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how close are we to capitulation?
02-11-2016, 10:52 AM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Madison
Posts: 1,337
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how close are we to capitulation?
Downturns generally end in capitulation. Wonder if we are anywhere close to it with the market in the last few days. I don't see this bear market being anywhere close to what 2008 was as banks are not nearly as exposed to bad oil loans as they were to the mortgage fiasco.
Plus low oil prices should be a shot in the arm to the economy, not a drag like lower house prices. The next bull should be much more robust than the currently ending one.
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Wild Bill shoulda taken more out of his IRA when he could have. . . .
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02-11-2016, 11:00 AM
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#2
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 349
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Don't think we're anywhere close to capitulation as there are plenty of bulls still around. When all the bulls become bears is when the bottom is in. moo
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02-11-2016, 11:13 AM
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#3
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 416
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When the headlines start looking like this isn't it a sure sign that the end is near.....?
The world can't afford another financial crash - it could destroy capitalism as we know it. http://tiny.iavian.net/8xc7
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02-11-2016, 11:35 AM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Midwest
Posts: 2,969
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveNU
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We are indeed beginning to see articles like this but that doesn't mean we are near a bottom. This will build and build for some period of time to where these articles become the norm. The bottom is probably a way off at this time but, as these things tend to go, closer than we think. I figure another 15%.
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02-11-2016, 11:37 AM
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#5
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,901
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I don't know how close we are to market capitulation, but I am not yet worried enough to look for a job, so we must still be some ways off.
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02-11-2016, 11:40 AM
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#6
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,715
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A most excellent indicator indeed.
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02-11-2016, 11:40 AM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,145
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Not close, IMO. Oil hasn't finished yet. It has to clearly bottom first. There may be more fallout from the banks. Banks were supposed to do better with rising interest rates, but now interest rates have dropped again, and people are concerned about bank loans to the energy sector.
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Retired since summer 1999.
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02-11-2016, 11:44 AM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Williston, FL
Posts: 3,925
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If you look at Gold prices, we must be close. We have to be closer than last week...
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FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
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02-11-2016, 11:47 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 8,419
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I give it 3 more weeks of pain. Then a rally.
I know it's only one indicator but that is what the chartists are showing.
My other indicator is when my smarter-than-everyone-else neighbor sells everything. Her last remarkable insight was the third week of February 2009 and she proudly announce she went 100% to cash.
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Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
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02-11-2016, 11:51 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,263
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Ask me again when we are down at least 30%. This is still a bump in the road. A big bump, but a bump. When we fall into the sinkhole, we can think about capitulation. My 2¢, take what you wish and leave the rest.
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Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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02-11-2016, 12:05 PM
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#11
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Islands
Posts: 363
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IMHO capitulation will occur when some of the oil based companies file for bankruptcy.
Looking at CHK and SUNE - these are an indicator we are getting closer. The US economy is actually fairly heathy so you have to look at the driver of the problems.
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how close are we to capitualtion?
02-11-2016, 12:08 PM
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#12
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Long Island
Posts: 141
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how close are we to capitualtion?
how close are we to capitualtion?
I don't know about "we" but "I" am pretty close!!
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02-11-2016, 12:18 PM
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#13
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Miami
Posts: 337
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Islandtraveler
how close are we to capitualtion?
I don't know about "we" but "I" am pretty close!!
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When the cover to Time magazine, if it is still around, says we are in a bear market.
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02-11-2016, 12:27 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Tales from a "capitulation" past.
It was October 1, 2008. The S&P 500 was at 1,161 which was about 26% off it's high. That week the bottom fell out and the market plunged another 260 points . . . a whopping weekly decline of about 22%.
Now down a total of 37% from its high and in seeming free fall, I watched as literally everyone seemed to be running for the hills. Ha! I thought. Capitulation.
So I piled in, buying a bunch of stocks in various classes on October 8th.
Surely I had caught the bottom.
But no. The S&P continued to fall by another third before hitting bottom
It was a bit humbling to throw a ton of money at the market and then watch it disappear as if it had been thrown into a wood chipper instead.
That mostly, but not entirely, cured me of my ambitions to catch that particular falling knife. I'm quite proud that I made one more, much smaller, purchase during that bear. On March 2, a couple of days before the ultimate bottom.
Suffice it to say, things need to get a whole lot uglier than this before I start buying in earnest. We're only down, what 16%? Bah! Kid stuff.
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Retired early, traveling perpetually.
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02-11-2016, 12:33 PM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 2,511
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volumes are still low and VIX is only at 30. It was at 40 in August. I'm betting on quite a while. We really won't get there without higher volumes.
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02-11-2016, 12:48 PM
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#16
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Miami
Posts: 337
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Agreed, much higher volumes on big down days. Then a lull with not much change and not much volume, then about 3 days of small up days on light volume.
That is what I am looking for.
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02-11-2016, 12:50 PM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Williston, FL
Posts: 3,925
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And it could be all up from here, and no capitulation. A simple 15% correction.
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
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02-11-2016, 02:15 PM
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#18
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gone traveling
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marko
I give it 3 more weeks of pain. Then a rally.
I know it's only one indicator but that is what the chartists are showing.
My other indicator is when my smarter-than-everyone-else neighbor sells everything. Her last remarkable insight was the third week of February 2009 and she proudly announce she went 100% to cash.
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Marko, please update us on your neighbor!
Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
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02-11-2016, 03:36 PM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,884
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My crystal ball says: the S&P will hit 2100 before it hits 1800.
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