Well, these are two different issues. Spot and futures price *should* converge as the contract comes due. I would say with a product that can be stored and *still* has a futures contract (gold) I can definitely see the futures price (as an indicator of speculator activity) driving the spot price. However, with oil, 90%+ of that oil is used as fast as it comes out of the ground (correct?), so in a way it is perishable (demand/need is too great) and the speculator activity would be massively dampened by the real spot activity. I mean, you can't just *sit* on oil, your economy runs on it. The closeness of the two prices could be a result of many things, and in any case is "normal" as the contract comes due (minus delivery costs). One thing that could explain these two prices "pre-converging" so to speak is simple supply/demand. Oil *can* be stored but there is a finite supply (say for the month of August) and we generally want to use most of that oil in August... so people who need oil in August will buy the future at today's price (with or without fear of a bubble) and since it *can* be stored... there is no downward pressure on the price. If oil were extremely perishable... I would imagine the spot price would stay lower than the month-out future. I mean, it won't *go bad* but the trucks must roll. Oil is strange.
Futures contracts are "marked to market" daily. You pay (or receive) the difference between your August sweet oil contract and today's sweet oil spot price. In august, you have the option to settle the contract by taking physical ownership (or enforcing the sale) of the oil. So (minus delivery/holding costs) the prices almost always converge.
Traditionally, hedgers want the price to stay the same, and speculators want it to change. Hedgers want to be able to predict the price in the future for forecasting... and what better way than to "pre-pay" for your hog bellies without taking the cashflow hit or "pre-sell" before your wheat is ready? A price lock-in is essentially what a futures contract is to the hedger. The speculator is purely a gambler. The hedger doesn't really *care* (not necessarily) if they lose money on the contract because the spot price went *down*, they are busily making muffins with their wheat, or driving their trucks, or whatever.
Now, if there *is* a bubble, the speculators could be simply dominating the market. Basically the trading volume could be swinging over to more and more speculator-speculator action. To me and my limited knowledge, this might be a bubble indicator. Also, if the hedger has "given in to temptation" and has decided to not simply hedge but play speculator as well... either by overbuying contracts or holding/hoarding the physical asset... then that might be bubble behavior too. All this should be measurable.
If people in the futures market who regularly deal in the physical asset (and are therefore able to) start holding/hoarding, then this would (to me) be an inversion of the traditional role a futures market plays in the economy.
If people aren't holding/hoarding, or if the supply isn't being artificially lowered (tampered with), I don't see how there can be a bubble in oil. Because if people are, in fact, paying the "bubble" spot price, *and* then actually consuming the good, well, then that's just good old supply & demand. If you are willing to pay $8USD/gallon (as they are in europe) and then burn that gas... well, you are setting/proving the demand price. If supply is being tampered with (lowered), then that would drive prices up in a bubble-like way. I'm not sure I'd call that a bubble though.
I mean people only drive up bubble prices because they think they are going to hold the goods (tulips, houses, stocks) for a little while and turn around and sell it for more. Is this happening in any significant quantity in the oil market? My impression was, it is not.
But George Sorous says it *is* a bubble
George Soros: rocketing oil price is a bubble - Telegraph
"Speculation... is increasingly affecting the price," he said. "The price has this parabolic shape which is characteristic of bubbles," he said. 'We face the most serious recession of our lifetime' The comments are significant, not only because Mr Soros is the world's most prominent hedge fund investor but also because many experts have claimed speculation is only a minor factor affecting crude prices.
I mean, that's it, right? Prices are going up like nuts, but if the futures market is functioning normally, then, no. No bubble.
So... are they functioning normally? Has the trading volume patterns shifted? Have traditional roles changed? Because if all Soros has is his parabola (well, HALF a parabola) then maybe he's wrong, or lying.
In other words, if people are paying these bubble prices and using the oil to drive their economies... then when the bubble pops it will be a GOOD thing. The only people who will suffer are the speculators. We *need* and are *using* all this oil.
Are there any historical parallels?
And I'm convinced that the oil companies are keeping gasoline low here in the states because of the election. All this is weird and uncharted territory.
This is no bubble.
(sorry this is so long, didn't have time to make it shorter)
joe