@Digital Nomad, one of the nice things about living in the US is that we are free to believe whatever we want. Belief in a flat earth has had long-term popularity; ivermectin is a more recent fad. Personally, I believe that I'll never develop a taste for Brussels sprouts.
In the context of investing my training as a scientist and engineer informs my conclusions and actions.
First, I will say that your belief in superior managers is entirely understandable. The investment industry pushes this myth because its falsification is an existential threat to all those Porsches in all those mini-mansion garages. They need your unquestioning loyalty to the myth and they spend a lot of money to maintain it.
Second, I will say that my research over many years says that you are completely wrong. I suggest that you abandon this thread now and go to spend a few months educating yourself. Here are some suggestions, in no particular order:
"A Random Walk Down Wall Street" by Burton Malkiel
https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/0393330338 This is the grandaddy of them all.
"Winning the Loser's Game" by Charles Ellis
https://www.amazon.com/Winning-Losers-Game-Strategies-Successful-dp-1264258461/dp/1264258461 (latest edition, May 2021) Ellis does an excellent job of explaining his theory on
why the market is random.
"Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Taleb:
https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219 The title tells all.
"Unconventional Success" by David Swensen
https://www.amazon.com/Unconventional-Success-Fundamental-Approach-Investment/dp/0743228383 A little older title but still well worth studying.
Fifty years ago (1967), Michael Jensen reported on his study of 115 mutual funds, thus: :
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=244153 "The evidence on mutual fund performance (aka professional speculators) indicates not only that these 115 mutual funds were on average not able to predict security prices well enough to outperform a buy-the-market-and-hold policy, but also that
there is very little evidence that any individual fund was able to do significantly better than that which we expected from mere random chance." (Later in his career, Jensen was awarded a Nobel prize for other investing insights.)
Fama/French "Luck Versus Skill in the Cross Section of Mutual Fund Returns" :
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1356021 (This is the paper that French refers to in the video I linked.)
Here is an interesting one, something we tend to forget: Stock-picking is a Keynesian beauty contest, not really a business forecasting exercise.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest)
Finally:
S&P SPIVA gateway:
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/spiva/#/
S&P Manager Persistence gateway:
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indexology/core/persistence-scorecard/ Here is decades of data; I suggest that you study particularly the Manager Persistence reports.
If those are not enough, let me know. I have more.