Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Anything can happen
Old 12-03-2019, 12:40 PM   #261
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 659
Anything can happen

Here are the stock market trends for Japan, Emerging Market, Europe and USA.

USA is the exception. However, "what if" the USA market crashes and the USA market takes decades to recover because of the 22 trillion dollar debt?

How will your retirement turn out if the USA market follow the exact same trend as Japan, Emerging Markets and Europe? Can you take this risk?

IMO, this risk is unacceptable to me and therefore I am 100% treasury bonds to safeguard my retirement that I have already earned during the bull market. If this risk is acceptable to you and you have other resources, then leave your money in the stock market and assume that this possibility will NEVER happen.

+2% in treasury bonds is better than -40% in a stock market crash which may take decades to recover. Currently money is flowing into the USA market because there is no other place to invest internationally.

However, once foreign investors have determined there are better investment elsewhere, they will sell US stocks in a heartbeat. I suspect this is what happened to Japan, Europe and Emerging Markets.

vchan2177 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 12-03-2019, 04:43 PM   #262
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
ownyourfuture's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 1,087
I'm 57 & I've always managed my own. I do the asset allocation thing with my 401(k).
My single biggest account is a 700 K taxable brokerage account at Fidelity, which is mostly for income (conservative)
It's performance is very predictable.

On a day like today, where the averages are down as follows:
Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.01%)
S&P 500 (-0.66%)
NASDAQ (-0.55%)
Russell 2k (-0.31%)

Mine is only down (-0.09%)
Of course it lags the averages on up days, but I can live with that.
__________________
"No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast"
ownyourfuture is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2019, 07:31 PM   #263
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 29,180
Quote:
Originally Posted by vchan2177 View Post
..... A FA should be consulted because a FA has the training, certification and experience that most people do not have. (Disclosure: My daughter is a FA with Charles Schwab.) A second opinion does not hurt and would only cost you $200 or so for 1 hour of consultation. ....
While I am in no way disparaging your daughter and she may well be the exception, in my experience most FAs are empty suits at best and pushy salespeople at worst.

Also, we have had members here who have tried to get a second opinion on their plan and were willing to pay for it but unless they were interested in a AUM relationship there was no interest by FAs in spending time for a second opinion.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56...target 65/35/0 AA TBD
pb4uski is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2019, 07:51 PM   #264
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 7,979
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
While I am in no way disparaging your daughter and she may well be the exception, in my experience most FAs are empty suits at best and pushy salespeople at worst.

Also, we have had members here who have tried to get a second opinion on their plan and were willing to pay for it but unless they were interested in a AUM relationship there was no interest by FAs in spending time for a second opinion.
+1
An added note is that the FA's if they were truly out for the best interest of their client's, then they would also recommend other products that their firm does not sell.
I asked Fidelity would you invest in your broker CD's right now over a one off CD at X Credit Union? The answer was no and further added that they have no idea of the current Credit Union deals.
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2019, 07:53 PM   #265
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 2,891
Not all FAs are treated equal but if you start out the conversation by stating you have no intentions of moving assets from one firm to the firm the FA is...you will quickly and easily discern which ones are advisors and which ones are salesman.
__________________
AA (Stock/Bond/Cash ): 97.5/0/2.5% MIX (Small/Mid/Large): 25/25/50% BLEND(US/Foreign): 100/0%, REIT (Real Estate Equity): ~50% of Assets

FIRE in 2031 @ 50yrs old (+/- 2yrs) w/ a hypothetical $2.5mil portfolio, 3 appreciated homes worth $1.0mil and rental income to fund my gap years until RMD. Assets will go to an inherited IRA where I plan on watching the investments grow until I die or the trust gets executed.
kgtest is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2019, 09:09 PM   #266
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
GTFan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Atlanta
Posts: 1,068
Quote:
Originally Posted by vchan2177 View Post
Here are the stock market trends for Japan, Emerging Market, Europe and USA.

USA is the exception. However, "what if" the USA market crashes and the USA market takes decades to recover because of the 22 trillion dollar debt?

How will your retirement turn out if the USA market follow the exact same trend as Japan, Emerging Markets and Europe? Can you take this risk?

IMO, this risk is unacceptable to me and therefore I am 100% treasury bonds to safeguard my retirement that I have already earned during the bull market. If this risk is acceptable to you and you have other resources, then leave your money in the stock market and assume that this possibility will NEVER happen.

+2% in treasury bonds is better than -40% in a stock market crash which may take decades to recover.
LOL, if I lost 50% in stocks today I'd still be better off than I was 5 years ago when I ER'd. And I had more than enough money to live on then.

I don't lose sleep over stuff like this, it's called black swans. I get the argument that you've already won the game so don't play but history is what it is until that swan event happens. And history says the US is the bell cow and I'll take the risk that it won't change in the years I have left. The upside is well worth that small risk and the downside is manageable short of a true economic collapse, in which case we're all screwed.

There's no guarantee the gov't is going to pay 2% forever either, and what are your bonds worth if nobody's buying them? Same swan.

(BTW the US market DID crash 10 years ago with massive debt. Hmmm.)
GTFan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2019, 09:15 PM   #267
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 29,180
Quote:
Originally Posted by GTFan View Post
LOL, if I lost 40% in stocks today I'd still be better off than I was 5 years ago when I ER'd. ...
+1 except make it 8 years and that is after 8 years of expenses and buying a winter condo for cash and replacing a 1-car garage with a 2-car garage with bonus room in the loft.

So if I could retire then I could certainly retire now... I have more even with a 40% dip in stock and less years to go.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56...target 65/35/0 AA TBD
pb4uski is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-04-2019, 07:48 AM   #268
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 5,890
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
+1 except make it 8 years and that is after 8 years of expenses and buying a winter condo for cash and replacing a 1-car garage with a 2-car garage with bonus room in the loft.

So if I could retire then I could certainly retire now... I have more even with a 40% dip in stock and less years to go.
+1 except make it 100% of my stock funds but exclude your large, one-time expenditures. And I had already been retired for 3 years, starting with a smaller balance.
__________________
Retired in late 2008 at age 45. Cashed in company stock, bought a lot of shares in a big bond fund and am living nicely off its dividends. IRA, SS, and a pension await me at age 60 and later. No kids, no debts.

"I want my money working for me instead of me working for my money!"
scrabbler1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-04-2019, 09:29 AM   #269
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
dtbach's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Madison
Posts: 1,297
I've managed my own accounts for at least 20 years now. The stock brokers and FA's I had prior probably cost me $500K in net worth with stupid advise. My broker had me double down on World Com and even convinced me to set up a margin account!! Costly lessons.

Both my brother and sister use FA's and have gone through at least 3 or 4 between them even though I've begged them to just buy some index funds. But hey, they got a nice box seat at the latest college game from their FA. You can bet they paid handsomely for that. . .
__________________
Wild Bill shoulda taken more out of his IRA when he could have. . . .
dtbach is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-04-2019, 09:59 PM   #270
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Posts: 20
Interesting thread.

I'm 52 and pretty new into this, at least new to paying attention to my IRA and 401(k), which grew throughout my 30s and 40s without me paying much attention to it, as I put in close to the max, thankfully.

Suddenly, I have about 1M in IRA, 403(b), and an already-taxed brokerage fund and I'm paying attention and thinking about options. I guess for me, I'd rather do it myself and use resources such as this website and a lot of other resources, and not pay an adviser. I've learned a lot the last two years and expect to keep learning more.
SAinMinn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-05-2019, 07:45 AM   #271
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 2,891
Quote:
Originally Posted by SAinMinn View Post
Interesting thread.

I'm 52 and pretty new into this, at least new to paying attention to my IRA and 401(k), which grew throughout my 30s and 40s without me paying much attention to it, as I put in close to the max, thankfully.

Suddenly, I have about 1M in IRA, 403(b), and an already-taxed brokerage fund and I'm paying attention and thinking about options. I guess for me, I'd rather do it myself and use resources such as this website and a lot of other resources, and not pay an adviser. I've learned a lot the last two years and expect to keep learning more.
A lot of what I learned was from folks on this awesome forum. Mainly gave me the confidence and eliminated any fear I had prior.

From a fellow Minnesota, welcome! You will learn a lot here.
__________________
AA (Stock/Bond/Cash ): 97.5/0/2.5% MIX (Small/Mid/Large): 25/25/50% BLEND(US/Foreign): 100/0%, REIT (Real Estate Equity): ~50% of Assets

FIRE in 2031 @ 50yrs old (+/- 2yrs) w/ a hypothetical $2.5mil portfolio, 3 appreciated homes worth $1.0mil and rental income to fund my gap years until RMD. Assets will go to an inherited IRA where I plan on watching the investments grow until I die or the trust gets executed.
kgtest is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-07-2019, 06:40 AM   #272
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 115
Managed my own ever since buying my first mutual fund 20 years ago. I do a lot of reading, and follow people who have the same conservative ideas that I have....blue chip stocks that pay dividends. Fortunately because of that I was able to retire last year.

Possibly the best advise I was ever given, was a casual question by a bank teller about 20 years ago when I was making a deposit to my savings account; "have you ever considered a ROTH IRA?" Me: "Whats that?" I did some research, and it sure seemed like a good idea at the time. And it is still a good idea.
carnivalday is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 10:15 PM   #273
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 14
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirtbiker View Post
You don't have enough of a difference? My clients are a bit more upstream? Is that your sales pitch to the elitists?
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
Thank you for that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecondCor521 View Post
I've heard enough. <plonk!>
So hows that rate of return working out for you forum professionals. In it for the long-term right. Hows the draw off?

Those of you that bought treasuries and didn't get too caught up in equities congrats - Smart move. When anyone and everyone is euphoric of their success in the stock market, that's a bell weather of things to come. They get caught up in the easy money. There's a saying in our industry that Bulls and Bears make money and pigs and sheep get slaughtered.

Get ready for a ride, the SPX looks like it wants to go to 2600 then 24

My heart is with the retirees that are humble and respect the markets with impunity.
allstock is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 11:27 PM   #274
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
OldShooter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 6,535
Quote:
Originally Posted by allstock View Post
So hows that rate of return working out for you forum professionals. In it for the long-term right ...
Well, I don't remember what that post was about, but my long term rate of return will almost certainly be unchanged after the current excitement settles out. Right now our equities are probably down and our TIPS are probably up. I don't know because I haven't checked.

For those who are up or down lately it isn't at all about being smart or dumb; it's simply about being lucky or unlucky.
OldShooter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2020, 08:00 AM   #275
Administrator
Gumby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 16,574
Quote:
Originally Posted by allstock View Post
There's a saying in our industry that Bulls and Bears make money and pigs and sheep get slaughtered.
Never heard that one before.
__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
Gumby is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2020, 08:18 AM   #276
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
euro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 1,581
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwraigty View Post
I agree that a poll would be more helpful. Otherwise, yes, I manage our finances and investments without any outside assistance.
Same here - have done it starting with my first dollar earned
euro is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2020, 08:45 AM   #277
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: claremont
Posts: 280
I've been managing my own money since the first dollar. Dad gave zero advice, very close to the vest. Very first brokerage account with Raymond James (er... thieves) got me into cruelly priced closed end funds during rollover and reemployment. By the time I got some breathing room I had lost most of the 90's boom. Migrated to Schwab and never looked back. I am shifting toward their Robo account as my preferred account anchor.
indiajust is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2020, 08:50 AM   #278
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
RonBoyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 6,075
Quote:
Originally Posted by allstock View Post
There's a saying in our industry that Bulls and Bears make money and pigs and sheep get slaughtered.
And further:

Sheep get sheered;
Pigs get fat;
Hogs get slaughtered.
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
RonBoyd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2020, 08:02 PM   #279
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Finance Dave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,583
I manage our accounts and always have. Just last year we moved to FIDO and got a CFP assigned to us...but he's just there to ask detailed questions to and I like to "run things by" him if I'm doing something major. We meet with him once a year and a few topics we've discussed the past two years are:

1) How do TIPS work?
2) Do you offer a deferred shared life annuity? Can you give me a quote?
3) Does FIDO have a way to automatically "rebuild" my CD ladder that I've set up?
4) Here are the CD ladders I'm going to buy...do you see any issues with this as far as exceeding the FDIC insurance limits?

Those are the kinds of things we use him for.

In full disclosure, I have an MBA in Finance and worked in Corporate Finance for a Fortune500 company for 24 years.
__________________
"Live every day as if it were your last, and one day you'll be right" - unknown
Finance Dave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2020, 09:10 PM   #280
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Out-to-Lunch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Milwaukee
Posts: 1,160
Quote:
Originally Posted by allstock View Post
My heart is with the retirees that are humble and respect the markets with impunity.

I don't think that is the word you were looking for....
Out-to-Lunch is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Many retirees could outlive a million dollar nest egg omni550 FIRE and Money 97 06-13-2013 03:56 PM
From totally free checking to totally fleece checking easysurfer FIRE and Money 47 06-30-2012 01:23 AM
How To Tap Your Nest Egg & Not Go Broke REWahoo FIRE and Money 4 07-16-2005 08:51 AM
"The Debate Over Nest Egg Math" Nords FIRE and Money 23 04-25-2005 04:42 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:56 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.