how close are we to capitulation?

[tinlizzy]

I had a coworker ask me how to open a brokerage account. He said he got a hot stock tip from a friend who has an Edward Jones guy. The hot stock tip was FAZ. Then he asked me what business FAZ was!

This coworker is the sky is falling kind of guy, always telling people to get out of the stock market because the economy is collapsing and here he is excited to buy a "stock". He should be the poster child for pensions.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

 

[athena53]

I had a coworker ask me how to open a brokerage account. He said he got a hot stock tip from a friend who has an Edward Jones guy. The hot stock tip was FAZ. Then he asked me what business FAZ was!

I confess I had to look it up, but it's a leveraged ETF. Umm, OK.

PT Barnum was right.

 

[HadEnuff]

The "noise" in a nutshell:
The market is dropping; RUN AWAY!!! YOU'LL LOSE EVERYTHING!!!

The market is on a high; RUN AWAY!!!! EVERYTHING IS OVERVALUED!! YOU'LL LOSE EVERYTHING!!!

 

[sengsational]

My prediction is that, although it may happen in a sawtooth pattern, we're in for 3 years of strife. From another thread:

Although I made an off the cuff and wildly optimistic prediction in another thread a while back, it looks like we're headed for S&P 1200 before it starts back to the 2000 range. It will probably take 3 years before it really finds the bottom, and take another 4 to break it's nominal May 2015 level. Maybe I'm nutz. I hope so.

 

[cyber888]

So far I'm still right since my Feb. 11 post. Feb. 15 - 19 has been a great week. Bloomberg futures tonite show we are still going up tomorrow.

Yellen's done talking and did not rule out negative interest rates, so it's anybody's guess. Capitulation possibly ended today when Dow went down by -400 points - many sold a lot. Then went up to -234 at close. Dow futures now +63. Oil recovered from $26.50 to $27.68 (now). This is not 2008, but more like 2011.

If I'm wrong about today, then Capitulation ends near summer time when the demand for oil goes up as everyone takes their car on a road trip with cheap gas prices, and all equities goes up as oil prices going up.

 

[mrfeh]

My crystal ball says: the S&P will hit 2100 before it hits 1800.

Wow! This prediction couldn't have been made today.

All I have to say is, "drugs are bad".

Ooooo - I'll take the other side of that! We got very close this morning - got down to 1810, a new 12 month low.

 

[mrfeh]

PM me if you'd like to subscribe to my investing newsletter.

 

[Gone4Good]

PM me if you'd like to subscribe to my investing newsletter.

Very nice call!

 

[eytonxav]

PM me if you'd like to subscribe to my investing newsletter.

Glad your prediction came to fruition. Now, please tell us where the S&P will be at end of year, and what will the low be between now and then

 

[RobbieB]

I did really well on this little swing. Last year in October I diversified by selling off half of my largest equity holding and buying a bunch of other stocks. This resulted in a $50,000 capitol gain which my FA neutralized by selling a bunch of other stuff at a loss to zero it out right before year end. Then he said that he would buy them all back but he had to wait 30 days to avoid a "wash sale"

Well all that happened during this little "dip and rise" and I'm now up an eighth mill.

Sweet!

 

[DrRoy]

Downturns generally end in capitulation. Wonder if we are anywhere close to it with the market in the last few days.

Don't think we're anywhere close to capitulation as there are plenty of bulls still around. When all the bulls become bears is when the bottom is in. moo

volumes are still low and VIX is only at 30. It was at 40 in August. I'm betting on quite a while. We really won't get there without higher volumes.

Yeah I think the broader market is nowhere near capitulation. I need to see way more articles about how the financial system as we know not may not exist tomorrow.

If history is any indicator the VIX usually spikes first. VIX closed today at 28.14. In August of 2011, VIX was in the 40's and in October of 2008 VIX shot up to the 80's so my guess is we're not there yet.

My crystal ball says: the S&P will hit 2100 before it hits 1800.

This thread started on 2/11. I though it would be interesting to look back at the replies now that we can see what actually happened. 2/11 was THE low day, but the majority did not think so. I have learned that I have no idea where the bottom is so I do not try to guess. The crystal ball (last quote) hit it on the nose today. Anyone can make a lucky call on occasion.

 

[Gone4Good]

I though it would be interesting to look back at the replies now that we can see what actually happened. 2/11 was THE low day, but the majority did not think so.

Ahem, 2/12 . . .

When will it end? Once people learn that not everything is 2008. So soon enough I'd wager.

 

[dtbach]

This thread started on 2/11. I though it would be interesting to look back at the replies now that we can see what actually happened. 2/11 was THE low day, but the majority did not think so. I have learned that I have no idea where the bottom is so I do not try to guess. The crystal ball (last quote) hit it on the nose today. Anyone can make a lucky call on occasion.

Hey, I was the one who started this thread. Maybe I should start a market timing news letter. Just send me $999/mo and I will be happy to let you know my thoughts on where the market is! LOL!!!!