How to Position Investments for the Coming Depression?

[packrat44]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Khan Tin foil hat From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (Redirected from Tin-foil hat) Jump to: navigation, search A tin foil hat in profile. A tin foil hat is a piece of headgear made from one or more sheets of tin foil, aluminium foil or similar material. In theory, people wear the hats in the belief that they act to shield the brain from such influences as electromagnetic fields, or against alien interference, mind control and mind reading. The idea of wearing a tin foil hat for protection from such threats has become a popular stereotype and term of derision. The phrase serves as a byword for paranoia and is often used to characterize conspiracy theorists. Aluminum Foil Deflector Beanie

Thanks! I also did not know where the 'tin foil hats' originated.

DW and I finished off the brownies she made several days ago. Being a LBYM type person, I now know what to do with the tin foil that was covering the brownies. Oops! Will aluminum foil work as well as tin foil?

[Notmuchlonger]

Quote:

Originally Posted by packrat44 Thanks! I also did not know where the 'tin foil hats' originated. DW and I finished off the brownies she made several days ago. Being a LBYM type person, I now know what to do with the tin foil that was covering the brownies. Oops! Will aluminum foil work as well as tin foil?

Yes to keep the bad goviments rays from manipulating you is good thinkens..

[tightasadrum]

Dad lived through it and was very conservative with any investing moves. Of course, experiences during any economic period should be balanced against the context that the person lived in. In my dad's case, he was the son of a lifelong southern sharecropper. My mom was the child of a landowning mid-westerner. This is what I took from their experiences.

No one had cash to spend. So you produced "stuff" to trade for other stuff and services, or provided services for the same.

Since no one had anything, "keeping up with the Jones" competition didn't exist. Everyone helped each other. This probably was not pure altruism, but knowing that tomorrow YOU could be the one that needed the help. Don't burn any bridges.

Having a chip on your shoulder could be fatal. Frankly, you did anything you could for as long as it took to get by.

Owning real estate, if you owned it free and clear and could manage to pay the taxes, was a good thing. To wit, own land, grow food to eat and sell. Own rental property, but have it paid for; lowering the rent to keep it occupied as the market dictates. Labor will be available and cheap; use that as leverage to improve your position. Investments in equities would only be useful to someone middle-aged or younger, or someone wanting to transfer excess assets to heirs or others. You probably wouldn't want to live in the city or attractive suburbs near the city. Crime will always be a problem when people think you have something when they have nothing.

[shoe]

Khan thanks for bringing me up to speed on tin foil hats! Now please tell me where to find a matching purse!

[flatrock]

My grandparents oftern talked about the depression. It made quite an impact on them. The remainder of their lives they never owned stock, never went into debt, & paid cash for everything. They had a small cattle ranch and both worked off the farm. My grandmother was a teacher & my grandfather was a CCC camp superintendant. Other than their farm they only invested in CDs & US Savings Bonds until the day they died. I remember them saying during the depression no one had any money--- it was virtually a cashless society. They also talked about rampant livestock & chicken theft by people who were trying to feed their families. My grandmother told me a specific story about a man who stole a hog to feed his family who was caught and sentenced to 5 years in prison. I certainly hope nothing like the 30 era depression is heading our way now.

[Brat]

My grandparents did not suffer during the depression, but it made an indelible mark. My father, and his parents, had a practice of providing a meal to anyone who came to the door and asked as a result. Some got a meal on the picnic table in the back yard, others got a meal in a sack.

Notice that several nations are trying to cope with food prices. Rice in the Philippines, beef in Argentina. World wide, as a result of the increasing price of energy, food costs are putting pressure on governments.

[papadad111]

Interesting old thread. Pretty insightful for March and April 2008. Funny to read who posted what at the time and now revisit ....

Lest we forget. !!!

[ziggy29]

[papadad111]

Good insight

[clifp]

My (mostly tongue in cheek) advice in 2008 was to buy a gun store. I know that gun prices have increased in the US recently, but anybody have feeling for how gun stores have done since 2008?. I haven't owned a gun since moving to Hawaii.

[REWahoo]

I'm relieved to see I didn't embarrass myself too badly...

Quote:

Quote: Originally Posted by danm I guess so. The bear baiting always surprises me though, especially the total unwillingness to even listen to contrary ideas. Maybe because folks are frightened of anything that threatens their early retiree livelihood (investment income). Quote: Originally Posted by REWahoo Seems to me that fearing anything that threatens your livelihood is a perfectly normal and healthy reaction. Perhaps folks react the way they do because they have seen and/or experienced the highly unsatisfactory results of listening to those who believe in their ability to successfully and consistently time the market. Call it "the total unwillingness to even listen to contrary ideas" if you like. I prefer to think of it more along the lines of sound judgment based on 60+ years of personal experience. The bottom line is whatever investment strategy works for you is the best way to go. Just don't be surprised if everyone doesn't buy into your investment methodology - just as you don't buy into theirs.

[MRG]

Quote:

Originally Posted by clifp My (mostly tongue in cheek) advice in 2008 was to buy a gun store. I know that gun prices have increased in the US recently, but anybody have feeling for how gun stores have done since 2008?. I haven't owned a gun since moving to Hawaii.

While the industry has slowed down recently, retail store owners have done very well. You also had the 100th anniversary of the 1911 in there. The guys that were able to get supplies of 1911s with a manufacture date of 2011 did well. The semi and full custom 1911 manufacturers were booked solid for 18 months or more.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

[FIREd]

I should have followed my own advice and invested in long term treasuries.

[Slarty]

I forgot about starting this old thread. I did make big changes in my stock and bond investments, and I also made some real estate adjustments and changed jobs, which allowed me to use a relocation benefit to re-position my home real estate at no cost. I refinanced rental property as well as my house at crazy low interest rates instead of buying them cash so I can use that cash to invest in this next big down-turn. We are still in the depths of an economic ice age and it feels like a bit of a warming period but it's a false dawn. Stocks are WAY over valued. Real Estate is frothy again in some key markets. China is starting to crack and it's holding up Germany and Germany is holding up Europe. I expect that this next leg down will be harder on us than the first wave was because people have used up their reserves and stimulus is making things seem better than they are. The Fed created zero interest rates and printed money, which means our currency has no sense of a basis at all. Sell stocks and sell or re-position rental properties. Be ready to buy rental properties and stocks when they crash big time over the next 3 years, and then you will be set for the upswing that could start as early as 2020 and will be humming by 2023. If you work, then be sure you are seen as a great performer and work for a solid company that makes good cash flow now. If you own your home and have enough extra cash to pay a loan then get a loan on your house at 15 (or maybe 30 years) years at low interest rates, and keep all that extra cash in reserve to invest in the depths of this next wave down. It will most likely happen from now until 36 months from now. Be sure to profit from it and set yourself up for the next big long growth wave starting in 2020 when the echo baby boomers start spending a lot of money.

[ProspectiveBum]

So, given your fairly accurate crystal ball back in '08: did you manage to retire in 2010 despite the upheaval in the economy?

[Slarty]

Good question ProspectiveBum. I had the option to retire, but I have to admit that I don't fit the definition of retirement. I'm still doing work but it's with start-up companies or other companies that I think have interesting technology to work with. If I don't like the people then I won't join. It's a totally different perspective when I'm not stressed about having to work, but it would be too expensive for me to come up with this cool technology on my own. If / when I get bored of this, I will move onto doing something else. Enjoying the adventure.

[MichaelB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slarty Be ready to buy rental properties and stocks when they crash big time over the next 3 years, and then you will be set for the upswing that could start as early as 2020 and will be humming by 2023. ./. If you work, then be sure you are seen as a great performer and work for a solid company that makes good cash flow now. If you own your home and have enough extra cash to pay a loan then get a loan on your house at 15 (or maybe 30 years) years at low interest rates, and keep all that extra cash in reserve to invest in the depths of this next wave down. It will most likely happen from now until 36 months from now.

This could be the Poor Richard's Almanac of ER. Predicting a market crash within three years is like forecasting the weather over the next year. On average, the US has had a recession every 6 years or so since 1850, it's been 4 years since the last recession, so the odds one will happen are statistically high. Equity markets decline during recessions. This is like predicting hurricanes. We know they will happen because they have in the past. We have no way of knowing when or how severe, so we should take normal precautions and get on with life.

Borrow money against your home right before a recession. Now how might that end?

[Senator]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slarty Be ready to buy rental properties and stocks when they crash big time over the next 3 years, and then you will be set for the upswing...

This was great advice, although I did not get it from here. I purchased a 4-plex in each year, to be used as rental property, on in each 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 for a total of five.

That has rocket propelled my NW, income, and FIRE strategy. Of course, it was still a lot of work, but easy to get into a property at a decent price.

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Senator This was great advice, although I did not get it from here. I purchased a 4-plex in each year, to be used as rental property, on in each 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 for a total of five. That has rocket propelled my NW, income, and FIRE strategy. Of course, it was still a lot of work, but easy to get into a property at a decent price.

I assume to buy that many properties you went into pretty heavy debt/leverage?

You could have gone margin in the stock market in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and quintupled your money.

[ggbutcher]

One take on it:

Stock Market Crash - Business Insider

Ah, that's better (originally posted in wrong thread)