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Old 05-16-2021, 04:57 PM   #221
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Getting more worried, as are others: https://www.barrons.com/articles/inf...of2&yptr=yahoo
Barrons is behind a paywall, so why not give us a summary of the article?
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Old 05-16-2021, 08:49 PM   #222
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Barrons is behind a paywall, so why not give us a summary of the article?
Author is worried about inflation, cites a lot of recent real world examples, thinks it is going to heat up further. One reason to worry is government/Fed actions that will warp normal economic forces.
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Old 05-17-2021, 11:30 AM   #223
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It's far from final, but encouraging to see lumber Jul 2021 future contracts down for 6 consecutive days straight. Hopefully it signifies producers ramping up production to meet rising prices/demand.
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Old 05-17-2021, 11:36 AM   #224
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The Fed may not have many good tools to battle deflation, but it is a proven inflation killer. Just remember back to Paul Volker in Ď79. Itís painful but effective.
I know this time around, I'm locking in 18% CD's for long term
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Old 05-17-2021, 11:38 AM   #225
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It's far from final, but encouraging to see lumber Jul 2021 future contracts down for 6 consecutive days straight. Hopefully it signifies producers ramping up production to meet rising prices/demand.
Or Fermion has bought all the lumber needed for his house
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Old 05-17-2021, 11:43 AM   #226
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Yeah, unfortunately we had to bite the bullet and buy 11 sheets a few days ago at $66 (for low grade CDX sheathing!). On the plus side, it is something like $70 a sheet now.

New way to make money....long plywood!
Wait till plywood prices rise up right before a hurricane striking.
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Old 05-17-2021, 11:46 AM   #227
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Plan and save and invest for retirement should start when the young ones start working. Easier said than done. It allowed me to FIRE when I wanted to.
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Old 05-17-2021, 02:33 PM   #228
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I know this time around, I'm locking in 18% CD's for long term
Damn straight.
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Old 05-18-2021, 06:53 AM   #229
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Not going to make any adjustments for the time being. I'll monitor what Bill McBride and Policy Tensor are seeing.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com
https://policytensor.substack.com/p/...ying-inflation
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Old 05-18-2021, 07:57 AM   #230
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I know this time around, I'm locking in 18% CD's for long term
And some I-Bonds
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Old 05-18-2021, 08:41 AM   #231
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Bought the annual half beef last week, 327# hanging, $4.47/#, netted about 170+#. Overpaid for hamburger, average for roasts, underpaid for steak and premium cuts.

Still have the stash of seafood bought on sale from end of Lent, garden gets tilled tomorrow. 85 gallons Chilean and South African white grape juice cold fermenting in wine cooler closet, will run $2.50/bottle. The barrel of Semillion is a 2 year project, and something different for a change.

The six apartments are full, rented at market value, and could be bumped up if needed in the future. The SFH was sold earlier.

I'm not worried about inflation; with TIPS fund about !5% of portfolio.
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Old 05-18-2021, 09:23 AM   #232
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Not at all. But the recent barrage of printing money to hand out is most annoying.
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Old 05-18-2021, 09:29 AM   #233
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Not at all. But the recent barrage of printing money to hand out is most annoying.
+1 (at least) Certainly will be a major inflationary driver... IMO
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Old 05-18-2021, 09:37 AM   #234
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OK, anecdata, and imprecise at that, but...

We did a big shop ($454 after coupons) at BJs yesterday. Hadn't been there in a couple of months. I kept thinking, "That item used to cost $....." so I dug out a receipt from the last time. Sure enough, many items were up at least a dollar, sometimes more.
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Old 05-18-2021, 11:50 AM   #235
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https://seekingalpha.com/news/369783...-to-25-by-2025

Don't expect your plumber to fix your leaky toilet for $79 for much longer. Good for working age folks (although long term they get hurt even more), but bad for people living on Fixed income
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Old 05-18-2021, 12:21 PM   #236
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https://seekingalpha.com/news/369783...-to-25-by-2025

Don't expect your plumber to fix your leaky toilet for $79 for much longer. Good for working age folks (although long term they get hurt even more), but bad for people living on Fixed income
From the link, for those amongst us that donít open blind links
Quote:
While there are efforts to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour, Bank of America (BAC +0.0%) will boost its U.S. minimum hourly wage to $25 by 2025, it said in a statement.

That follows the company's move to raise its minimum hourly wage to $20 per hour in March of last year.
./.
The bank is also requiring its U.S. vendors to pay their employees who work with the bank at or above $15 per hour. Already, more than 990% of the company's more than 2,000 U.S. vendor firms and 43K vendor employees are at or above the $15 per hour rate.
Not sure what that has to do with fixing leaky toilets, but plumbers in my area have been charging far more than $79 for quite some time.
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Old 05-18-2021, 12:30 PM   #237
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Regarding plywood prices, a friend said they were able to buy sheets of 19/32 cheaper than 7/16, about $20 less per sheet. He was guessing thatís because the latter is more common for construction and therefore in more demand. He also noticed that the local Home Depot has a lot more 7/16 recently, which he thinks means people arenít buying. If true, that should result in prices decreasing.

Heís in the middle of a construction project and has been going to all the lumber stores looking for deals. Heís pretty good at finding materials cheap. For example, he bought pressure treated lumber for the joists for his deck at a 70% discount at Home Depot. The boards werenít perfect, but heís ok with that since theyíll be under the deck.
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Old 05-18-2021, 12:32 PM   #238
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From the link, for those amongst us that donít open blind links

Not sure what that has to do with fixing leaky toilets, but plumbers in my area have been charging far more than $79 for quite some time.
Yes, plumbers make damn fine money these days as do most other "trades" such as electricians, carpenters, etc.
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Old 05-18-2021, 12:56 PM   #239
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From the link, for those amongst us that don’t open blind links

Not sure what that has to do with fixing leaky toilets, but plumbers in my area have been charging far more than $79 for quite some time.
In VLCOL one could still hire handy-man to do odd jobs for $70-$100 rate.

I still remember, few years back.. there was movement to increase the per hour rate to $10/hr at major corporations. Then the push was for it to be increased to $15. And you are already seeing the wage inflation, with BAC planning for $25/hr in coming years. Other companies are on this path as all.

As the wage inflation spreads in all aspect of life (its happening right now, only denied by folks who look at CPI number and say that everything else is anecdotal). "Oh look now the 100" TV is cheaper than last year" is the argument repeated year after year.. But people can't eat TV. People need to live in a house, eat anecdotal priced food and all services are increasing in costs faster than rate implied by CPI.
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