
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The real question is what is going to turn all the negative news around or where is the black swan to the upside? Saudi's cut production, China performs more financial slight of hands, european banks regain strength, Kim Jung Un gets kidnapped, etc.
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Old 02-12-2016, 06:53 AM   #39
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The real question is what is going to turn all the negative news around or where is the black swan to the upside? Saudi's cut production, China performs more financial slight of hands, european banks regain strength, Kim Jung Un gets kidnapped, etc.
or "the market" decides that there has been enough bloodshed, and given the paucity of any better choices, puts money back into equities.
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how close are we to capitulation?
Old 02-12-2016, 07:02 AM   #40
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how close are we to capitulation?

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or "the market" decides that there has been enough bloodshed, and given the paucity of any better choices, puts money back into equities.

Yep... The issue of negative rates is probably the riskiest issue. Even more so than pre-election jitters or the others named above.

The real question is whether or not there is some lurking systemic bank risk that has yet to fully surface ...

Time heals these wounds. Just have to be patient. And hope like hell that we don't have a Japan-like economy for the next 25 years, because firecalc doesn't consider those economic situations in the historic Monte Carlo based simulation dataset
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