How's your YTD

[Dude]

Personal Rates of Return:

Roth IRA 1 --> 7.7%     (8% of assets)
Roth IRA 2 --> 8.1%     (8% of assets)
Roth IRA 3 --> 8.8%     (33% of assets)
401k          --> 10.1%   (51% of assets)

Hoping for a little more in 2006!

 

[Toejam]

What a difference a day makes!

Portfolio balance as of 12/30/05 (last trading day of 2005): $2,335, 954
YTD return 1/1/05 to 12/30/05: 3.9%

Portfolio balance as of today, 1/3/06 (first trading day of 2006): $2,379,856
YTD return 1/1/05 to 1/3/06: 5.8%

Which goes to show, the returns calculated on any one day don't have a whole lot of meaning. Especially when over 90% of your portfolio is in equities like individual stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and REITS, which swing up and down like crazy.

As long as I don't keep going in the hole year after year, I'll be happy. But it was kind of a disappointment to go from an 8% return last year to this year's lesser return. If I hadn't rebalanced the portfolio to include more International equities over the last half year, I probably would've just broken even or maybe even had a negative return.

I hope this year will be better for me.

Gosh, I see most everyone else has had some pretty good returns in the double digits! My hat's off to you savvy investors out there.

Toejam

 

[haha]

What a difference a day makes!   

Portfolio balance as of 12/30/05 (last trading day of 2005):  $2,335, 954
YTD return 1/1/05 to 12/30/05:  3.9%

Portfolio balance as of today, 1/3/06 (first trading day of 2006):  $2,379,856
YTD return 1/1/05 to 1/3/06:  5.8%

Which goes to show, the returns calculated on any one day don't have a whole lot of meaning.  Especially when over 90% of your portfolio is in equities like individual stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and REITS, which swing up and down like crazy. 

As long as I don't keep going in the hole year after year, I'll be happy.  But it was kind of a disappointment to go from an 8% return last year to this year's lesser return.  If I hadn't rebalanced the portfolio to include more International equities over the last half year, I probably would've just broken even or maybe even had a negative return.   

I hope this year will be better for me. 

Gosh, I see most everyone else has had some pretty good returns in the double digits!  My hat's off to you savvy investors out there.

Toejam

Toejam, my hat is off to you for your balance. Balance dominates return, IMO.

Ha

 

 

[Spanky]

[quoue]
YTD return 1/1/05 to 12/30/05: 3.9%
YTD return 1/1/05 to 1/3/06: 5.8%The first trading day of 06 was off to a good start esp for the Energy sector and international equities.

 

[retire@40]

Portfolio balance as of today, 1/3/06 (first trading day of 2006):  $2,379,856

With a balance like that you must have average daily +/- net worth fluctuations in the $15K to $25K range.

 

[justin]

I think the good returns we are seeing are a result of balanced, low fee portfolios in general. Most investors here it seems have a good portion allocated to international, which did better than the market (Dow Jones or SP500). All of the "end of year" news reports I saw (financial porn) reported how it was a lackluster year in the markets. They were referring to US markets only. I know the international funds I'm in were up over 20%+ during 2005. That helps a lot when 20-50% of your portfolio is in international, in spite of almost zero returns domestically.

Also, I'd like to add that yesterday I had my largest one day gain ever - $2600. Scary to think that an equivalent down day will have a $2600 drop in one day.

 

[Dawg52]

Portfolio balance as of today, 1/3/06 (first trading day of 2006):  $2,379,856

Don't suppose I could talk you into including me in your will?

 

[LOL!]

Yesterday was the opposite of the first 2 trading days of 2005.
Yesterday up 1.8%
Jan 2005 down 1.8%

This is why you have have to figure YTD from the value of your investments on the evening of 12/31 or before the market opens on the first trading day.

When we have this discussion next year, everyone who uses Jan 3rd as the starting point will be 1.8% behind the rest of us.

Similarly those folks who used a January date in this thread will be a percent or so ahead of us.

I guess using 1/1 is OK since the market is always closed that day.

 

[unclemick]

Hmmm

A few random comments:

ala Bill Fleckenstein - lead sled dog VG Lifestrategy 5.69% YTD at 75% of port. and VG REIT Index about 11 something percent at about 10% of port.

Don't count the 15% in individual stocks - they will produce their required 5 or 6k of div's.

At 12 years into ER - more concerned with asset allocation to get my Norwegian widow cut along with proper asset balance to run the slot between reasonible inflation effects and damping SD enough so I don't scare myself enough to pee my pants - 2002 dip was thus normal market fluctuation.

Way back in my accumulation days before ER - of course I tracked YTD much more closely.

BTY - the IRS now lets me live till 84.6 vs 84.3 back in 1993. I say this because at some point my er ah SWR will have some external influence - RMD being an offer I can't refuse.

 

[Jay_Gatsby]

Looks like the YTD on my 401(k) was somewhere in the 13%-14% range, which is pretty decent all in all. Taxable accounts are pretty cash-heavy, as I've sat on the sidelines for a while to see if the economy stabilizes, but they yielded roughly 8%. Now that such stablization appears to have occurred, it's probably time to tip a few more toes in the water and pick up some solid actively-managed mutual funds. I'm pretty much done with individual stocks except for my employer's stock (I seem to recall Buffett stating that one shouldn't invest in anything one doesn't understand).

 

[Spanky]

I'm pretty much done with individual stocks except for my employer's stock (I seem to recall Buffett stating that one shouldn't invest in anything one doesn't understand).

I think Peter Lynch said that.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

They both sort of did.

Buffett said he doesnt invest in technology because he doesnt understand it.

Lynch said not to invest in anything you cant illustrate with a crayon.

Although i'm quite sure both, and most other investment experts, said not to buy anything you dont understand.

All THAT having been said, I completely understood my last company, its business, its competition and had access to pretty much every piece of inside information available. I doubt that the chairman and CEO sitting next to each other could pose me a question about the business or its environment I couldnt answer. To boot, I probably had more timely and immediate product and program information than they did.

Didnt help a whit when it came to investing in the companies stock. We announced cool new strategies, products and great quarter/year end results, and the stock went up, down and nowhere. We announced bad news, product cancellations, and major failures and the stock went up, down and nowhere. Nothing I saw or experienced would have led me to believe the stock would go up almost 1000% in a few years, or lose almost 90% of its value in less than one.

So maybe the "understanding" thing helps you avoid complete losers, but its not a key to successful investing IMO. In fact, i've often found that people who dig in and analyze a business to death often find things that make buying shares more attractive...

 

[Nords]

Also, I'd like to add that yesterday I had my largest one day gain ever - $2600.  Scary to think that an equivalent down day will have a $2600 drop in one day. 

The last guy to comment on seeing his portfolio drop $3000 in one day ended up going back to work...

It's not uncommon for a high-equity portfolio to have daily swings in the five-figure range, especially when the DOW moves triple digits.

 

[thefed]

My YTD is 21.3%

NAtural Resources
Utilities
Real Estate
5% in bonds

 

[free4now]

I'd like to encourage those who didn't beat the indexes to post here as well. We all know that most pros who beat the indexes in the short term trail the indexes over the long term, so it's just impossible that the readers of this board are somehow collectively that much better than all other professionals who invest for a living. So one of two things explain the results being reported here:

1. The people who report results here are taking significantly more risks and are likely to trail the indexes in the long term due to eventual downturns.

or

2. There is self selection going on where those who didn't beat the indexes aren't reporting their results.

I suspect it's mostly the latter, so lets hear your results. Reporting that you trailed the indexes can be a sign of maturity and good judgement.

 

[Nords]

1. The people who report results here are taking significantly more risks and are likely to trail the indexes in the long term due to eventual downturns.

If by "risk" you mean "volatility", then I agree. Small-cap value had a great year as did Tweedy, Browne.  Berkshire Hathaway was a good buy on its Sep dip, too.

Which index are you predicting they'll underperform?  If you're comparing their performance to the S&P500, of which our retirement portfolio holds almost zilch, then I suspect they'll continue to outperform (although at a much higher volatility).

 

[lazyday]

1. The people who report results here are taking significantly more risks and are likely to trail the indexes in the long term due to eventual downturns.

But by taking more risk in an intelligent way, generally one should expect to outperform in the very long term.
On the other hand, I suppose if people are being reckless and making big performance-chasing bets, then I'd agree.

2. There is self selection going on

Maybe. I've said before, I plan to post someday when I've underperformed. I wasn't on these boards in the late 90's, so didn't post then.

I think a big reason for outperformance by so many people could be diversification. The major US indexes were beat by several other asset classes that are popular on this board.

If you're comparing their performance to the S&P500, of which our retirement portfolio holds almost zilch, then I suspect they'll continue to outperform (although at a much higher volatility).

It wouldn't surprise me at all, if in 2006, S&P500 outperforms all of the following: value, small, international, commodities, energy, gold.
That said, I think that diversification is the best bet. And I'm overweight international, but not by as much as I was a month ago. (Have sold some.) Nor am I a huge S&P500 fan--if I were to pick one US fund today, it would be VTI, total market.

 

[lazyday]

oh, in case Petey's here:

by "value" above, I mean "value indexes," not "intrinsic value."

 

[laurence]

Whoa, this number is a little out of date, but I'm too lazy to do the work myself - I had a YTD return of 9.7%! I was not expecting it to be that good! My international and small cap holdings are 40% of my portfolio, they put it on their back and carried it...my Wellington just kept chugging along.

 

[unclemick]

HEH HEH HEH - Being left handed and all that:

The corollary question is: what was your 'worst YTD' in your experience and what did YOU do - when the you know what hit the fan.

I.E. ?Valuable experience? Lessons learned??

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

The last guy to comment on seeing his portfolio drop $3000 in one day ended up going back to work...

It's not uncommon for a high-equity portfolio to have daily swings in the five-figure range, especially when the DOW moves triple digits.

Heck, i've picked up and lost 20-something thousand in a day. Doesnt even faze me anymore.

 

[retire@40]

Heck, i've picked up and lost 20-something thousand in a day.  Doesnt even faze me anymore.

It's all relative. I remember when I first started moving up or down $1K a day and thought that it was amazing, considering I remember it took me a whole summer at my first job as a teenager to make $1K.

The other day I was up about $8K for the day and I didn't even mention it to my wife.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Mine only wants to hear about up days. Works for her. Works for me too. As far as she knows i'm such a good investor our portfolio only goes up.

 

[lazyday]

The corollary question is: what was your 'worst YTD' in your experience and what did YOU do - when the you know what hit the fan.

Skip me if you've heard this one:

1998 was probably the worst calendar year for my portfolio. I think that was when I sold Europe (at a small loss) and to the extent I could without paying premium or high ER, bought EM (where I had lost tons).
I had taken a temporary margin loan to buy an EM CEF that was trading at a discount, but open ending. I got to collect the discount, plus or minus EM market performance. Well, it was very much minus!
Lesson - even a "reasonable" amount of margin, only intended to be held a short time, can get ugly.
Other lesson - selling what dropped a little to buy what dropped a lot might work in your favor, maybe even sooner than you expect it to.

 

[Sheryl]

Mine only wants to hear about up days.  Works for her.  Works for me too.  As far as she knows i'm such a good investor our portfolio only goes up.

Yeah,  I'm always crowing about the up days... but the down days are "don't ask, don't tell." I just wait until the next up day. 

BTW,  I've been thinking I need to apologize to the poster (I've forgotten who it was, Justin, maybe?) who several months ago talked about how they updated their spreadsheet every day at the close of trading.

My reply was, "That sounds like way too much work."

Well, now I'M doing it.   

I have the asset sheet linked to a "countdown" page with a big red entry saying DOLLARS TO GO UNTIL FIRE: $________.

As of Monday that number is below $150,000.  And there are some adjustments yet to be made when my mom's estate is finally closed...  The excitement of being so close is scary. 

Good Scary.