cashflo2u2
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Oct 31, 2007
- Messages
- 332
I'll be it starts to get bandied around in the next few weeks. I'm not sure if there is a technical definition of that like their is the "R: word.
If it takes deflation to get a depression, I don't think we will get one in the US with our modern financial institutions and current political attitudes.
We'll just get another bubble, after a short scare.
Ha
Less than a day, heard it this morning on BBC from some econ professor, then BBC reported FTSE was up about 1/2 %.How long before we hear the "D" word...
Ding, ding, ding, we have a winnah!!! Give that man a seegar! Now for the bonus round: where will the next bubble be? Commodities, anyone? MAybe Brazilian equities?
Now I am off to look at 80+ page earnings press releases...
I'll be it starts to get bandied around in the next few weeks. I'm not sure if there is a technical definition of that like their is the "R: word.
And just where is this depression coming from? The 1930’s had high real interest rates due to deflation, with securities being re-priced on that basis. Nothing magic about it.
Today we have 4.5% 30 year Treasury bonds, 5.5 % 30year mortgages, stock earnings yield about 6%, core inflation around 3%. Certainly not high in real terms.
Unemployment is up to 5%, which used to be considered the minimum that it could be.
"I thought a recession was defined as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP, which we haven't had yet. Nearly everyone fears one but very few are actually predicting one."
Which is why I can't figure the 'doom and gloom' mindset. No recession yet.