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Old 10-20-2021, 05:00 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by RunningBum View Post
... It seemed to me to be beating the S&P 500 all the time, but the reality is it only did 9 out of 15. ...
I have read, but not seen numbers, that funds that do outperform their benchmarks in a given period usually do so by small amount, but the ones that miss often miss big time. So just counting "beats" may not tell the total return story.

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... Of course a fund could outperform the index every year. Like I could correctly call "tails" in 20 straight coin flips. But I can almost guarantee I won't.
I actually played with some numbers a while back. Roughly 10,000 mutual funds in the US, so hypothesize 10,000 monkeys each flipping 8 times. About 40 would have perfect 8-heads scores. And about half of them would be able to claim that they beat the average of their peers.
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Old 10-20-2021, 05:28 PM   #22
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Is this outperformance inclusive of fees?
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Old 10-20-2021, 05:37 PM   #23
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Is this outperformance inclusive of fees?
And after taxes? And on a risk-adjusted basis?

(Almost certainly not.)

@pb4uski, I believe you misspelled "<plonk!>"
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Old 10-20-2021, 06:21 PM   #24
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It would appear after two pages of postings that this mythical miracle fund is a pigment of the OP's imagination since no real questions are answered.
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Old 10-20-2021, 06:37 PM   #25
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........ a pigment of the OP's imagination.....
Well, that colors the discussion.
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Old 10-20-2021, 06:41 PM   #26
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OK, OK, here is the Mutual Fund I am talking about:

CPODX (Morgan Stanley Insight I)

Here is some more information for your reading pleasure:

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-f...rge-cap-funds/
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Old 10-20-2021, 06:42 PM   #27
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Yep, we all share that kind of information here. And if I found a fund I liked I would share the sticker symbol so people could pick it apart, because that’s what I would want. Critique on something I am missing with that fund perhaps and Believe it or not it has happened before. As a matter of fact, many of the articles recommending mutual funds when actually compared to their benchmark are obviously not worth it or there is a better mutual fund easily found. Or, I guess I could just be a tease or worse.
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Old 10-20-2021, 07:06 PM   #28
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Yep, we all share that kind of information here. And if I found a fund I liked I would share the sticker symbol so people could pick it apart, because that’s what I would want. Critique on something I am missing with that fund perhaps and Believe it or not it has happened before.
+1

OP, beware of becoming a legend in your own mind. I would much rather have folks who I assume are more knowledgeable than me pick apart my research, than think I know better than them. The analogy is why many of us came to this forum to have others pick apart our finances when we asked "can I retire?" - no one can know everything, and it is always best to get multiple perspectives.
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Old 10-20-2021, 07:12 PM   #29
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I think the OP was concerned that if he shared the ticker that we would all jump on his stellar research and bid up the price of this mythical outstanding large growth fund.
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Old 10-20-2021, 07:44 PM   #30
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Another way to look at this is to hypothesize that a person with such talent exists and ask why he or she would make their skills available to retail investors for a pittance. French discusses this in that video I linked. I think the answer is not. IF such a person or people exist, they are lying by the pool on their megayachts or on the beachs of their private islands. Why would they keep working for others? Answer IMO is that they wouldn't. Why would they?
While I agree that outperformance is likely random, this is one of the most common yet least persuasive arguments.

How would said person know they had such talent and keep it to themselves? IRL, they would get their Ivy MBA and start with VG/Fido/Black Rock or a hedge fund as a junior for a decade. Then if they were really good they would get to manage a large mutual fund. It would take another 10 years for them to "prove" outperformance. Then at 45ish they get to decide do I play with OPM and make $XM/year salary/bonus or strike out on my own with whatever capital I have accumulated. Some would do the latter, but many would "diversify" by taking the megacorp OPM income and investing their own capital in parallel. Honestly, outperforming the market by one or two percent (which is what we are talking about when we say "beat peers") isn't some secret sauce that will make an individual wealthy in just a few years.

The ones that make bank in hedge funds in their 20s/30s are "aggros" as we say in poker. But that is a high variance game and it is not obvious it is best for any individual player due to the variance. Likely that more bust out than win.
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Old 10-20-2021, 08:08 PM   #31
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Old 10-20-2021, 08:54 PM   #32
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and the suckers that did all the research & invested only to find out PP /= FP. And they lost their shirt. Magellen fund was a top performer. The last 5 years it hasn't beat the Vanguard Total Market
Sure. But you make a mistake assuming a fund must beat its benchmark for each five year period don't you think? It's a relatively short time in the market.
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Old 10-20-2021, 09:20 PM   #33
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I think the OP was concerned that if he shared the ticker that we would all jump on his stellar research and bid up the price of this mythical outstanding large growth fund.


Wouldn’t that be a good thing?
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Old 10-20-2021, 10:03 PM   #34
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He said that he hasn't bought it yet. Besides, I was being sarcastic.
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Old 10-20-2021, 10:12 PM   #35
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Only one way to determine if the OP has actually found a consistent winner and that is for him to purchase the fund, then identify it for us (eliminates the possibility we will run up the price ). He can then return here in 20 years and show what a mistake we made by not buying it.
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Old 10-20-2021, 10:29 PM   #36
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It can't be Renaissance Technologies’ famed Medallion fund, available only to current and former partners, as regular folks can't buy in.
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Old 10-20-2021, 11:01 PM   #37
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This post has me thinking, "Haven't heard from Boho in awhile".
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Old 10-21-2021, 05:16 AM   #38
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Did I miss something or didn't OP name the fund in post 27? Maybe time to take a look and not dump on OP (at least until evaluating the fund for yourself.)

I'm not knowledgeable enough to comment on the info found in the post, but it seems like the fund has done well - for its short history. I'm not buying it as I have my AA set up the way I want it.

Good luck to OP - whatever you decide. Maybe check back here if we haven't driven you off!
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Old 10-21-2021, 06:15 AM   #39
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Did I miss something or didn't OP name the fund in post 27? Maybe time to take a look and not dump on OP (at least until evaluating the fund for yourself.)

I'm not knowledgeable enough to comment on the info found in the post, but it seems like the fund has done well - for its short history. I'm not buying it as I have my AA set up the way I want it.

Good luck to OP - whatever you decide. Maybe check back here if we haven't driven you off!
+1 I was about to post something about how much fun it is to watch a new troll pester everybody and then Koolau pointed out how easy it is to skip by key posts when you are skimming So, CPODX it is.
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Old 10-21-2021, 06:18 AM   #40
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80% of Five star managed funds rated by Morningstar for the past 5 years end up in the bottom 25% of funds in the next five years. Managers get return above the market, until they don't. Don't think you can drink the Kool-ade without getting a little of the poison too. There are no secrets in the market that aren't already known be someone.
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