How do you feel now? (4 Months later)

[TechLead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ychuck46 I suppose they could have said WA or OR. That would read to me like "we are really looking forward to our retirement trip to 1980s Beirut".

What? WA has one of the best economies in US. Do you know Amazon or Microsoft?

[MichaelB]

This is a very interesting thread topic with lots more to discuss, so hopefully it stays on course.

[Kathe555]

I didn't sell, but I've been Dollar Cost Averaging a lump sum since last year. I've increased my monthly contributions from the cash account to speed up the process.

So far, so good.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TechLead Lot of people sold in March or changed allocation strategy by reducing equity exposure. Most did not change their strategy. How do you feel now about your decision? If you sold or reduced equities when do you plan to get back in? I will ask same question end of next month.

[Vacation4us]

Stayed the course and next paycheck will have the 403b maxed out for the year. Nervous, yes! But staying the course.

I have thought about selling if the election goes to diminished capacity but I will probably be to chicken to do it. I keep reminding myself that I don’t need the money and can’t touch it for at least 6 years after we retire in November.

Portfolio is at an all time ,trying to ignore the roller coaster. Some fear I know is based on the fact that I will no longer be able to contribute to dollar cost averaging the retirement funds.

[Lawrencewendall]

July hit a record for me with 3.4k in dividends for the month. I'll keep plowing money in monthly as long as the dividends hold up.

[VungTau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead I actually invested more into some aggressive funds in late March and had those bounce back 60%+. WAMCX, ARTYX and BGAFX. I trimmed a bit in the last month. I am back to my base allocation which is conservative.

I did the same, a good chance to reallocate out of some funds while avoiding a huge capital gain and putting the money into funds with more growth potential. Also did some Roth conversions. Worked out great so far...

[Rdub]

I keep a little journal on market thoughts, retirement thoughts, healthcare, etc in my retirement spreadsheet. If I learned anything is that my target 60/40 portfolio (+/- 5pts) is pretty conservative related to my appetite for risk. It was at ~66/34 at the end of Feb, but I kept thinking there would be a pullback and rather than pay taxes on cap gains I just let it ride. At the valley in March I was down to around 55/45. I added some cash to the kids 529s and set up Custodial accounts for them. My Hawaii rental income dried up with the COVID restrictions so my cash pile came in handy and I didn't stress about my positive cash flow going negative. My plan for this year is to roll another chunk of my 401k and backdoor it into my Roth in November. If Biden wins, I may be more aggressive with the amount I backdoor into my Roth and rebalance this year to pull in cap gains.

[PointBreeze]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead The biggest difference for me during the bear in March was I had my assets bucketized. I have 8 years of expenses in a bond ladder and another 10 years in other income producing assets. Equities fill the remaining bucket. So when equities went on sale, though I didn’t like it, I knew I could buy more knowing I had plenty of other assets to keep me going for years. If I looked at my money as just one big chunk, I may have been tempted to sell, rather than buy. I know it’s a mind trick, but it works.

+1. Thinking in terms of buckets helps me relax, and I took advantage of the ‘sale’ in March. The mind trick really works.

[L Carlisle]

Very interesting topic.

Thanks for all the comments. I am retiring on September 1st and my wife and I are 56. We are really looking forward to retirement. I let our money in our IRA's and 401k ride in February. I was contemplating moving them into a money market fund or bond fund but decided against it partially because I was unsure Covid 19 would be as big as it is and we had a big 2 week family trip planned in Germany. I figured I would just cross my fingers and hope for the best. We were in Berling as they started shutting down everything in Germany. 3 days before we came home they discontinued all nonessential travel from Europe to the US. It was a really crazy time to be in Germany.

Anyways to make a long story short,,, After about a month contemplating moving my money I finally bit the bullet a few days ago. I moved all my 401k into Fidelity's Stable Value Fund and all my IRA's into 80% Bond ETF's. Hopefully I only have to keep my money in low interest bearing funds for less than a year.

Do you have any suggestions? What are you doing and are you concerned about the market with the upcoming election, massive printing US dollars/mass inflation, low bond rates, high unemployment....

[Rdub]

L Carlisle- I retired 3 years ago at 47. What works for some, may not work for others. I developed my personal plan over many years and came up with a personal Top 10 for a successful Plan:
1) Spend less than you make (LBYM). Document your actual spend for several years to help forecast spend by category.
2) Stick to your plan and review annually.
3) Diversification / Asset Allocation (non-correlated assets. A piece of all markets) 90% of portfolio returns come from this.
4) Keep Turnover low (avoid unnecessary trades- reduces costs, taxes and bad mistakes)
5) Utilize low cost Index funds/ETFs
6) Keep taxes low (Index funds and low turnover are tax efficient, rebalance 1 year +1 Day for LT cap gains, asset location (tax inefficient funds in tax sheltered accounts).
7) Discipline- think long term whent he market goes south and stick with your plan (see #2)
8) Keep it simple, don't get exotic and don't get greedy.
9) Rebalance once per year
10) Keep individual stocks below 5% of NW.


With all the scary news, I try to stick with my Plan on Asset allocation and rebalancing. It makes it easier for me to make smaller moves to rebalance my AA (+/- 5pts from target), than to make big bets with my portfolio picking tops and bottoms.



As far as the election, if Biden wins, I expect tax rates to increase. As such, I would try to backdoor more than planned 401k to Roth conversions this year. I would also likely rebalance my portfolio and incur the cap gains this year versus waiting until early 2021 to do it. That's just trying to take advantage of lower tax rates. I wouldn't change my AA based off Dems/Rep since historically returns are positive under either.

[rodi]

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R Last Tuesday, July 21st, the sum of my investment portfolio plus bank accounts was not just doing fine, but actually totaled MORE than I have EVER had in my entire life!!!! I think that is pretty doggone cool considering the state of the world, and how the news media seems to think that it will crater the stock market. Seems we buy-and-hold'ers are doing just fine, thank-you-very-much. Another thing I like about doing nothing, is that it takes very little effort and fits in with my retirement lifestyle and philosophy.

Ruh Roh..... The oracle from NOLA has spoken... commence the market crash.

[Dean56]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack I feel fine. I didn’t sell in ‘87, ‘00 or ‘08 - so asking in a month isn’t likely to change anything. And so far selling off in March was a costly mistake...

I agree 100%

I didn't sell, I actually bought more stock in early April. Very happy with my decision.

[RobbieB]

Yawn.

Much ado about nothing. All back to normal. No losses, no gains.
No drama, no buying or selling. This is all so boring.

[FIYes]

To quote James Brown, “I feel good!” I have had a 60% stock allocation for years. At the beginning of the year I was at 62%. In February I started getting a little concerned and decided to go to a 55% allocation. In March, I did what I do best...nothing. In June I went to a 50% stocks. In 2008 I did nothing but I was still working and still adding to my 401k. Now that I am older and retired I prefer an even more conservative allocation....especially since it makes no sense to me that the stock market is doing so well! Really, my financial strengths are LBYM and doing nothing.

[PaddyMac]

We sold some S&P 500 from our taxable account that had 100% cap gains at the bottom and moved it into Roth 401k, and a bit more conservative. So rode it back up inside Roth space. We missed a few days of gains but no regrets.

I sold some inside my SEP-IRA last month and am letting in sit in cash until we need it.

I turned 59.5 in July so whoo-hooo! The lockbox is open!

We expect the stock market to get in touch with reality at some point. Wall St. is not in sync with Main Street right now.

[lordjust]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lawrencewendall July hit a record for me with 3.4k in dividends for the month. I'll keep plowing money in monthly as long as the dividends hold up.

What do you own?

[lordjust]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dean56 I agree 100% I didn't sell, I actually bought more stock in early April. Very happy with my decision.

I was one of those that sold some in Feb... MSFT and NVDA. Those that have followed these two stocks know how bad a move that was for me. I should have stuck with my gut.. I will NEVER EVER do that again...

Otherwise I am good.. I moved from very heavy tech to VBIAX to be "safe" as I am planning on retiring soon. I am in QQQ, VGT, some AMZN, MSFT, and a lot of BND, VBIAX. Just in case people wonder ... I probably am at a 5% return YTD (off the cuff).

[Lawrencewendall]

Quote:

Originally Posted by lordjust What do you own?

I don't mind sharing. My situation is different than most. I have other streams of income so I can afford to be aggressive. Here's a look at what I have:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[RobLJ]

As of today, I'm down .11% YTD despite cutting the stock allocation 5% in January and another 5% in February.

I'll take that any day, given the pandemic.

I do need to combine DW's rollover IRAs into one provider, and rollover my 403b to an IRA (assuming this doesn't affect my state employee health coverage). PITA.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobbieB Yawn. Much ado about nothing. All back to normal. No losses, no gains. No drama, no buying or selling. This is all so boring.

[pb4uski]

I'm feeling like I am 4 months miles into a 26.2 month mile marathon... and Heartbreak Hill isn't even in sight yet.