How Much Is Enough for Game Over Won!!

[Car-Guy]

Thanks all for the input. I hope to be able to tell you some day we hit Game Over Status!! Defined here as enough cash to live the way we want the rest of our life without playing the market. Weather we choose to play or not we shall see.

Best of luck. By your definition/goal, just like your friend did as described in your OP, it can be done.

 

[youbet]

For me "game over won" would be either:

1) to have a lot more money than I already have (enough to get away with a TIPS ladder to cover my needs and wants for the next say 60 years).
or
2) to have a COLA'd pension backed by the federal government covering all my needs and wants
or
3) to have so few needs and wants that they are covered by SS

Yeah, then ya just have to take the leap of faith the the good ole USA continues to exist as we know it today. That's hardly assured in today's world, even in the short term.

So you line things up the best you can and you live your life unencumbered by the obsession to control what is out of your control.

 

[kcowan]

I think the key would be to be sure that your wants would never change. I don't think I could be sure of this at my age (65). Maybe 80.

Well I am half-way there and mine have not changed. If anything, the urgency of some of the Bucket List items is rising. In fact, the one thing I have observed is less reluctance to blow the wad on bucket list items.

 

[Danmar]

Well I am half-way there and mine have not changed. If anything, the urgency of some of the Bucket List items is rising. In fact, the one thing I have observed is less reluctance to blow the wad on bucket list items.

I guess if the urgency increases you could say your wants have changed or at least increased? I suspect when you get to say 80, you just don't care about material things as much. Tend to lose interest in many things, I think. I certainly haven't lost interest at this point.

 

[kcowan]

I certainly haven't lost interest at this point.

We have lost interest in luxury clothing and jewelry, but, when an essential appliance needs replacing, we get the best one for the money instead of just one that works. I have two watches that I maintain, one utility and one dressup. The others languish in a drawer. I guess we focus our money on where we encounter the utility of the purchase every day.

(We love art but are faced with buying a bigger place for the wall space needed!)

 

[Danmar]

We have lost interest in luxury clothing and jewelry, but, when an essential appliance needs replacing, we get the best one for the money instead of just one that works. I have two watches that I maintain, one utility and one dressup. The others languish in a drawer. I guess we focus our money on where we encounter the utility of the purchase every day.

(We love art but are faced with buying a bigger place for the wall space needed!)

It is interesting how interest in material things change with age. I am still fairly interested in cars, art, clothes. But travel is starting to wane a bit. Little interest in jewelry or watches. Have a bunch spread around our places.

I can see most material things fading in interest with age. The key is to find other non material things/experiences to replace the interest. Otherwise you might become just another old cranky guy who just doesn't care about anything but his grandkids.

 

[6miths]

Only caring about your grandkids would be so bad? This is why I will have a significant equity component until the end of time (ok, my time!).

 

[Danmar]

Only caring about your grandkids would be so bad? This is why I will have a significant equity component until the end of time (ok, my time!).

I think to care about nothing but your grandkids would be a little sad. Just sitting there waiting for a visit or phone call? My inlaws are like this. At some point, very close to the end perhaps?

 

[Sunset]

So many us are FIRED with our wealth tied to the markets which has risks. We have calculated those risks using all kinds of calculators etc.
My question has anyone here gotten to the point where they pulled out the markets because they calculate they do not need anymore portfolio growth or income from the portfolio to live the way they want for their balance of time on the planet and did not want to take anymore risk? Hence Game Over!....
It also started me thinking if DW and I reach game over status what would we do? Based on firecalc and if history repeats itself we have a high probability of reaching the Game Over point .....

There is always risk.
Stocks and Bonds can become worthless when the company is bankrupt.
Rental properties seem fine until suprise a superdump is declared next door, or your tenant slips and sues you for 8 million.
Even taking all your money as cash is a risk, you have no control over the gov't which could devalue the currency like many have.
FDIC insured deposits could find themselves not covered by a simple gov't decision as this system only works if relatively few accounts are "lost".

My thinking is you can only hope to manage the risk by diversifying but there are events that can/will destroy the value nearly all investments, so you hope they don't happen all at one time.

 

[Car-Guy]

It is interesting how interest in material things change with age. I am still fairly interested in cars, art, clothes. But travel is starting to wane a bit.

+ 1/2 (or .50)

I've always loved cars, anything high performance from the mid 60's to early 70's models, and then again starting in the mid 90's until now. If you are a car guy you'll understand those timeframes. However, I'm getting to where I don't care as much about rebuilding/restoring/repairing them... It's getting to be like work and it's either to hot, to cold and it's always dirty. Parts are getting to hard to find - those are my excuses anyway. It's been months since I done any serious work on my cars.

Like you travel is becoming less appealing to me too. Just drove a 4k mile round trip a few months ago and that wasn't as much fun or exciting as it was just a few years ago.

I find myself gravitating to some of my other hobbies that don't take as much time "or energy".

 

[nun]

There is always risk.
Stocks and Bonds can become worthless when the company is bankrupt.
Rental properties seem fine until suprise a superdump is declared next door, or your tenant slips and sues you for 8 million.
Even taking all your money as cash is a risk, you have no control over the gov't which could devalue the currency like many have.
FDIC insured deposits could find themselves not covered by a simple gov't decision as this system only works if relatively few accounts are "lost".

My thinking is you can only hope to manage the risk by diversifying but there are events that can/will destroy the value nearly all investments, so you hope they don't happen all at one time.

Diversity is the core to my approach too. I have that rental property you mentioned and there are risks in owning one, but they can be reduced by having a lease and an umbrella insurance policy. Also I only own one rental property so it's not overweighted in my net worth.

I get more than enough income from pension, rental, annuity and SS to live off, but the rest of my savings are still in the stock market because once you have your income needs covered from non-equity sources you can take a lot of risk with what's left.

 

[nun]

Like you travel is becoming less appealing to me too. Just drove a 4k mile round trip a few months ago and that wasn't as much fun or exciting as it was just a few years ago.

I find myself gravitating to some of my other hobbies that don't take as much time "or energy".

I'm in my mid 50s and I think I have about 10 years of really robust health left where I can ride my bike hard and not be too bothered by my joints. So this last summer I rode my bicycle 3800 miles across the USA. I'm going to do as much pedaling as possible in the next decade.

 

[Car-Guy]

I'm in my mid 50s and I think I have about 10 years of really robust health left where I can ride my bike hard and not be too bothered by my joints. So this last summer I rode my bicycle 3800 miles across the USA. I'm going to do as much pedaling as possible in the next decade.

That's impressive to me, at any age.... And you may be right on target. I'm in my mid 60's and it's getting rough on me now to drive a car that far.

 

[unclemick]

It's interesting though that when one compares pssst Wellesley with similar conservative allocation index funds such as Vanguard LifeStrategy Consrv Grwth which has a very similar split of stocks/bonds, Wellesley beats it soundly for 1,3,5 and 10 year periods, with a higher SEC yield to boot. The Welllesley conundrum.

Apparently the 'value premium' is still alive and well?

heh heh heh - so when is 'growth's turn?

 

[Danmar]

I'm in my mid 50s and I think I have about 10 years of really robust health left where I can ride my bike hard and not be too bothered by my joints. So this last summer I rode my bicycle 3800 miles across the USA. I'm going to do as much pedaling as possible in the next decade.

Good for you. I am 65 and can still ride pretty hard. However, the same ride seems a little less fun today than if was a couple of years ago. Burn baby burn (calories that is).

 

[FIREd]

Another article hinting at the fact that "enough for game over" is as hard to reach as ever:

Swedroe: A Perfect Storm For Low Returns | ETF.com

I thought that my 2.8% WR was low enough to avoid decumulation. But it may still be too high.

 

[W2R]

Another article hinting at the fact that "enough for game over" is as hard to reach as ever:

Swedroe: A Perfect Storm For Low Returns | ETF.com

I thought that my 2.8% WR was low enough to avoid decumulation. But it may still be too high.

I would have thought that 2.8% was low enough to avoid decumulation too. It's amazing that it might not be.

A lot of us will have to tighten our belts if we are to get close to a 2% WR. Now that I have bought my dream house, my portfolio is smaller meaning that my WR this time is likely to be higher than in the past.

Oh well, that was the objective in my case, since I might as well enjoy what I have.

 

[FIREd]

A lot of us will have to tighten our belts if we are to get close to a 2% WR.

Indeed. It will be easier for us to do once we move back to a lower cost of living area, but it is still a bit disheartening.

 

[W2R]

Indeed. It will be easier for us to do once we move back to a lower cost of living area, but it is still a bit disheartening.

I think you are right that it is a lot easier to handle in a lower cost of living area.

Not only do things cost less, but sometimes there is less social pressure to spend than one might encounter elsewhere. At least, that has been my experience here, with tastefully understated wealth often (but not always) seeming more common here than splashy consumerism. For example, some of the wealthiest here tend to drive 15-year-old cars worth less than $10K instead of driving new Mercedes and Jaguars.

I like the idea of spending less than my dividends. With a portfolio that is basically index funds plus 30% Wellesley, I think that this strategy will allow me a little more than 2% without getting into my principal. At least, it will for now.

 

[FIREd]

Not only do things cost less, but sometimes there is less social pressure to spend than one might encounter elsewhere. At least, that has been my experience here, with tastefully understated wealth often (but not always) seeming more common here than splashy consumerism. For example, some of the wealthiest here tend to drive 15-year-old cars worth less than $10K instead of driving new Mercedes and Jaguars.

I definitely feel the same way. It is easier to be happy with less in low cost of living areas.

I like the idea of spending less than my dividends. With a portfolio that is basically index funds plus 30% Wellesley, I think that this strategy will allow me a little more than 2% without getting into my principal. At least, it will for now.

Over the past year, I have largely gone back to a portfolio of broadly diversified index funds. And, like you, my plan is to spend the dividends only, which right now would give me a WR around 2.3%.

 

[CaliforniaMan]

Jan 1993. 60/40. Katrina, lost of house. Lost of spouse. 1000 miles inland. New house. New spouse. Mr Market has a few ups and downs.

Change is certain. Nowadays 50/50 lifecycle fund ala Vanguard for real retirement plus a few good stocks for the male hormones while in season.

Life's really big question - should I stick with the Saint's after 2010 FINALLY! or go with the Chiefs here in KC?

heh heh heh - stay agile mobile and hostile and adjust to life as reguired. And yes I did vary withdrawal rate and expenses over the years.

Just 20 months retired myself, curious about how you chose to vary your withdrawal rate over time, if you don't mind sharing.

 

[unclemick]

My tongue in cheek unified theory of chickenheartness. With hindsight fairly on the mark though not precisely.

Ballpark 2-6%.

Placing a moistened finger on the belly button I thought how the past year went as to expenses both planned and unexpected, how Mr Market was doing and how I felt about it. A bad year had me pick a number below 4% and a good year ie low unexpected expenses and a performing stock market had me pick a higher number above 4% usually remodeling, a upgraded pickup truck and added travel. Note the emotion and after the fact re -planning.

Tried always to raise or lower budget expenses NOT asset allocation. Hand grenade wise pretty much stayed close to 60/40.

1993 - 2006 Would not look pretty spreadsheet wise because of a mish mash of severance pay cash, some temp work, sold a rental duplex, DRIP dividend stocks and things like Wellesley, REIT index, corporate high yield, etc letting the index funds compound in my 401k rollover from ER start age 49 1/2 to 62. Also took early small pension at 55 and SS at 62.

Messy but it worked. As forum members will attest there are many ways to skin a cat.

heh heh heh - now past 70 1/2 my Pals at the IRS help me with my withdrawal rate. Given the historical period 1993 -2015 and hindsight I was overly frugal in the early years of ER but I don't feel deprived or think I should have spent more when I was younger and more 'spry'.

 

[CaliforniaMan]

Thanks for sharing unclemick. Always nice to hear the real life success stories.