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Old 08-03-2020, 11:44 PM   #141
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How do I feel after 4 months? I feel more melancholy each day, seeing deaths around the world and people's livelihood being destroyed.

About my own financial situation, my stash is still intact. It will have to get really bad before I worry about not being able to afford the bare necessities; most of my money is for the pleasure of counting, as we have enough "stuff" and do not crave anything more.

It's hard to describe, but I do not feel the same anxiety as I did back in the 2000 tech bust, or the 2008 Great Recession. I just feel sad.
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Old 08-04-2020, 04:05 AM   #142
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I feel fine for DW and with a rising equity glidepath strategy - which was just plain lucky timing. Up 2% YTD, including withdrawls. Bonds are in FUAMX.

While working with a steady income, held fast at 100% equity during dot.com bust and financial crisis - but it hurt to look at balances back then. Now that we are withdrawing - conservative allocation rules most of the day. Exception - my stock allocation is NEE, to take advantage of Net Unrealized Appreciation capital gains for the next few years and perform Roth Conversions before pension and SS income starts.

However, concerns abound for others in an uncertain economy - both family and community. We are donating to the local food bank, and holding my breath for job security of the kids.
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Old 08-04-2020, 08:33 AM   #143
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Stayed at 50/50 allocation, many folks underestimate their emotional reactions when the market takes a dive and I think 50/50 helps me avoid that (especially with 4 years left to go until retirement).



I know investment time periods can always be construed to fit an investment advisor's narrative but Blackrock makes an interesting point here:



https://www.blackrock.com/us/individ...less-va-us.pdf
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Old 08-04-2020, 09:21 AM   #144
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My wife and I (62/70) sat tight in March with a substantial portfolio that was 70% stock, 20% bonds 10% cash, and we feel okay with that. With inflation indexed pensions, annuities and social security more than meeting our financial needs, we felt comfortable assuming some risk in our investments. Our portfolio dropped about 10-15% in the spring, which scared us a bit, but had recovered nearly fully by end of July.

That said, we also feel like we dodged a bullet. This economy and pandemic seem an enormous, once in a lifetime, disaster with the market (even if it doesn't collapse) artificially inflated by massive debt and reams of cheap money.

So yesterday we rebalanced our portfolio to 50% cash, 10% bonds and 40% stock (with 15% in international funds as a dollar hedge).

Should help us sleep easier!
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Old 08-04-2020, 07:22 PM   #145
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I'm substantially better off financially because of COVID.

I have been able to increase my number of shares, in what I held in January (VYM, VYMI, VT), by around 23% so far this year.

At the same time I also have tax loss harvested around a -$50k capital loss I can use for taxes.

I've also lowered my cost basis.

In terms of work its also been great because I've been able to telecommute since April, which has been fantastic. I don't want to go back to working in an office when this is over.
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Old 08-04-2020, 10:55 PM   #146
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Originally Posted by Lawrencewendall View Post
I don't mind sharing. My situation is different than most. I have other streams of income so I can afford to be aggressive. Here's a look at what I have:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
Those are some pretty high yields. Nice income stream.
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How do you feel now? (4 Months later)
Old 08-04-2020, 11:35 PM   #147
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How do you feel now? (4 Months later)

Im fine. Im much higher than where I was before the March breakdown. I sold and bought low. I focused most allocation on small caps when the Dow was 19000-24000, so now that things have recovered .. im moving back most to the s&p 500. Im at 43%-57%, but will probably hit 50%-50% by year end.
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Old 08-05-2020, 12:48 AM   #148
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Still at 100% equities, sleeping well at night, living on the dividends. No significant trades since 2018, just re-investment of excess dividends. Biggest holdings BEP, BIP.
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Old 08-05-2020, 04:55 AM   #149
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I was down multiple six figures, but took no action. Now I am up for the year. If I had tried to do anything I think I would have been wrong so I am currently rather pleased (and surprised).
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Old 08-05-2020, 07:33 AM   #150
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Those are some pretty high yields. Nice income stream.
Don't get too excited. The largest of that income stream, CML, is 75% return of capital (principal) and not income. About 72% of the second largest incoem stream, distributions from GEO, are return of capital.

TNSTAAFL.
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Old 08-05-2020, 07:44 AM   #151
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Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
Don't get too excited. The largest of that income stream, CML, is 75% return of capital (principal) and not income. About 72% of the second largest incoem stream, distributions from GEO, are return of capital.

TNSTAAFL.
Pb4uski on high yield evaluation = Hobo on Ham sandwich
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Old 08-05-2020, 07:54 AM   #152
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I'm surprised I get so much flak for choosing a dividends only withdrawal strategy using etfs VYM, VYMI, and VT. What I choose to do is peanuts compared to trying to market time.

In the 2008 recession I tried to market time and got out of the market and I learned from that. You never get out of the market. Always stay long because the turn around will happen too quickly and you will be second guessing the rally the whole time and miss it.

I lost a lot of money market timing in 2008. This time I stayed fully invested (while tax loss harvesting as much as possible) and caught the whole rally back up.

I'm significantly better off this time in terms of number of shares. Portfolio value is almost back to all time highs and I have significant capital loss for taxes.

I increased my share count by 23%.... I'm ecstatic!
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Old 08-05-2020, 07:58 AM   #153
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Pb4uski on high yield evaluation = Hobo on Ham sandwich
I only knew about CML's distributions being principally return of capital because it had come up with the same poster on another thread... the where to park brokerage cash thread.
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Old 08-06-2020, 02:18 AM   #154
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...late to the thread.

Fundamentally we have gone from charging about 4-5% of our life style on credit cards in 2019 to charging close to 50% of our lifestyle on credit cards in 2020 (since March).

By we, I mean collectively the share of gdp being financed by stimulus or increased “balance sheet”. (In 2019 the deficit was about 4-5% of gdp. Of the 10 trillion in gdp over 6 months more than 1/2 is balance sheet or stimulus).

It’s looking like this will continue until atleast some time next year.

All I know is when it comes time to pay it off it usually means no “extras” for a few years while we pay it down. Or if we elect not to pay it down we will pay interest on it indefinitely. There is no free lunch. The question is what and who will pay for the 2020 free lunch we have had stimulus wise and balance sheet wise??

In all seriousness I think the way out of it may be inflation The fed will keep st rates low even with inflation and the US debt will largely move to short term debt as long term gets expensive. The debt won’t get paid down per se. It will just become less of an issue as a % of gdp.

Maybe tips, gold, and real estate are the best hedges against this
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Old 08-06-2020, 04:28 AM   #155
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Originally Posted by BeachOrCity View Post
...late to the thread.

Fundamentally we have gone from charging about 4-5% of our life style on credit cards in 2019 to charging close to 50% of our lifestyle on credit cards in 2020 (since March).

By we, I mean collectively the share of gdp being financed by stimulus or increased “balance sheet”. (In 2019 the deficit was about 4-5% of gdp. Of the 10 trillion in gdp over 6 months more than 1/2 is balance sheet or stimulus).

It’s looking like this will continue until atleast some time next year.

All I know is when it comes time to pay it off it usually means no “extras” for a few years while we pay it down. Or if we elect not to pay it down we will pay interest on it indefinitely. There is no free lunch. The question is what and who will pay for the 2020 free lunch we have had stimulus wise and balance sheet wise??

In all seriousness I think the way out of it may be inflation The fed will keep st rates low even with inflation and the US debt will largely move to short term debt as long term gets expensive. The debt won’t get paid down per se. It will just become less of an issue as a % of gdp.

Maybe tips, gold, and real estate are the best hedges against this

I always seem to misfire when I try to invest based on my interpretation of world events. You make the case for inflation and how to invest but there’s also a pretty good case for deflation.
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Old 08-06-2020, 07:39 AM   #156
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I always seem to misfire when I try to invest based on my interpretation of world events. You make the case for inflation and how to invest but there’s also a pretty good case for deflation.
I agree with this, hence why lots of question marks. My point is that all this "balance sheet" and stimulus has to have some repercussion. We could always end up like Japan w/ 200% debt to GDP and a zombie economy propped up by government spending (and ownership) of the commercial sector.
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Old 08-06-2020, 08:09 AM   #157
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Sold about half in early Feb, bought back in in early March, sold everything in mid April... have watched the markets tick upward and then mostly sideways. Things would have to rise 22% for my overall situation to be worse than it was in February.

I don't like being out of the market, but I feel a lot safer, for now. After election I will start to reinvest some at a time depending on where the market is at (if it's where it is now or much higher, I'll invest less, if it's lower than it is now I'll feel a lot more inclined to put a larger amount back in)

My overall feeling about this year is that I timed the market against my good judgement... I got mostly lucky with my timing. I won't do this again... and I'm slightly nervous about being on the sideline, however I don't think there is a lot of upside that I could miss out on in the next 18 months. (famous last words?)
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Old 08-07-2020, 08:14 AM   #158
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I took a bunch off the table very early in the pandemic . Some I put back . The rest is just sitting in a money market . There may be a lot of financial pain ahead so I wanted several years of safe money .
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Old 08-07-2020, 10:57 AM   #159
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I was down multiple six figures, but took no action. Now I am up for the year. If I had tried to do anything I think I would have been wrong so I am currently rather pleased (and surprised).
I was also down multiple six figures but bought more on the way down. I have recovered everything and gained an extra six figure. Surprised how fast things have moved. The great recession was my first experience with being down six figure, staying the course, and seeing opportunities. This time I was able to take advantage of the opportunities.
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Old 08-07-2020, 11:20 AM   #160
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I only knew about CML's distributions being principally return of capital because it had come up with the same poster on another thread... the where to park brokerage cash thread.
Do you mean CLM?
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