How is the credit bubble affecting your city?

[jazz4cash]

Washington DC
Very, very spotty, but pretty bad overall....many problems beneath the surface. Very popular topic for the local newspapers. Very glad not to be buying, selling, or refinancing.

[HFWR]

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcont...ing.1379519a.h

"Pre-owned home sales dropped 3 percent from a year earlier with 8,549 homes sold, according to new statistics from the North Texas Real Estate Information System.
Pending sales for August were also down about 5 percent.
Median sales prices were up a scant 1 percent, but that increase is mostly due to the fall-off in sales of low priced homes, analysts say.
With July's decline, total home sales are down about 6 percent from the first seven months of 2006.
At the end of last month about 50,000 homes were listed for sale through the Realtors' multiple listing service. That's 5 percent more than a year earlier. And the average time it takes to sell a house in the Dallas-Fort Worth area - 69 days - is about 8 percent longer than last year.
At current sales rates there is about a 7-month supply of pre-owned homes on the market."

[maddythebeagle]

There is a 900k house down the road that has been reduced into the 800k range from what I hear....The owner is the widow of a local manufactured house business...My impression is that they are in financial trouble.....What I find funny about all this is it isnt "poor" people that nec. are getting in trouble...

[Achiever51]

A house in my Michigan neighborhood just sold after being on the market for more than a year. The last owner purchased it for $475,000 four years ago. Last year, the family relocated to California and tried to carry both mortgages while this house was on the market. Originally listed for $499k, I understand they rejected several offers submitted slightly below the asking price.

Fast forward one year later: The house just closed at $347,000

In a near by neighborhood, I just attended a foreclosure auction on a home appraised at more than $900,000 -- in an area of $1 million+ homes. Lots of interest at the auction...but the highest bid was $650,000.

Ouch.

[ndfmnlf]

I am relocating from Illinois to Sacramento, California in 6 months. I will have to sell my house in Illinois and rent in Sacramento until the dust settles down. The problem is, my Illinois house may sit on the market for at least a year given how sluggish things are. Which means I will be losing money paying mortgage interest on this house while simultaneously renting in another part of the country. I have enough liquid assets to pay off my mortgage. I wonder if I should just pay it off now...then sell the house. That way the mortgage interest will not be a drain on my pocket. BTW, I can't rent the house out due to existing covenants in my subdivision prohibiting this. Your comments are appreciated.

[happy2bretired]

I know a good portion of you guys don't like reality TV but I started watching a show called "Flipping Out" on BRAVO last night. That guy has to be in trouble right now. He owns 4 or 5 fixer uppers at a time and they are not the run of the mill houses either. He usually pays about a million for one and try to double his money after fixing them. I just can't imagine doing something like that right now. I think he said he only had $125,000 at one point during the program last night. It's insane.

[Sue J]

I'm pretty sure these are actors, not actual flippers with their money on the line. It seems to be a parody of all the house flipping shows. If you look at it as a parody, it's HYSTERICAL!

The guy's OCD, the assistant having to answer the phone with that ridiculous script, the whole LA vibe. It reminds me of the movie LA Story.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ndfmnlf I am relocating from Illinois to Sacramento, California in 6 months. I will have to sell my house in Illinois and rent in Sacramento until the dust settles down. The problem is, my Illinois house may sit on the market for at least a year given how sluggish things are. Which means I will be losing money paying mortgage interest on this house while simultaneously renting in another part of the country. I have enough liquid assets to pay off my mortgage. I wonder if I should just pay it off now...then sell the house. That way the mortgage interest will not be a drain on my pocket. BTW, I can't rent the house out due to existing covenants in my subdivision prohibiting this. Your comments are appreciated.

If I were you, I'd price the house low, fix it up and "stage" it, and offer to pay closing costs. If it needs a new roof, have that done, and think about letting the buyer negotiate to keep the appliances. Do your homework and find a top realtor to help you sell it. Then lean on him, gently.

If you can manage to sell it, even at a lower price, it could still be to your advantage under the circumstances.

If you pay off your house, you'd be losing investment income from the money you used to pay it off. Since we are talking about perhaps a year, I would suggest not bothering at this point and instead, putting all of your effort into selling it.

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Want2retire Since we are talking about perhaps a year, I would suggest not bothering at this point and instead, putting all of your effort into selling it.

I second Wants2Retire's advice. The first cut is the kindest. Price the thing to sell, get your money and head west with a clear head.

Ha

[citrine]

I agree with Ha and Want2Retire.....price it to sell and get rid of it. The more attractive the price, the more response you will get. It's always good to end one chapter of your life before starting another.

[teejayevans]

Quote:

Originally Posted by citrine I agree with Ha and Want2Retire.....price it to sell and get rid of it. The more attractive the price, the more response you will get. It's always good to end one chapter of your life before starting another.

Ifs its a first mortgage, walk away, leave the mortgage company to
take the loss, they're the ones who let you get into the mess.
So, you'll have bad credit for 10 years and won't be able to get a
loan, that might be a good thing.
TJ

[ndfmnlf]

Quote:

Ifs its a first mortgage, walk away, leave the mortgage company to take the loss, they're the ones who let you get into the mess. So, you'll have bad credit for 10 years and won't be able to get a loan, that might be a good thing. TJ

Actually I bought my house 10 years ago using a 30 year fixed mortgage with 20% downpayment which I could pay off today with cash I have on hand. I believe the house has appreciated enough that even with the current downturn, I will come out ahead with some capital gains. I was leaning towards paying off the mortgage until a job relocation came on the horizon, so I want to have as much cash as possible, keeping the powder dry so to speak. I am looking forward to paying for a house in Sacramento (where I'm relocating to) in cash hopefully when the market bottoms out in the next 2 years.

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ndfmnlf I am looking forward to paying for a house in Sacramento (where I'm relocating to) in cash hopefully when the market bottoms out in the next 2 years.

Just curious-but why do you specify that you want to pay cash for your new house? Who knows what mortgage rates will be- they may be 4 1/2%. Would you still want to pay cash?

There have been a lot of discussions on this forum about paying off a mortgage in retirement with good points both ways. But it seems to me that the decision is largely contingent on conditions, both in the mortgage and housing markets and in ones's own financial picture.

Personally, I would almost always borrow whenever a low fixed rate were available, even in retirement. Holding down a job- remove the "almost".

Ha

[jIMOh]

Quote:

Originally Posted by FIREdreamer I have noticed something new in my mid-size, southern city in the past month or so. Red "for sale at auction" signs in front of foreclosed houses are popping up all over the place (even in good neighborhoods), houses are sitting for months and months on the market (even in good school districts), stores don't seem to be as busy as they used to (many stores have closed recently)... What's more, I start seeing people trying the sell their luxury cars (newer SUVs, lexuses, jags, maybe 2-3 years old tops) on their own. They park them on their lawn with "for sale" signs... I've seen people do that before with old beaters, but not with perfectly good looking, luxury cars. The curious thing is that my town has a vibrant economy, fairly high wages (due to a highly qualified work force), low cost of living, very low unemployment and a large number of newcomers every year which helps the city grow at a good pace. The RE market is supposedly healthy (if you talk to realtors) but it does not feel this way. So even though I live in a city with a healthy economy, in the past few months, I have seen signs that more and more people are heel over their heads with debt. Do you see the same thing where you live?

maybe overtime went down...
maybe bonuses weren't paid

symptom of creidt bubble for sure.

10 years ago+ I saw this when I worked at Xerox as a manufacturing engineer. mandatory overtime... people would be getting time and half and buying boats, sports cars etc...

then when overtime was cut, for sale signs on the bulletin boards were common place.

[ndfmnlf]

Quote:

Just curious-but why do you specify that you want to pay cash for your new house? Who knows what mortgage rates will be- they may be 4 1/2%. Would you still want to pay cash?

While nobody knows what the rates will be at that time, my decision will largely be based on "peace of mind" considerations rather than a purely financial calculation. Anyway, thanks for your input.

[A854321]

Tough to get a no-doc loan.

Mortgage crunch hits Bay Area hard because of jumbo loans

[A854321]

Curious.

What is going on in Detroit? Auto worker layoffs? Loans to low-income immigrants?

500 Top foreclosure zip codes - Jun. 19, 2007

[Achiever51]

Quote:

Originally Posted by A854321 Curious. What is going on in Detroit? Auto worker layoffs? Loans to low-income immigrants? 500 Top foreclosure zip codes - Jun. 19, 2007

Just looked at the list -- all of the Detroit zips are within the city limits and many are in the lowest income neighborhoods of Detroit. The unemployment rate in Detroit is > 8% (I think the last number I saw was 8.2%)

Jobs are flying out of Michigan, along with a lot of talented workers.For example, Chrysler, the largest auto employer of Detroit workers, is in the midst of cutting 16% of its workforce -- 11,000 hourly jobs plus 2,000 salaried workers.

Here's how the University of Michigan's economists put it:

Michigan's job-loss streak is the longest since Great Depression

ANN ARBOR, Mich.—Michigan has endured six straight years of job losses and the next two years will see even more—the longest stretch of employment loss in the state since the Great Depression, say University of Michigan economists.

Since mid-2000 to the end of this year, the state will have lost 336,000 jobs and it will lose another 33,000 jobs in the next two years, they say. Most of these losses are in manufacturing.

"The Michigan economy is fighting its way through a long stretch of stormy weather, trying to ride out the turbulence generated by the ongoing restructuring among the domestic automakers," said U-M economist George Fulton. "With Big Three market share continuing to decline for 2007 and 2008, auto industry downsizing will not have run its course by mid-2007.

The state will lose more than 40,000 manufacturing jobs over the course of this year, nearly 30,000 next year and another 24,000 during 2008, they say. The auto industry will account for about 70 percent of these manufacturing job losses.

"The state economy reflects not simply the fortunes of the auto industry as a whole, but in particular, the well-being of the traditional domestic producers, or Big Three—General Motors, Ford and the Chrysler Group," Crary said. "From 2001 to 2005, the Big Three's market share plummeted 7 percentage points. The situation went from bad to worse this year as soaring gasoline prices had consumers tightening their belts and focusing on fuel economy. It now appears that Big Three market share will plunge by nearly 3 percentage points this year."

Despite the continued bleak outlook for manufacturing employment, Michigan's economy will add jobs in other sectors—namely, in services, the forecast shows. After adding more than 20,000 jobs this year, service industries will gain nearly 13,000 jobs during 2007 and just under 17,000 during 2008.

Almost half of these gains will occur in private education and health services, the only major industry to have grown throughout the extended downturn in the Michigan economy. About 40 percent of the additions will come from professional and business services and from leisure and hospitality services over the next two years.

In all, the U-M economists say that in any analysis of Michigan's economic prospects, the "elephant in the room" clearly is the well-being of the Big Three automakers.

"The risks associated with the auto industry remind us of how vulnerable the Michigan economy is to the uncertainties that lately seem to define the domestic companies," Fulton said. "These troubled times in Michigan stress how critical it is for these companies to get their houses in order.
"More to the point, though, these troubled times scream out for a strategy of investing in other activities, activities that show promise in the new economy. The issue is being discussed frequently these days in Michigan, and a fairly compelling argument has been made for investing in a more highly skilled work force and growing the knowledge-based economy. Such a strategy would be in step with the evolving new economy, recognizing that regardless of the fate of the domestic auto industry, we are not going back to the good old days."

[lazygood4nothinbum]

yikes, on walk last night found two more houses for sale in my area and one has an "auction" sign on it. the other one has two new jaguars parked in the driveway (dopes). that makes a total of about 6 homes for sale (two with just a sale by owner sign out front) out of the over 200 homes in my immediate area.

[Khan]

I just got a postcard from a local Realtor, informing me that a house on the street has sold. I live in a blue collar neighborhood, with many of the houses built in the '50s.

----------------------------
Beds: 2 | Bath: 1 | Square Feet: 952
Price Per Square Foot: $76
Listed: July 26, 2007
$72,500
----------------------------

It says listed July 26, but it's been empty for more than a year (has been maintained) since the owner died of old age.