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01-17-2008, 11:19 AM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 1,085
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How low can it go?
As of now, the Dow is at 12,298 and falling. What is your prediction for the lowest the Dow will go this year?
To make it worthwhile, the winner will receive a $10 contribution to the tax-deferred variable annuity of his/her choice!! 
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01-17-2008, 11:22 AM
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#2
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,193
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by David1961
As of now, the Dow is at 12,298 and falling. What is your prediction for the lowest the Dow will go this year?
To make it worthwhile, the winner will receive a $10 contribution to the tax-deferred variable annuity of his/her choice!! |
 It's really amazing what's happening, isn't it?
Pretty harrowing. I guess we just have to take it as it happens. Maybe tomorrow will be show a big upwards surge.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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01-17-2008, 11:26 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,703
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I think the average peak-to-trough during a recession is about 28%, which would be just a hair above DOW 10,000. Not a prediction, of course. Just the level of volatility you should expect from stocks.
__________________
Emancipated from wage-slavery since 2002
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01-17-2008, 11:30 AM
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#4
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 333
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David1961
What is your prediction for the lowest the Dow will go this year?
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11,235
Which happens to be the digit-reversal of my old Zip code, and if that's not an accurate predictor, what is?
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01-17-2008, 11:48 AM
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#5
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert the Red
11,235
Which happens to be the digit-reversal of my old Zip code
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Whitefish Bay?
__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.
As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
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01-17-2008, 11:52 AM
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#6
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 159
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Just remember that as it falls bargins can be had. The time to buy is when it falls not when it goes up. 10,750 is my answer and I'm sticking to it.
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01-17-2008, 11:55 AM
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#7
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,193
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twaddle
I think the average peak-to-trough during a recession is about 28%, which would be just a hair above DOW 10,000. Not a prediction, of course. Just the level of volatility you should expect from stocks.
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Well gosh, that's not nearly as bad as I would have thought. We've already gone from fourteen thousand something to the low twelve thousands, so we're halfway there.
I was thinking more like 9821 or something like that. Yikes. A caveat - - remember my crystal ball usually functions more as an inverse predictor and never seems to be at all correct.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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01-17-2008, 12:04 PM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,703
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire
Well gosh, that's not nearly as bad as I would have thought. We've already gone from fourteen thousand something to the low twelve thousands, so we're halfway there.
I was thinking more like 9821 or something like that. Yikes. A caveat - - remember my crystal ball usually functions more as an inverse predictor and never seems to be at all correct.
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Well, I was just giving an average. I suppose if we really wanted to talk about how low it could go, I could give you my spiel about how Dec 2007 will be considered the start of our 20-year-long Japan-like period. 
The Chinese and Saudis have lots of cash. Let's just hope they start buying our assets soon.
__________________
Emancipated from wage-slavery since 2002
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01-17-2008, 12:16 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,702
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert the Red
11,235
Which happens to be the digit-reversal of my old Zip code, and if that's not an accurate predictor, what is?
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I hope to god this doesnt work, because one of my old zip codes backwards is 06710. Its not that good before you flip it backwards either.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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01-17-2008, 12:34 PM
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#10
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 333
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa
Whitefish Bay?
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Shorewood, actually.
I always remembered the Zip code 53211 because it is the digit-reversal of the first 5 Fibonacci numbers. A PhD in Math is good for something!
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01-17-2008, 12:46 PM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 8,994
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Zero? 
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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01-17-2008, 12:47 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,703
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I would buy the entire economy if it went to zero. 
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Emancipated from wage-slavery since 2002
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01-17-2008, 12:52 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 8,994
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Actually, I'm nibbling away just to keep my stock allocation % in line. Might be nibbling for quite sometime. 
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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01-17-2008, 12:59 PM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 1,322
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There's a ledge at 12110 that would represent the one year lows from last March. I expect at least a temporary bounce from that point, but if it goes through that, we may take out 11000 over the next few weeks.
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01-17-2008, 01:02 PM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,703
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Interesting, the S&P 500 has already blown past the March lows, but I didn't realize that the Dow was still hanging tough. You can probably thank MO for that.
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Emancipated from wage-slavery since 2002
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01-17-2008, 01:08 PM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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wouldn't be surprised if the SP500 goes to around 800 before it's all over. remember that the big ARM reset still has months to go for this year and it takes 3-12 months for a home to go into foreclosure from the time the lien owner starts the process. there are probably a lot of future write offs only starting the process now that will be news in a few months.
this will cause spending for everything from servers to consumer items to drop. and we are still at a historic level of stocks being owned on margin so as prices drop a lot of people will have to sell
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01-17-2008, 01:15 PM
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#17
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: At The Cafe
Posts: 6,873
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I see anything above 11000 as froth on the latte. Honestly, I don't see this as a "down" market.
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01-17-2008, 01:16 PM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 49,712
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__________________
Numbers is hard
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01-17-2008, 01:36 PM
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#19
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,193
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There wouldn't be any left, because I would buy it all when it hit one!! Mine, mine, mine. Nya, nya. 
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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01-17-2008, 02:01 PM
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#20
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 488
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twaddle
The Chinese and Saudis have lots of cash. Let's just hope they start buying our assets soon.
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That would be great. We could all be working for them.
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